The government appears to have definitely stopped its loss of support, with another poll today confirming its fall from its previous position of electoral dominance has ended.
On Monday, Essential Research showed the first rise in government support in weeks. Today’s Morgan polling shows a similar small rise. Morgan Poll’s telephone poll on Wednesday and Thursday nights showed a small increase in Labor support, taking them back to 50:50 on a 2PP basis. A face-to-face poll conducted early in the week showed a 4% rise in ALP support, taking the 2PP back to 54.5-45.5%.
However, there was mixed news for the government on voters’ feelings about the RSPT. There has been a small lift in support over the past two weeks for the tax, and a drop in opposition, but more people still oppose the tax (48%) than support it (44%), although there is very strong support for other measures in the government’s response to the Henry Review, including the superannuation increase. Support for the RSPT is still below where it was in the immediate aftermath of its announcement.
A strong issue for voters supporting the tax — and one hitherto untapped by the government — is the perception that foreign mining companies are simply sending profits from the resources boom overseas and Australia is not getting any return on its resources. Reasons for opposing the tax are much more diffuse, with concerns about the impact on superannuation and foreign investment and the belief that mining companies pay enough tax already.
However, voters in general thought the government’s proposals would both be good for them individually and, by a narrow margin, good for Australia.
There is good reason for the government to be encouraged by these figures. Scare campaigns tend to dissipate the longer they go on as people move on from an emotional response to the scare and on to to a more rational evaluation.
Hopefully these polling figures will encourage the government to prosecute their case more forcefully and not give away unreasonable and unnecessary concessions.
My personal belief is that the govt has been biding its time.
And doing so for two reasons:1) they don’t want to shoot off all its bullets too early, and they haven’t got a bagfull of goodies to give away; 2) the longer they leave Abbott and his cohort to themselves, the more rudderless they seem (no pun intended).
If Rudd does not plant ‘new’ policies for Abbott to rail against … Abbott leaves clear air because of his lack of policy. And negative or scare campaigns, as David said above, only have a short lifespan before they become grating, or at the very least, redundant.
The phrases “great big new tax” and “Pink batts” has been so overused that the electorate is beginning to switch off. A little electoral ‘premature ejacluation’ I think.
Notwithstanding David’s earlier confident prediction about a restoration in Rudd’s ascendency, the government would be at least drawing a sigh of relief that the cataclysmic drop in Labor’s primary vote has bottomed out.
But I dont think Rudd is threatened only by Abbott. Paul Kelly has an interesting an analysis to-day, in which he contends that Labor is bleeding to the Rght and the Left.
Alot of the hard Left are disaffected with Rudd and are drifting to the Greens. I know the conventional wisdom is that a Green vote is a Labor vote, but I’m not so sure this time around.
What is really going to be interesting is whether the miners, mining company shareholders, and superannuants are holding Rudd responsible in part, or total, for the very real threats to their livelihooods and retirement plans.
Anything coming from the Australian is bias and i class it as censorship , as its a Fiiberal Party Gazette and phony tony can do no harm , so the readers only see ruperts right wing vision of the world. The papers overplayed the 4 deaths, the lack of regulation and no training in the business has been going on for over 10 years and 2 have been charged. Go look at deaths in any industry over 15 years or more and the building industry is a dangerous place , with things falling off towers. Look at the mining deaths over 15-20 years , dont see the fibs shaming the poor miners. How many homes have been insulated and use less power/money because off it, OVER 1 Million Homes done. The parents dont want their children s deaths used as a political football. The ABC is slowly turning right a round, sad i liked Insiders and the brekky show, has rupert moved in to the ABC ?