So the 2010 election looks headed for a relatively simple contest. It’s no longer Tony Abbott versus Kevin Rudd. It’s several large, wealthy transnational companies — Rio Tinto, BHP-Billiton, Xstrata, News Ltd — versus Labor.
The transnationals have very deep pockets, are well-led, single-minded and can draw extensively on the necessary talent required to convince voters of the need to remove a once-popular government from power.
Labor has… well, not much that I can think of. An incompetent leader who might have finally worked out he has a real problem with voters’ perception of him, but does not appear to have much of a clue about what to do about it.
The mainstream media will be the battleground. One of the transnationals owns much of it; the rest will be a contested space in which an outgunned Government will attempt, through both advertising and political smarts (OK, stop laughing up the back), to combat a clever, very expensive campaign run by the mining industry.
There’s only one thing that concerns the miners at this point: the possibility that the Government might offer a reasonable compromise — one sufficient to leave them looking obstinate and obstructionist in the eyes of voters.
This is a real concern. A source within one of the big four consultancy firms has told Crikey that the miners have commissioned modeling, in anticipation of a Government compromise offer, intended to demonstrate that a move along the lines of the compromise repeatedly rumoured to be on the cards — a doubling of the 6% cut-in rate, and the abandonment of transferability and deductibility of deductions — will only leave the sector slightly better off than the RSPT. The purpose is to circumvent any benefit for the Government from moving to end the stand-off.
That’s because the big miners want to get rid of the Government, not just get rid of the RSPT. They are particularly concerned about the possibility of the Greens holding the balance of power after July next year, driving the Government in effect leftward on issues like climate change. Far better to have a compliant and mining-friendly Liberal Party in office that will reintroduce aspects of Workchoices.
News Ltd made its intentions clear with a series of blatant lies in The Weekend Australian suggesting that Kevin Rudd’s leadership was in effect dependent on the outcome of today’s Newspoll.
There is anger in Caucus, anger at Rudd and his seeming obliviousness to the need for a different management approach. MPs are deeply frustrated and angered because they sense the same arrogance from Rudd’s office as they saw when he was 20 points ahead in the polls, and wonder how bad things need to get before they realise they need to change. But there’s no mood for a leadership change.
That’s partly because MPs are aware the problem isn’t just Kevin Rudd but the party itself — the lack of anything voters can see that the party clearly stands for.
There’s a lot of sloppy journalism today about the alleged Federal implications of the Penrith by-election — apparently generations of evidence voters persistently vote differently at State and Federal levels doesn’t wash with some commentators. There are no Federal implications. The problem is not one by-election, however disastrous — quite why anyone in NSW is voting for Labor at the moment must be considered one of the great mysteries of politics — but of years of government that eschewed real action and reform in favour of spin, self-obsession, constant policy reannouncement and reactive managerialism.
This has damaged Labor not just in NSW but across the eastern states, and federally as well. And this year Rudd has appeared to play by the NSW Labor playbook, and magnified the damage. Switching to Julia Gillard isn’t going to instantly restore long-term perceptions of Labor.
It is this poorly-led, damaged outfit that must fight off a determined effort by powerful interests to change the government. I wouldn’t bet on them at this point, but there’s a ways to go yet and the Opposition still seems to have the same problem Labor has — a leader who is weighing them down.
Kevin Rudd got lucky this morning with Iron Bar Tuckey clubbing his own leader on his tonsured head.
Wilson’s demented claim that the miners missing on a plane in Africa was caused by the RSPT was indeed a clanger.
Wayne Swan yesterday accused some miners of using “strong-arm tactics” but if Wilson’s claim about an aircraft accident are correct, it is Wayne Swan who uses “strong-arm tactics”.
Well, last election Howard got hit by a well funded, well resourced campaign by another set of vested interests, the unions, against a poorly thought out policy decision, workchoices, as said vested interests fought hard on an issue that they considered critical to their future.
It seems only fair that Rudd ‘enjoy’ the same treatment that Howard went through.
It may even install a sense of humility into the man, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Barracking again BK!! How about a bit of balance.
The issue is NOT all about Abbott, nor about the “powerful interests.” It is about Rudd. It is Rudd who has the ignition keys and his hands on the steering wheel. At the moment he is driving us right down the gurgler, and the commentators won’t tell it as it is.
It was fine when Rudd had a fistful of dollars and he posted out cheques and spent money like there was no tomorrow. But now that he is exposed for the wordsmith that he is, and he has no record of doing anything properly – come on Mr Keane, give it to us as it is, from all points of view. Rudd has failed to live up to the spin he sold us, and his time is up.
Why would anyone believe what a politician ‘promised’ prior to an election?
I take pretty much all they say with a generous fistful of salt and vote and for the rabble which are least offensive. There’s that very old joke about how can you tell when a politician is lying?… their lips are moving.
Next time I’ll vote on the basis that I do not want mining magnates and Murdoch formulating government policy.
Dr Harvey M Tarvydas
I am smitten BK, how do you say such a thing ………… “An incompetent leader who might have finally worked out he has a real problem with voters’ perception of him, but does not appear to have much of a clue about what to do about it.”
Lenore Taylor this morning on the ABC was describing a genius.
An awfully significant proportion of the Australian population has a real mental illness about real talent living amongst it which goes way beyond the tall poppy little thing that we preoccupy ourselves with. I know exactly what it’s like personally and am getting quite sick of it.
@ JOHN – Tuckey just hasn’t the smarts to see what’s coming but his ‘attitude’ is perfectly in keeping with the pathetic beliefs being promoted as legitimate thinking (by smart media, smart pollies, smart experts etc) that, for example, PM Rudd just wasn’t a good enough carpenter, electrician to take on all the amazing amount of insulation he wished to achieve and do a good job.
In other smart places in this world (and maybe other smart planets) it would be thought the carpenters and electricians are good enough surely.
What induces weird malfunction of population intelligence, you don’t know nor do our smart psychologists and psychiatrists who in Australia are still trying to understand simple depression and stuffing it up. I have met some real talents in this area but they are keeping a low profile till they finish their study of poppies.