NSW Labor’s position has deteriorated in recent weeks and going into the last week of the election campaign, faces an even bigger defeat than previously considered, according to Essential Research.
A poll based on over 900 respondents compiled over the last three weeks has Labor on a primary vote of just 24%, with the Coalition a full 30 points in front on 54%. The Greens are on 12% and independents and “other” on a high 11%, providing a 2PP outcome of 65-35%.
At the start of the election campaign, Essential found the Coalition led 61-39% (initially reported as 59-41%, but after discussions with Antony Green, Essential adopted his approached based on NSW’s optional preferential voting system). Labor has in effect lost 1 percentage point a week since then on a 2PP basis, putting paid to the idea that Premier Kristina Keneally has run a good campaign for someone in a no-win situation.
Based on Green’s election calculator, 65-35% would leave Labor with just 14 seats, the Coalition on 70, and independents on 7 seats. The Greens would also pick up Balmain and Marrickville. A continuation of the Labor decline in the next week would see another seat lost, but this is now well into bedrock territory and it would be hard for the Coalition to push Labor into single figures.
Hi All
With NSW going broke fast it is no surprise.
Looking at bushfire management alone has me shaking my head in disbelief.
It is one of a many Labor/Green Government’s responsibilities that illustrates the standard of decision making.
$millions are spent on NSW bushfire services, but the bushfire threat grows as do record levels of fuel loads.
After the Victorian bushfires, NSW got an extra $106 million in funding but national parks fuel loads have the potential to spark fires with record flame capacity.
(Note: Flame capacity is exponentially proportional to fuel load, so if fuel load doubles, flame capacity approximately quadruples. )
Funding correlates positively with the severity of the bushfire problem: the more money spent on bushfires, the worse the problem.
It is indeed, as one former Labor PM’s press secretary told me with a chuckle very “Dr Strangelove… If the bushfire problem gets fixed, the bushfire power base will shrink. So they won’t fix the problem because they are more interested in their superannuation. Ha Ha.”
Then there’s the the research fraud over global warming that Labor/Green are still pushing as a tax agenda. For an update on where this research fraud is going Google CRU global warming and Lord Monckton.
Then there’s all the research funding down the gurlgelr chasing the anthroprogenic global warming myth.
Then there’s the Metro; then the roof insulation debacle… Then there’s the grief to whistleblowers.
Ha Ha Dr Strangelove…
What is the Coalition going to do with 70 MPs? A huge cabinet, lots of parliamentary secretaries, numerous parliamentary committees of inquiry and . . . ?