A special Essential Report state voting intention poll shows Labor neck-and-neck with the Coalition in Victoria, trailing by 16 points in NSW and by 18 points in Queensland. The polls were compiled over six weeks in September-October.
In Victoria, based on a sample size of 1465, the Brumby Government’s primary vote is on 38%, a swing against it of just over 5% since the 2006 election, and 6 points behind the Coalition (42% Liberals, 2% Nationals). The Greens are on 12%, up 2 points since the last election. That yields a 2PP result of 50:50 before the state headed into the campaign for the 27 November election.
The result for Labor in NSW is dreadful, but probably better than expected: based on a sample of 1953, the Keneally Government is facing a 10% swing against it on its primary vote and is at 29%, compared to the Coalition’s 50% primary vote. The Greens are up 2 points to 11% from the 2007 election. On a 2PP basis, that’s 58-42% to the Coalition. That’s better news than it sounds for Labor, because the 2PP swing of 10.3% would, on the basis of Antony Green’s state pendulum, “only” deliver 16 seats to the Coalition next March (the Greens may also win seats off Labor). This would leave Labor within striking distance at the 2015 election, a situation the Coalition will be anxious to avoid given the amount of heavy lifting Barry O’Farrell will have to do to get NSW back into shape.
The situation is more grim for Anna Bligh’s Government, although it has another eighteen months before an election is due. It is facing a 13.2% primary vote swing (sample size: 1138), and is also on 29%, with the LNP on 50%.
Independents and “others” are also polling strongly in Queensland, on 12% compared to the Greens’ 9%. On a 2PP basis, that means the LNP has a 59-41% lead.
There are 6 states in our nation. Therefore this shows only half a “State by state” report.
Did the dog eat the other half of this story?
It’s all mixed up these days between federal and state anyway, because no one can tell anymore who’s responsible for what, and parties, especially on the left, just follow the same national party agenda whatever government they use to implement it.
There are no federal agendas any more, just auctions for state agendas. Defence, trade, foreign affairs, and interstate infrastructure are all a bit too hard, and why bother when you have all the money and time on your hands, so you can show the states up on hospital funding, road funding, school funding, housing programs, and even street crime and knife laws? So people just vote Labor, Coalition, or Greens, and forget to even notice which capital city their rep will be heading to or what his/her name is.
And if you’re a state government, why bother doing anything but commenting loudly on what Canberra does? Fix up the inefficient state taxes, Canberra will just redistribute the money to the other states come grants time. Try to do something not on the national agenda, Gillard will just cancel a Special Purpose Payment. Try to govern, and the very same Sussex St ALP bosses who dumped Kevin Rudd will dump the state Premier.
In NSW especially, now having four year fixed terms, voters will always face a federal election in between getting angry and expressing that anger in the state vote. Guess who they’ll take it out on. If Labor has got slightly more popular in the states in recent days, it’s because they like something that Gillard said or don’t like something that Abbott said, and they vented their steam at the Gillard government in August anyway.
FREECOUNTRY: You shouldn’t make such sweeping assertions. John Brumby, (Lab) Premier of Victoria, is so dictatorial, so full of himself, and so convinced of his own ability with technology and so arrogant that many in the Liberal Party wish he’d chosen their Party. The man makes an ex-premier Jeff Kennet- infamous for being arrogant-look positively humble.
At the moment John Brumby is busy coppering his bets because he’s had the s_hit scared out of him by the recent polls. Money is being promised everywhere, especially for sporting arenas and he’s hammering the Greens at every possible chance.
When he gets back in power there will be an immediate change back to his usual bastardry (sic). You have been warned!
@FREECOUNTRY – I agree with Venise. Your comment re we don’t know who we’re voting for is offensive. I’ve been voting for 44 yrs, and I can assure you I know who I’m voting for. Your off hand comments re ‘the left’ are also offensive. You imply that we don’t have any philosophy or ideals or principles – just because we’re ‘on the left’? It’s your type of arrogance and egotistical attitudes that Venise is referring to re Brumby – you’re a member of his ‘family’ by your attitudes.
I live in NSW. I can assure you that my vote can’t be bought as flippantly as you suggest. I’m waiting to see how many INdependents are going to join with John Hatton – a retired Independent who’s going to stand again, even though he’s in his 70’s? A wonderful man with great integrity, who’s been motivated by the corruption in the NSW Govt/ALP and I hasten to add, that the LIBS are no better! They have the likes of David Clark, a radical extreme right wing Opus Dei catholic! See, I do have my finger on the pulse. Stop being such a patronising git! We’re not all like the people you mix with. Obviously not up to speed with local/state happenings!
Obviously, Liz45, I do not consider you a typical voter, any more than a typical anything else.