Are Australian voters turning Green? Yesterday’s Newspoll had the Australian Greens primary vote at a whopping 16%, the first time they’ve ever received more than 13% of the vote. What’s happened?
Is this a disaffected progressive vote angry at the treatment of asylum seekers and the lack of an ETS? Does it involve voters not wanting Tony Abbott as leader?
Possum Comitatus examined whether the poll was a rogue or not, comparing Greens results in Newspolls since 2008.
Rogue or not, it’s obviously got both sides of politics concerned.
As Richard Farmer wrote yesterday in Crikey [paywalled]:
That public opinion recently has turned against both Labor and the Coalition Liberal and National parties is no surprise. The leadership of both has shown itself to be untrustworthy. That voters are looking for an honest alternative is what I for one would hope for. That Greens leader Bob Brown’s party might have some views that people disagree with does not stop them being attracted to his straight forward comments. Consistently saying what you think beats shiftiness every time.
With some ALP seats only held by a small margin (Lindsay Tanner’s seat of Melbourne is at serious risk of being lost to the Greens), current figures have one in eight Kevin07 voters, now saying that they’ll vote for the Greens.
Greens’ leader Bob Brown has warned Kevin Rudd about assuming that Greens voters will direct their preferences to the ALP.
So is the tide changing? Here’s what the punters are saying about the voters Greenwash:
The Australian
George Megalogenis: Two parties unpreferred
The only consolation for Labor is their combined primary vote with the Greens remains what it was in 2007, at around 51 per cent.
Peter van Onselen: If Newspoll numbers hold, ALP will win
And with no other viable minor party for conservative protest voters unhappy with the new mining tax but unimpressed with the opposition, it could be that the Greens vote isn’t as left-leaning at this election as it usually is.
Peter van Onselen: Let’s face it, the future is not bright for either helmsmen
If the downward spiral continues, Newspoll might need to think about including Greens leader Bob Brown in the preferred prime minister stakes. Nick Clegg eat your heart out.
The Age
Farrah Tomazin: Progressives look askance and Labor fears a Green tide
Ever since the Rudd Government shelved its emissions trading scheme and took a harder stance against boat people, the party’s stocks have taken a hit among its progressive support base.
Tim Colebatch: Disaffected wave could unseat ministers
Third parties often win in the polls, but lose in the booths. Six months before an election is the time most people express discontent with sitting governments. By election day, they usually do better than polls suggested they would, as voters are bombarded with well-targeted handouts and campaign messages, and recoil from the alternatives.
Sydney Morning Herald
David Marr: Vitriol in front of the doors, parties behind closed ones
Abetz was delivering the opposition’s message of the day: don’t hover with the Greens, come right over.
The Daily Telegraph
Malcolm Farr: What am I bid for this Green preference?
Tony Abbott’s Coalition is considering dumping a habit of an electoral lifetime by hunting Green preferences. Let’s be clear. These are Bob Brown’s Australian Greens who in previous elections the Libs and Nats have held at arm’s length and condemned as the far left and soft on drugs or worse.
Now watch for the craven green vote grab. They’ll do something eye catching, say squish the already-dead pulp mill, and they’ve already finally done the whale legal action thing. But what neither party realises is that the swing to the Greens is not really about environmental issues but actually about integrity. They’ll probably have to look that word up in their dictionaries though.
Its hardly surprising that the green primary vote has decreased dramatically, Labor has shifted so far to the right and disenfranchised so many left of centre voters and also those who want more integrity in Australian politics. Rudds recent back flip on spending public money on Labor propaganda is a prime example of why people are moving to the greens. Also issues such as the internet filter and their opposition to gay marriage has shown how much labor is endowed to the Christian right and their ability to push forth with terrible policies no matter how many stakeholders say it is a bad idea.
The right side of politics hasn’t worked for the voters, so maybe it’s time to have a think about the left. When the two major parties look pretty much the same, the Greens look refreshingly different.
And a choice between the back flip king and the budgie smuggler – neither look good. Bring on the next election!
I tend to agree with most of the comments and analyses here. Personally I think asylum seekers and the CPRS are driving most of the vote Left, but that’s all postulation.
Bob Brown’s comments that Labor might not get the preference flow they are expecting is interesting. It is probably the more politically aware cohort (Greens voters) and the sort who are likely to be conscious about how their preferences flow.
Below the line people, below the line.
As far as electing Parties goes, we’ve tried avarice, deceit, theft, corruption, shiftiness, ‘cleverness’, Inperialistic, idealogues, Merchant Bankers, outright liers, Christian fanatics, and famous people parachuted into safe seats. Maybe it’s time we give inexperience a go.