In this year’s mid-term elections on November 2, voters in the US will be electing all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 37 US Senators, and Governors of 37 states. Elections will also be held for state legislatures and local offices, along with a variety of referenda.
The Democrats gained control of the US House of Representatives and Senate at the 2006 mid-term elections, after 12 years of Republican control. The Democrats gained 31 seats in the House of Representatives, and in the Senate the Republicans lost six seats to the Democrats. This gave the Democrats a 31-seat majority in the House, and a 51-49 majority in the Senate.
In 2008, the Democrats gained another 21 seats in the House, and eight more Senate seats. The defection of Republican Senator Arlen Specter in 2009 gave the Democrats a theoretically filibuster-proof 60-40 majority, but this only lasted until January 2010, when the Democrats lost Ted Kennedy’s former seat in Massachusetts.
The Democrats are facing serious losses this November due to a failing US economy, the limited policy success of the Obama Administration, the failure of Democrats to pass legislation through a deadlocked Senate, and the right-wing Tea Party movement’s revitalisation of the Republican party.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans appear to be on track to gain the 39 seats they need to form the majority. New York Times polling blog FiveThirtyEight is currently giving the Democrats a 37% chance of maintaining their House majority.
In the Senate, Democratic chances have improved due to internal Republican party wrangles in several states. In Florida and Alaska, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Lisa Murkowski are running for the Senate as independents after being challenged by candidates to their right in Republican primaries. Tea Party activist Rand Paul is running in Kentucky, turning what should be a safe Republican seat into a close contest. In Delaware, Christine O’Donnell’s defeat of Mike Castle has switched the seat from a 94% chance of a Republican gain to a 94% chance of the Democrats retaining the seat.
While the Democrats will likely hold on to their Senate majority, they are set to lose ground, with their seats in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana and Pennsylvania almost certain to fall to the Republicans, and several others in serious danger.
Out of 37 states where Governors will be elected on November 2, the incumbent is not running for re-election in 24 of those states, due to term limits, retirement, or primary defeat. Gubernatorial elections are particularly important this year, as states prepare to redraw the boundaries of House of Representatives districts. Redistricting takes place once a decade, after the national census, and will take effect for the 2012 elections. In most states, it is a partisan and openly biased process, where state legislatures and Governors actively work to redraw boundaries to assist their party and make seats safer for incumbents.
Many states will also hold referenda on November 2. One of particular interest is Proposition 19 in California, which would legalise cannabis for general use and allow it to be taxed by government. Polls show the “yes” side ahead, although not by a great deal.
California is facing a severe budget deficit, and it is expected that cannabis taxation would provide more than a billion dollars a year for the state Treasury, and save money for local government and law enforcement agencies. A yes vote would be very significant, considering California’s role as the largest state in the United States, and one of the largest economies in the world.
Check out Ben Raue’s blog The Tally Room here.
As much as I admire Nate Silver’s capacity for miraculous mathematical prophesy, I think it’s still far too early to predict where a lot of Congressional races will go. Right now Pollsters are getting visceral responses from people who are pissed about the USA’s current economic malaise and the mind numbing gridlock in Washington but for the most part have yet to fully engage in the detail of either parties campaigns.
If the Democrats can make the case that the GOP has been rail-roaded by extremist wing nuts who want to implement a policy platform even more diabolically dangerous than the Bush one that created the GFC, I think they still have a chance of holding onto both Houses.
Every week it’s becoming clearer to moderates and Independents that the Toxic Tea Party is now actually running the GOP in many states – the lunatics have taken over the asylum. I’m confident that many Americans are smart enough to see the dangers inherent in letting them run the country. Watch for a DNC national campaign on this in coming weeks – if it’s done well it will surely turn the tide
Proposition 19 will bring conservative wing nuts out to vote in the same way Prop 8 did so I’ll be surprised if it gets up, but I really hope it does
@muse, I wish I shared your high opinion of the American electorate, but we’re talking about people who elected GWB – twice. The Dems are suffering from a malaise some US commentators are calling the “enthusiasm gap”, and in a nation that doesn’t have compulsory voting, enthusiasm is often the greatest differentiator. There are a lot of very reasonable, intelligent, worldly people in the USA, but their enthusiasm has been sapped by a frankly lacklustre performance from the Great Black Hope. On the other hand there are a lot of nutjobs, rednecks and fundamentalists, with the fervency of a backwoods revivalist gospel meeting on crack. Which camp will “rock the vote”?
With non-compulsory voting, the usual situation is that things have to be, or seem to be, very bad indeed to mobilize a big voter turnout.
Bush stank to high heaven and my take is that the thought of another Republican President mobilized the masses to get out and vote.
I’m not sure that Obama has reached Gorgonzola status just yet, so I predict a low voter turnout which may favor the Republicans.
@Stevo
Give me a break .. Australian’s re-elected Mr McGoo how many times? ..lol
Shrub won in 2000 by a hanging chad filled nose against a terminally boring Al Gore terribly tainted by Clinton scandal and only won again in 2004 because John Kerry’s campaign somehow managed to make Gore’s look great by comparison.
Oh, and the GOP’s resident Dr Evil, Karl Rove cleverly conspired to get 4 million toothless, witless pitch fork wielding religious weirdos, who normally don’t vote at all, out of their basements to vote for anti gay marriage constitutional amendments in 11 states.
The current “enthusiasm gap” has less to do with Obama’s own failings than it has to do with the fact that members of his own party, notably the BlueDog pro lifers and that prissy self absorbed prick Joe Lieberman consistently voted with the Replicants to block Obama’s legislative agenda for purely personal reasons.
Obama has made errors yes but the Dems biggest problems have been rooted in their own lack of unity
You also seem to miss the fact that those radical libertarian Tea Party toss pots have done much to alienate the bible bashing base of the Replicant Party by NOT constantly prattling on about Roe Vs Wade and how “faggits iz gnawing at the moral fabric of ‘murica”
IMO, one of the Toxic Tea Party’s greatest achievements thus far has been doing more to undermine that Republicunt shotgun marriage of convenience between God and Mammon (Socially Conservative Religious Wing Nuts and Gun luvin, IRS hatin’ Libertarians) in the past two years than the Democrats have managed to do in the past two decades
This will all come down to whether the Dems can finally come together as a party, forge a singular, cogent agenda and run an effective campaign against a Replicant Party which is in complete disarray as radical libertarian and PaleoConservative wing nuts struggle in a death roll to decide who will run the GOP for the next decade.
@Socratease
I suspect fear of returning to the Bush agenda of cutting taxes/regulation for the rich and services/living standards for the poor and middle class may get more Dems out to vote than you think.
I am hopeful that despite the Right Wing Noise Machines best attempts to convince them otherwise, most Americans still remember what caused the GFC.
The Tea Party is the best thing that could have happened to the Democrats in these mid terms. What was looking like a crushing defeat, has now been rolled back somewhat. I think you’ll find many conservatives voting for the Democrats as they just find the Tea Party movement far too radical. Of course the Democrats will still lose a lot of seats, but the number can now be softened somewhat.