Today’s Essential Report is steady as she goes on party support, with Labor edging up a point at the expense of the Coalition, leaving them 51-49 on a 2PP basis, and the Greens steady on 11%.
However, voters have a dim view of minority government, with 42% of voters expecting it will lead to poorer administration of Australia, compared to 30% who think it will be better and 15% not expecting any difference. About 20% of voters expect minority government will be “a lot worse” for the country.
And the vast majority — 70% of respondents — expect they’ll need to return to the polls within 12 months. More than a quarter think it’s very likely and just over half believe Australia should have another election within that time.
Almost 40% of voters think the Coalition would win such an election, compared to only 35% who think Labor would survive in government.
Essential, which provided the most accurate pre-election poll, also asked voters whether they’d change their vote if an election was held in the next 12 months. Virtually no voters said they would definitely change their vote, but there were differing outcomes among voters about whether they may switch to another party.
In results that mirror pre-election polling about firmness of voting intention, 84% of Coalition voters indicate they would vote the same way; 76% of Labor voters say the same, but only 62% of Greens voters say they’d vote for the same party, with 29% saying they might or would change their vote.
“but only 62% of Greens voters say they’d vote for the same party, with 29% saying they might or would change their vote”
EXACTLY – Greens voters now realise the benefit of their vote has gone to Labor and thats not what they wanted.
So where else would they put their vote? The Coalition? Doubtful.
No Glenn, disgruntled Labor supporters now realize that switching to the Greens has cost Labor its majority, when all they intended was to send a message re the governments disappointing performance. If Greens voters hadn’t wanted Labor to benefit, they would have preferenced the Coalition, but overwhelmingly, they preferenced Labor.
Glenn,
I’m a green voter. I knew exactly where my vote and preferences were going. I wanted the Greens to win in my electorate but failing that, I was hoping for a Labor win.
I really don’t understand where all this bunkum comes from. The only people who would change their Green vote are those who don’t understand how our preferential voting system works.
Also, I don’t know anyone who voted Green who would prefer a Liberal government over a Labor one. The whole reason I started voting Green was Labor’s moves to the right. Why would I support an even further right leaning party like the Liberals?
Charlie O’Flynn – The Coaltion for sure is my guess, why else would 29% say they’d vote differently ?, if they were Labor supporters of sorts they would vote as before knowing the preferrences go to them anyway.