While the real estate industry and its dependants continue to trump residential property as an investment, many Australians are becoming increasingly frustrated with a growing lack of affordability of capital city housing. The problem is also spreading to the political sphere, with immigration levels and a distorted tax system starting to weigh on the Rudd government.
Despite an alleged housing shortage being blamed for the recent price rises and lack of affordability, statistics indicate that over the past two decades, only in one or two (recent) years have seen housing construction not keep up with population growth. Further, while median prices rose by more than 11% across Australian in 2009 (and by 16% in Melbourne), rental costs rose by less than 4%. If there really was a desperate housing shortage, that would be borne by rising rentals rather than merely increasing house prices.
The more likely reason for the worsening affordability of housing is due to Australians increasing use of debt and spending relatively more on their homes than ever before. The ratio of household disposable income to property prices has risen to six times in most capital cities — double the long-term average.
While this indicates that Australian housing is expensive (in relative terms) it doesn’t explain why Australians have been willing to pay more for housing than they did historically. In simple terms, Australians, more than anyone in the world, value owning their own home rather than renting a dwelling.
But why is this so?
There are obvious benefits to owning a home. Aside from the practical aspects of being able to tend to a garden and nail a plasma screen onto a wall, many people prefer the security and status of owning their own home. However, everything has a price — and Australians appear willing to pay an extraordinarily high one for those luxuries.
Delving more into the security aspect, this is where rental laws become relevant. Australian rental regulations are drafted heavily in favour of landlords, most notably, with respect to long-term rentals (like those often seen in Europe). For example, no matter how long a tenant has been residing in a property, if they no longer have a binding lease agreement, they can be asked to depart in 60 days should the owner wish to sell the property, or move in themselves. It is hard to make a rental house a home when you can be evicted in a couple of months.
Further, in Victoria, for example, if no lease is on foot, landlords are able to increase the rental amount every six months without offering the tenant a new lease agreement. Further, tenants can be evicted from the property, without reason, upon four months’ notice. As such, tenants have no security of tenure, and are captive to either constant rent increases or the substantial inconvenience of having to relocate to another property.
While these laws may not be so problematic in the event of a renter’s market (which is generally considered a vacancy rate higher than 5%), in the current market where vacancy rates can be a low a 1% in certain suburbs, they place tenants in an unenviable bargaining position, being forced to accept regular rental increases due to the hassle associated with relocating and the difficulty in finding alternative rental accommodation.
Rental laws are under the auspices the state governments, which have allowed the problem to escalate, while at the same time restricting planning, which increases the cost to develop new properties.
While changing rental laws would not be a cure for the housing affordability crisis, it would represent a key improvement to the desirability of renting (compared with owning). The most obvious change would be to provide additional protection for tenants to prevent landlords from increasing the rental without offering the tenant a new lease. This will provide tenants with a greater degree of certainty.
Another reasonable change would be to increase the notice periods before a tenant can be evicted depending on how long they have been a resident in the property (perhaps increasing it to one month per year they have been a resident). Terry Burke, professor of Housing Studies at Swinburne University, suggested an alternative range of reforms, including “greater access to longer leases of up to 10 years, US-style rent control and minimum quality standards for rental properties”.
Ultimately, a balance needs to be found between ensuring that landlords are able to achieve a satisfactory return on their investment and that renters are afforded a degree of protection to improve the desirability of renting compared with borrowing to buy a home. Until that happens, Australians will continue to pay far more than the intrinsic value for properties, worsening housing affordability.
Rents are apparently rising. Rental growth of up to 8% has been tipped for most Australian capitals by the end of the year. The reasons given include higher interest rates, tightening vacancy rate, the end of the first home owner boost and even rising house prices. Median rents dropped last year, apparently because interest rates fell and first home buyers jumped into the market. Really?
The residential rental market is misunderstood and often misreported. It is a fallacy that an increase in costs will lead to higher rents as landlords seek to maintain returns. Statistical analysis shows the rising (and falling) interest rates have little direct relationship with a change in rent. Nor do house price movements impact much on rent; and government interference (in this case the recent boost) often has the contradictory affect. Rent is impacted (almost entirely) by the vacancy rate.
The anecdotal evidence (and my own experience) suggests that vacancy rates are much higher than the real estate industry suggests. For example, in late 2007 the REIQ replaced its traditional real estate sample with vacancy rate statistics from the Queensland Government. Overnight, the Brisbane vacancy rate jumped from 1.8% to 2.2% and today (as at March 2010) is around 3.8%, which is much higher than the other Australian capitals (and three times higher when compared to Sydney and Melbourne) where the real estate industry still remains the sole source of the data. The latest government figures show a 4% vacancy rate for the balance of Queensland.
A vacancy rate between 3% and 5% is considered to be slightly oversupplied. The Queensland vacancy rate was close to 4% for much of last year and hence the fall in rents during 2009. Can rents really rise by 8% this year if the vacancy rate is so high? A survey of rental properties across Brisbane shows a 20% increase the number of vacancies over the last six months alone. Similar stats apply to the other capitals as well. It still appears to be a renter’s market.
So why are median rents rising? Statistical noise is the answer. This time last year there were more cheaper rental properties being rented than there is today. During 2009, first home buyers fuelled by the boost, bought many of these more affordable properties from investors. Analysis of rental bonds shows many of these cheaper properties are no longer available for rent, so there are fewer in the overall mix, lifting median rents.
In light of this information, existing landlords might need to temper their expectations and new investors should be somewhat conservative on a likely rental return.
I would agree with the comment above, that rents are decoupled from house prices, in NSW at least. Demand would almost certainly be the only driver.
Being a landlord (excepting maybe ‘slum’ landlord) doesn’t make sense as an economic activity in its own right. After tax (land etc), costs and the lost opportunity cost on the capital there is no real chance of European like, long term annuity from a rental property. The capital gain is the only reason that an investor would be in rental properties.
I fear that as the inevitable slowdown in capital gain occurs, renting out a property will become significantly less attractive and the supply will lessen. Tighter rental controls can only excaberate this. This may make owner occupier housing more affordable, but I would not want to be a renter.
Also rents are heavily regulated, more so than house prices. Landlords have to show that rent increases are “reasonable”. Renters can also sign longer leases at a fixed rent so both parties have certainty of rent. That is why they are “sticky” and don’t move quickly in response to changes in supply and demand. (very much like wages in that respect)
This rental factor of the over-all Australian Housing Market has n’t really been covered that much…but as usual, it’s very obvious that our friends in the Real estate Industry jump at any opportunity to blur the lines and make a link between rental affordbility and the cost of housing.
As Adam points out…there is no real link at all, just more of the same Real Estate Industry gobbledegook spin and bullshit.
The Truth, The Truth….my Kingdom for the Truth.