Labor is keeping a strong lead over the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, according to today’s Essential Report poll.
Labor has maintained its primary vote and the Coalition has moved up marginally to 39% — but not quite enough to change Labor’s 55-45% 2PP lead in the poll taken just before and after the calling of the election on Saturday.
The Greens continue to perform strongly, maintaining 13% of the primary vote. This morning, the ALP and the Greens announced a preference deal this morning covering the Senate and several House of Representatives seats (according to one media outlet, 50 seats).
Julia Gillard has strengthened her approval rating to 52%, and while her total disapproval rating has also increased to 30% since July 5, she still has a net approval level of 22 points.
There is some good news for Tony Abbott, who has improved on his dismal approval ratings of earlier this month. His numbers have improved since July 5: approval of his performance is 40%, disapproval 44%, net approval level -4 points.
However, Gillard has extended her already significant lead as Preferred Prime Minister, picking up four points to move to 53%, while Abbott has lost three points and now has less than half Gillard’s numbers, 26%.
Essential also asked voters to identify the issues that would be most important for them in deciding how they would vote. Economic management remains the key issue, identified by 38% of voters as the most important (and 63% overall nominated it as one of their top three issues). Health is second, identified by 16% of voters — more than when the same question was asked back in May (it was 55% overall as a top 3 issue). It’s a distant third for protecting jobs — 7% and 24% overall, down five points since May. Treatment of asylum seekers does not rate as a potential vote changer — only 4% of voters said it was their most important issue, and 11% nominated it as one of their top three (although the accepted wisdom is that those voters are swinging voters in marginal seats). That puts it below issues such as leadership (6%), the environment (5%) and on the same level as tax and climate change.
Managing population growth was identified by only 1% of voters as their key issue, although 12% overall nominated it, the same as back in May.
There’s mixed results for the parties on perceptions of who is best at handling these key issues. The Opposition still leads Labor on economic management, but the gap is six points (38% say the Liberals can best be trusted to manage the economy, 32% say Labor) and there are a lot of Don’t Knows. Labor has a strong 11-point lead on health, 37-37%, but with even higher Don’t Knows. On jobs, however, Labor has a massive lead, 42-28%.
But tellingly, both sides are about the same on addressing climate change (18-16%), and the Greens are way ahead — 36% of voters trust the Greens to best handle climate change. The Greens also lead on “protecting the environment” and “ensuring a quality water supply”. Labor also has a big lead on education — 41-25% and IR (45-24%). The Coalition’s biggest leads are on national security — 30-25%, and asylum seekers, 29-23%.
Why the fuck are the bloody pollsters still even asking about asylum seekers in the same breath as things like jobs? They are human beings you lousy freaks.
BK wrote: “asylum seekers does not rate as a potential vote changer — only 4% of voters said it was their most important issue”
Right, but as also pointed out, it might be more significant in those “redneck” electorates–and actually even 4% is pretty significant in many of these at-risk electorates. In the weekend Age (theage.com.au/federal-election/theres-something-about-lindsay-20100717-10f4v.html) a typical voter in Lindsay, Jonathan Mascorella, talking about asylum seekers, was worried about the “massive influx of foreign people to our country. This guy is a teacher so it really makes one despair; surely he can count and understand that 5,000 (boat people) or 13,500 (total asylum intake per year) does not in any shape or form justify the use of the word “massive”?
When we moan about Gillard’s pussyfooting around this issue we need to think of J. Mascorella and his ilk, perhaps especially his equivalent in those endangered Queensland electorates where their only source of news (if they bother at all) is News Ltd and trashy tabloid TV current affairs.
I would like to think that a good leader can bring the unwashed public with them on this and other topics that are distorted by the usual media and political suspects. But a technology-loving teacher so ignorant and fearful? It seems hopeless. Australians get what they deserve in politicians.
Only Tony Abbott can halt the boats and put an end to the influx of illegal immigration. These people are shortcut-takers. They reckon if they go sailing here they can gain an advantage over the people who go through the right channels. That is the injustice. I believe in a world where people who do things the right way are rewarded. Get on your vessels and go back to Indonesia, you shortcut-takers.
Push-polling at its finest, Marilyn.
It isn’t, or shouldn’t be, for the parties to decide our preferences. Stop being sheep or lazy, people, and distribute your preferences the way you want.
@Troy
If you genuinely believe that ‘only Tony Abbott can halt the boats and put an end to the ‘influx of illegal immigration’ then kindly explain exactly how your hero will achieve this. Tony Abbott will not be able to stop one single boat, and as he himself said last week, he won’t be able to turn them around either. He’s just blathering catch phrases designed to appeal to the ignorant and the racists among us.
These people are not illegal immigrants, nor are they ‘short cut takers’. They are asylum seekers and as such are entitled under international law to seek asylum in whatever country they choose. There are no ‘right channels’ for these people.
Australia has an annual refugee quota, asylum seekers who are found to be genuine refugees and who are resettled here form part of this quota, not all of it. Go away and read up on the issue and learn a few facts insted of parroting tripe.