Did ALP state governments impact the federal vote?

One of the big questions floating around the post-election limbo dance is whether ALP State government and state party parliamentary performance had an impact on the ALP results in the federal election.

If we look at the two party preferred margin of the State ALP parties at their most recent poll (all Newspoll here except for Qld where I used some unpublished polling) and compare that to the swing the ALP experienced on Saturday – this is what we get:

The poorer the State ALP has been performing of late, the larger was the swing against the Federal ALP in that state.

The consistency across every state is hard to argue with.

And don’t forget (disgraceful self promotion) – Possum needs a job! For the lovely folks that have responded so far, I’m working my way through them all as we speak and will take a few days. Big thanks!