Steve Fielding’s path to Senate salvation is shaping up to be much closer than the pundits are predicting. The devout CityLife church pointman, who first staked his claim to a parliamentary seat in 2004, again could get lucky in Victoria — this time through a combination of below-the-line votes and yet-to-be-counted absentee ballots.
According to one senior scrutineer familiar with the situation, the chance of a Fielding triumph in the sixth and final Senate position is about 50%, with Liberal Senator Julian McGauran and the DLP’s John Madigan splitting the difference. But others, including the ABC’s Antony Green, have stumped for McGauran outright.
Currently, based on Green’s Senate Calculator, and with about 80% of the vote counted, the DLP moves ahead of Fielding and into a winning position at the 18th count, due largely to preferences drawn from right-wing minnows One Nation and Fred Nile’s Christian Democratic Party.
There are two main scenarios in which Fielding can close the crucial 3,506 vote gap between the two parties and keep in the race as the count progresses. If he stays ahead of Madigan, the Family First Senator will eventually be pushed over the line by McGauran’s preferences and secure another 6 years on the red leather.
First, Fielding could increase his share of the total vote through the 250,000 uncounted absentee ballots that should favour him (or the DLP could decrease its share of the irregular vote more than Fielding does). In Victoria, there are about 600,000 postal, pre-poll and absentee ballots, only about a quarter of which have been counted — the vast majority are still in envelopes.
Second, the vexed issue of below-the-line preferences could weigh heavily, despite the difficulty in predicting where these will end up. In short, all ordinary below-the-line votes (excluding postal, absentee and pre-poll) are tallied on election night. These figures are then posted on the AEC website and fed into Green’s calculator. But both the above and below-the-line votes are stacked in the same pile, according to their first preference. These so-called ‘unapportioned’ ballots are then sent from the polling place to Victoria’s central count headquarters in Collins Street to be separated out. Currently, the AEC website suggests only about half have been, with below-the-line postals yet to be broached at all.
Under Green’s calculation, all votes are assumed to follow the Senate group ticket but in reality about 4% — or 75,000 ballots — will ‘leak’ across the ballot, potentially favouring Fielding. When this happens, both the DLP and Family First’s preference flow will be scattered among the other parties, and possibly to each other.
The DLP’s main benefactors — One Nation and the CDP — will almost certainly abandon them to some degree below the line. For example, it seems unlikely diligent CDP Protestants would consciously preference the rabid Catholics of the DLP due to simmering tensions stemming from the Reformation (to name just one fissure). Of course, Fielding also relies on preferences, mostly from the Climate Sceptics and the Citizens Electoral Council, but because he starts ahead of the DLP on the initial allocation he is dependent on smaller numbers and is therefore less vulnerable when they disperse.
According to Crikey‘s calculations, Fielding is likely to net at least 400 extra votes by factoring in positive below-the-line leakage from One Nation and the CDP — both parties that initially favoured the DLP above the line. That could narrow the current differential to about 3,000, with absentees and postals potentially taking care of the rest. But even if Fielding is able to pull ahead of his DLP brethren, he could still face trouble at the Pearly Gates in the form of McGauran.
At the penultimate count, the DLP is currently only 18,617 votes ahead of McGauran, on Green’s calculations. Fielding, if he drew ahead, would hold a similar lead because he would benefit from a similar preference flow (ie: the DLP’s preferences would be distributed to him, rather than the other way around).
But that would almost certainly be reduced when the scattered below-the-line vote is calculated, and will probably decline even further when Liberal postals and absentees from places such as Mount Hotham and the French Riviera are factored in.
This would leave McGauran to be catapulted over a quota at count 24 by Fielding, or in the other scenario, the DLP’s Madigan.
In about 10 days we will know for sure.
I really don’t think the Protestant Reformation is at the forfront of Conservative Christian voters minds any more. The conservative Christian voices around the nation have been rallying to Jesuit trained Roman Catholic Abbott, rather than atheist Gillard. It seems that the very protestant conservatives are willing to back their old enemies, because maintaining conservatism is seen to be at stake. (Mind you, Gillard is no radical!)
If Rudd had been pitched against Abbott, I would still reckon that the conservative Protestant groups would have backed Abbott, even though Rudd was an active Protestant church goer. Again: for the same reason. They would have supported conservatives, for the sake of that alone: maintain conservative values – and they would have just avoided discussing the two leaders religious affiliation.
The dominance of a conservative world view, is more important to these Protestant voters, than religion. If religion is a convenient argument to use to bolster their devoted support of conservative parties, so be it. When religion is not a good argument to use, then find other things say, that allow you to stay in that position.
Oh.. and on Fielding? My money is on McGauran, but if Mr Feilding does survive this election and the Senate has him for another 6 years, the only consolation will be that he will finally have no influence or power at all. A Labor Green majority will be in play instead.
REFORM I scream, for pity sake reform.
How can we possibly justify and allow to continue this ridiculous charade? 10 days in and only 80% of the votes counted?? Fielding the deranged billious lunatic returned to spread more of his hateful idiotic bigotry on preferences so far down the ballot paper it’s impossible to even suggest ANYBODY outside of his ilk actually want either him or what he stands for?
Staggering, disappointing and incredibly frustrating, REFORM I scream again.
Actually it wouldn’t be too bad if Fielding gets back in since it would mean our friend Fake Steve Fielding wouldn’t have to retire. Plus the fact that he would no longer have any power left after the Senate change over would prevent him from causing too much trouble. Better him than a bench-warmer like McGauran or someone who might have less comedy value like Madigan.
At least I can now feel the time and effort I spent voting below the line was worth it. It was a hard choice, but Steven Fielding’s outstanding performance in the Standard Weight For Age Idiocy stakes, saw him just pip Stephen Conroy for last place on my ballot paper.
Tom – I do feel your pain. Surely the 3rd Labor candidate, or the 2nd Green, or even McGauran… how could there be a risk of this happening? … of course… it always comes back to preferences…. preferences that most Australians voting above the line have any idea about.
Reform begins when we match compulsory voting with compulsory education: year 11 or year 12 politics modules for all students, so that every new voter knows how the system works, and why they need to make informed votes.