It’s all sunshine in politics at the moment, even if that’s just the weather, with Julia Gillard kicking the footy with indigenous kids in Cairns and Tony Abbott playing bowls with the oldies in Brisbane. Yes, the focus today is the quest for Queensland and, of course, its famous resident Kevin Rudd helped to spice things up.

Rudd emerged from his hospital bed for an interview with Phillip Adams on ABC radio last night, his first since he lost the top job. It was a fascinating chat, with Rudd cracking jokes, denying that he was Laurie Oakes’ leaker and saying he’d be back on the hustings campaigning for Gillard, even attending the policy launch if his health allows:

“Well, the bottom line is I can’t just stand idly by at the prospect of Mr Abbott sliding into office by default. I mean elections are really important things Phillip. They’re about who governs the country affects the lives, in a very direct way of every one of your listeners, every family in the country, every business in the country, every community, every school, every hospital…

… So there’s big stuff at stake for the country and I suppose my message more broadly is, the future of KM Rudd is one thing, the future of the country is actually much bigger because it affects 22 million of us, not just one….

…I will be there but on the condition that I don’t have a major relapse before then and secondly, that I’m not a distraction from what I think is a pretty serious debate about what sort of future we want for our country and I don’t think it’s a debate which we can allow — with only two and half weeks to go before D Day, that we can’t allow to be trivialised. It’s too important.”

This could spell trouble for Gillard, since Rudd has “left Julia Gillard and the ALP with a dangerous dilemma,” says Dennis Shanahan at The Australian. “Rudd has positioned himself as a positive force for the re-election of Labor, saying he will do whatever he’s asked to do for the Labor cause. To refuse this offer carries with it the danger for Rudd’s executioners of appearing vengeful against a forgiving victim, as well as the equal danger that at every appearance Rudd makes he’ll draw further attention to his plight.”

Or could Rudd be Gillard’s trump card? “If Rudd can convince wavering voters that Labor’s still worth saving the woman he replaced will have reasons to be grateful,” notes Samantha Maiden in The Oz.

Speaking of old leaders, what happened to John Howard? “There’s no mistaking it, John Howard has been placed in deep freeze,” says Jack the Insider in The Oz.

As Gillard toured Rudd’s home state, she admitted she felt “very, very sympathetic to Kevin and to the hurt” after the events of June 23.

But will she be able to turn the tide in Queensland? “It’s not quite the elephants’ graveyard of politics, but Queensland has the reputation as the state where Labor prime ministers go to meet their doom. And there is nothing they can do about it,” declares Malcolm Farr in The Daily Telegraph.

Queensland and NSW are the two battleground states and it’s where the election will be won and lost. But they are different states, with different issues, notes George Megalogenis. “In Queensland, the young and the old are united by the fear of falling property prices, whereas prices are booming in Sydney and Melbourne. Funny that: NSW, the dud state of politics, will decide the election by default, assuming — as both sides do — that Queensland is a write-off for Labor, while the Coalition will lose seats in Victoria and South Australia,” he writes The Oz.

It’s partially the fault of embattled state ALP governments, says Dennis Atkins. Plus, “from the anger among Queenslanders at the way Kevin Rudd was deposed, to the antagonistic and often anti-Labor media market in Sydney”. But Gillard shouldn’t get too hopeful: “If the votes are going to settle in anything like the direction the recent polls has them heading, it will be drinks at Abbott’s place come August 22,” writes Atkins in The Courier-Mail.

Not everyone agrees. “Although the national polls have swung firmly towards the Coalition, strategists on both sides have long anticipated the election will be like the recent state polls in South Australia and Queensland,” says Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald. “Although there was a strong average swing towards the opposition, volatile results in individual seats saved the incumbent Labor governments.”

Michelle Grattan dangles the idea of a hung government in The Age: “Just past the halfway point, this election campaign appears open, with national polls close and regional differences going both ways. While talk of a hung federal parliament is normally fanciful, this time it is not beyond the realms of possibility.”

At the very least, “if Julia Gillard loses the election, she won’t die wondering,” writes Coorey in the SMH.

At least Gillard is staying on message, says Tony Wright in The Age: “There is a rhythm to these prime ministerial press conferences. Gillard faces the assembled media, delivers her latest spending promise, sinks the slipper into Tony Abbott and then sets to responding to questions. Responding may be too strong a word. Her answers can be broken down to two themes. The government has a marvellous economic plan; Tony Abbott has none at all.”

Abbott needs to buck up and debate Gillard on the economy, argues Paul Kelly in The Oz. “Tony Abbott’s refusal to debate Julia Gillard again mocks the public interest in this election, and reveals the arrogance of the new frontrunner. Abbott’s excuses are understandable yet unconvincing.”

Seems like a change in the weather?