Ever since Julia Gillard powered into the prime ministership last week, everyone has been asking the key question: when’s the election? The media is in a frenzy to be the first to pick it, but no one is quite in agreement.
Should she go while she’s high in the polls in the honeymoon period? Or wait a few more months for the electorate to get to know her better as PM?
Here’s what we know so far:
- Gillard declared on The 7:30 Report that the election will be this year.
- Gillard won’t move into the Lodge until she wins the election
- She made very minimal changes to the front bench
- Rudd will only get a ministerial post after Gillard wins the election
- Joe Hockey said “I expect the election to be called this weekend … or the following weekend at the latest.”
And we’re not immune to the election date fever here at Crikey. In fact, we’re running a competition to pick the date, available to subscribers only, so head over and get your entries in.
Here’s what the pundits are picking:
The Australian
Jack the Insider: The polls toll for Julia Gillard
She will have to put her own stamp on the job and she has little time to do so if, as seems likely, we head off to the polls in August.
ABC
Mark DeBono: Labor candidates told to prepare for August poll
The ABC understands an email was circulated this morning with advice that an election could be called for as early as August 7 or 14 and the announcement is likely to be made on Friday.
The Age
Michelle Grattan: Election to be sooner not later
But Ms Gillard needs some breathing space for bedding down difficult issues, notably the mining tax, and also for Labor to recalibrate its campaign, planned for months around Kevin Rudd
The Sydney Morning Herald
Phillip Coorey: Snap poll option sparks division in Labor ranks
There is fevered speculation in Canberra and within sections of the ALP that Ms Gillard wants to call an election for August, possibly as early as August 14.
…
A senior party figure said yesterday, however, that an emerging countervailing view inside the Labor Party was to let the public see Ms Gillard as Prime Minister for a while and call the election for October
The Daily Telegraph
Simon Benson and Sue Dunlevy: Prime Minister Julia Gillard set to call federal election on August 28 or October 10
August 28 and October 10 have emerged as the most likely dates for a federal election, with senior Labor sources dismissing talk Prime Minister Julia Gillard may this weekend call a snap poll.
There has to be an early election if it is only to prevent the usual suspects spreading more dis-information! There is clearly at present no viable alternative to the current government. Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce must never be in a position to represent Australia internationally and be in control of our finances? We would most likely lose any credibility and become a laughing stock worldwide. They, and their team, just do not have the wherewithal and are therefore unelectable!
I was expecting Rudd to call an October election, but I’m not sure that Gillard would want to wait that long to gain the legitimization of her coup.
However, she can’t go into an election without having clear positions on the issues that dogged Rudd’s tenure as well as clear statements of Labor’s policies for a second term.
I think most people would agree that while the RSPT issue is unresolved it would be folly to face the people, as the anti-RSPT ad campaign would be ramped up and, by asking for their cessation pending negotiations, Gillard has already signalled that those ads have had an impact on her and Labor.
So, the question is: when would she expect the RSPT matter to be resolved favourably? I think it would be reasonable for her to expect that to be sorted by August, but an election that close would not necessarily allow her sufficient time to enunciate Labor’s second term agenda.
I don’t think an August election would necessarily wrong-foot the Coalition, so I’m discounting the early strike advantage on those grounds.
Reasonable arguments SOCRATEASE!
However, the “expectations” created for the remaining “unresolved” issues are mainly, but not only, “hyped” by the media for obvious reasons. After taking a deep breath we all know, with goodwill, reasonable negotiated outcomes will be be achieved sooner or later. The change in the mining tax for example, as I understand it, will not even come into effect within the next year or so. That’s why it so important not to be distracted by the often “contrived” complexity of the issues presented by some of the “media”. The main focus therefore must remain on underlying competency, vision and effective leadership or the lack thereof! The choice is easy!
It feels like we’re at a baby shower, playing a game to guess the date our friend goes into Labor pains for the first time and her new little bub arrives. The prize up for grabs for guessing correctly? Perhaps a plastic dummy to spit.
Labor candidates lining up for photo’s with Julia would be a sure fire signal of an impending date.
I reckon as soon as they buy a couple of miners off to at least create equal noise as Twiggy and Mrs Palmer it’ll be on. 14 August!