As the price of housing continues to escalate and government support for the sector continues (the Victorian government recently upped the first home owner’s grant on new houses), a valid question has arisen — is housing a productive way to spend personal (and public) money? Or should the government be doing its best to ensure a soft landing for the residential property sector?
Rismark chief and Business Spectator columnist Chris Joye certainly believes that it is, noting recently that “owning a home is a highly ‘productive’ economic activity. No sane person would dispute this”.
However, it could be argued that Joye equates an investment being “productive” with it also being “useful” to its owner. Specifically, the productivity of asset is in some way a reflective of its price — if an asset is over-priced, its benefit would be minimal compared with the capital required to be spent acquiring or creating that asset. That over-priced asset can still be useful to the owner.
Housing serves a very useful purpose of providing shelter. Further, those who own residential property as an investment asset are able to earn a commercial return (through rental income) and possibly capital growth (which is a reflection of the possibility of increased rentals in future years). In his blog, Joye pointed to several academic studies confirming the productive value of housing, such as a 2007 Federal Reserve Study which noted:
Household capital directly affects labour productivity. For example, analogous to the maintenance required to keep business capital in operating condition, workers must engage in rest, relaxation, and personal care to supply labour effectively. As a family grows, the size of its housing limits the quality of these “regeneration” activities. So, by increasing the size of its house, a household increases the productivity of its labour.
The Federal Reserve study appears to conclude that workers need shelter to be productive, apropos, housing is productive.
Housing creates economic activity in its development stage. The act of constructing a dwelling leads to employment for a large number of people (both directly in the building process, and indirectly, in creating the inputs/materials, formation of finance, sales and marketing), leading to an initial boost to economic activity (which is multiplied as those people spend the money they earn in the construction process). However, once a property is constructed, it serves the sole purpose of providing shelter, without adding to economic activity (other than for usually minor maintenance issues).
By contrast, capital invested in a business should continue to be productive to an economy even after the initial investment (although that will depend somewhat on the type of business and the cost of the investment). This is largely because economic growth (and ultimately, living standards) is spurred by two factors — population growth and technological improvement. Such technological improvement is created by businesses using capital to improve processes (efficiency gains) and developing new products and services. Think of Ford developing the production line or Cyrus McCormick’s creation of the “Reaper” which revolutionised farming practices. Not too many great technological leaps occurred while someone was sitting in their living room watching the rugby on a 50-inch plasma.
The issue is more relevant as Australians spend more money (as a proportion of their net worth) on property. Australians who live in capital cities now devote approximately six times their disposable income on property purchases — traditionally, Australians spent less than three times their income on their principal dwelling. That means that monies that would previously have been invested in real businesses are now being spent on housing.
Further, the size and luxuriousness of the housing structures have also substantially increased in recent decades — while that serves to ensure that Australians are living more “comfortably” and creates a short-term boost in living standards, it creates little additional productivity (if the goal of housing is to merely provide “shelter”, the construction of such “McMansions” leads to spending far more capital on housing than what is actually required). So even if housing could be “productive” — like investing in dot.com businesses in the late 1990s, the market has become so distorted that the marginal benefit from investment in the sector is minimal.
Adapting the theory to Australia now, the question remains — are we better off investing our scarce capital (savings) in buying larger and more expensive houses or by investing in real businesses?
When an economy invests in business, those businesses generate organic growth by devoting a portion of their capital to technological improvements. (Further, business owners are not only motivated to continually increase profits, they will also be able to compound their capital by reinvesting in the business itself). By contrast, investment in housing creates an initial burst of growth, but little other benefits after that point. The problem is exacerbated when people spend money to build a larger and more luxurious house than is necessary. (Further, the economic boost is only created for new housing — not the purchase of existing housing stock, which creates economic waste through needless transaction fees).
In 2009, an apartment was purchased in East Melbourne for almost $20 million — that money was largely collected by the developer who constructed the building. The $20 million spent will no doubt provide shelter to its occupants, but that same shelter could most likely have been purchased elsewhere for a fraction of that sum, with the monies instead being used by a business to develop new products or services.
The Australian housing bubble, led by Melbourne (which recorded price growth of almost 30% in the past 12 months) is causing investment in over-priced property to the detriment of dynamic business. This may be “productive” for real estate agents or mortgage brokers, but not for the Australian economy.
It’s funny how people forget. The very thing that was designed to unlock the productivity of housing investment were the much maligned “Mortgage backed Securities”. Turning mortgage repayments into bonds that could be bought and sold by businesses and/or government and invested in other projects that could contribute more to economic growth.
Funny that Adam has been critical of these products in the past when they were designed to perform the very role he encourages here (whilst still providing housing for the punters)
Great article.
This gets to the very heart of why our economy has become so polarised to just a few sectors providing the majority of our imports.
So many great ideas and inventions that Australians have are forced offshore – because there is no capital here to support new innovative ideas and industries.
That’s because as you’ve pointed out all of our spare capital is being wicked up by these houses that everyone is so obsessed about.
When all we have to rely on to get foreign income is digging up minerals and agriculture (when its raining & we have enough water) and educating foreigners in our universities and colleges.
No wonder then that an additional tax on one sector – the mining sector – results in a disproportionate amount of scrutiny and whinging – because a lot of people think that it’s the only industry that we can rely on to make us money.
We need to immediately end the negative gearing on housing – and free up the capital that this country has for more productive uses.
How else will we pay our way in the world when all the minerals are gone?
We can’t take Dubai’s example of diversifying away from one income source!
To build a big house requires a block of land and a big mortgage. New developments are a long way from anywhere. So a family needs 2 cars and workers need to travel long distances each day. Thus they need to work longer to pay the large mortgages, the car and fuel costs and on top of that there is travel time. Cheaper housing close to work and amenities would be more productive even if dwellings are smaller.
Rismark being a real estate business it is not surprising Chris Joye is spruiking real estate.
Over capitalizing in realestate and housing at the expense of business investment is a topic that has been well covered by a variety of people on this board, but none better than this guy Schwab.
This country used to live off the back of a sheep, but now it lives off the equity in the back of a house.
<<<>>>>
Too true.