A surge in the major parties’ primary vote has stripped the Greens of their strong support and dramatically narrowed the gap between the parties in today’s Essential Report.
Breaking weeks of relative stability on the primary vote, the Coalition has increased 3% to 42% and Labor has increased 1% to 41%, to reduce the 2PP gap to 52-48%, the narrowest it has been since Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd. The Greens have slumped to 10%, their lowest level of support since May.
The transfer of much of the Green vote to the Liberals will be of real concern to Labor as it heads into the last fortnight of the campaign.
The rise in Coalition support has been accompanied by a softening of Julia Gillard’s approval rating, giving her a net approval rating of 45-40%, down from 8 points last week, and an improvement in Tony Abbott’s net approval rating to 40-45%, down from -10 points last week. Gillard now has her narrowest lead yet over Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, just 12 points, down from 18 last week and a massive 25 points in late July.
Essential asked whether voters’ opinion of Julia Gillard had changed during the election campaign. The results reflect Labor’s dismal campaign so far, with 42% of voters saying it had gone down, including 22% who said it had gone down a lot. Nor has the Liberal campaign engaged voters, who were evenly split on the same question about Tony Abbott’s campaign, with 27% saying their opinion had improved and the same number saying it had worsened.
Labor is still adrift of the Coalition on perceptions of economic competence, with the Liberals leading by 6%, the same gap as at the start of the campaign, although both parties have strengthened in the eyes of voters. The Opposition also has the upper hand on immigration, where it leads 43-25% on perceptions of best party at handling it, and also has a handy lead on “being a stable and reliable Government (38-30% over Labor). But Labor has strong leads on “looking after the needs of low income earners and pensioners” (42-23%), ensuring a quality education (42-27%), health (38-29%) and, oddly, environmental and climate change issues, where Labor has a 12 point lead.
As to which party has a “vision for Australia’s future”, voters are decidedly unenthused. 36% of voters think Labor is better at the vision thing, 33% think the Liberals. Nearly the same, 31%, can’t decide.
Thanks Bernard,
Interesting that the Green’s are leaking votes to the Liberals. Should make the rest of the campaign very interesting.
The leaks, Rudd, Latham and other distractions are drowning out Bob Brown
Polls can say as they please but logically thinking a person who values “green” ideals would never vote for the party of environmental exploitation (coalalition).
As Hugh McKay said on the weekend, why do people bother to waste so much time over these stupid frigging polls?
It’s just 1500 people and their views on any day.
Do grow up all and get over it. And there is not a snowballs chance in hell that greens are actually going to liberals.
But here is a tip;
IF the coalition do win the election, climate change will first cease to be crap, and then the way to deal with it will be by installing nuclear power stations in electorates that don’t elect coalition representatives.
And I suspect after the so-called launch by the lieberals yesterday with not a thing to say on anything other than torturing a few refugees they certainly won’t.
The lieberals a stable government? WE just had 12 years of the Howard and Costello soap opera followed by the Nelson/Turnbull soap, by the Grech affair and the stabbing of Turnbull for the idiot Abbott.