Far above Australian pre-occupations with the fate of an unsafe, small, low-fare airline such as Tiger, or the cutting down of Qantas by MBAs who think Asia is where the asset should be based, the most costly flying object ever built, a space shuttle called Atlantis (what was NASA thinking?) is docked like a fat dart in the side of the gigantic tubes and panels of the international space station.
The media has, as usual, totally lost the plot over this — the last shuttle mission — writing as if it was the end of a great era in space exploration, which is piffle.
Space exploration hasn’t ended, even if Congress persists with the notion of cancelling the James E. Webb space telescope, which is vastly more capable successor to the aged Hubble Space Telescope, destined (if funded) to drift into a gravitational equivalent of the Sargasso Sea, a place darker, stiller, and more useful to astronomers than any other technically plausible location in the solar system.
The pace of useful exploration, the creation of wealth in space dependent industries, and the associated activities in high speed sub-orbital intercontinental flight, a well as the patient advance towards practicable journeys to the planets and perhaps centuries from now, the stars — that all continues.
But without America.
Transport in America is in disarray, whether by road, rail or air, and this is true of its innovations in space transport in particular, which are no longer considered useful to a society where the anti-science tendency actually translates into political power, where the country is insolvent, and an angry sense of denied entitlement and bewilderment seems to infuse its major parties.
America burdened itself with the big burger approach to space. It’s scientific establishment succeeded in attaching many superbly focused and comparatively less costly programs to the periphery of manned lunar extravaganzas that were as much about massaging America’s narcissism as they were about promoting itself as the world’s leader in technology and whatever else it wanted to headline.
But the money, and the will, is gone. It has exported technological control and leadership to Europe, China, India and Brazil, which include its prime creditors. The investment in design and engineering made outside the US far exceeds that within the country, which means Americans are increasingly buying the benefits of technological innovations their economy no longer sustains with money borrowed from abroad.
All hail Atlantis, and the glories of the past.
Tomorrow is upon us.
Other than a variation of the Soyuz there isn’t a single spaceplane being built outside of the US. The ESA/DLR project has been shelved. And the UK one was always a joke.
XCOR, Scaled/Virgin, Blue Origin, Bigelow Aerospace etc are all US based engineering developments. SpaceX – which is building the cheapest heavy lifter every built is 100% US based without a single Russian sourced engine anywhere near it – and will soon be lofting Americans to the ISS – 36 months from Atlantis touch down next week – is my estimate on when Falcon 9 will launch Americans into Space.
Culturally the US is moving to the ultimate high ground and will probably lead the outward push to Martian colonization. That doesn’t change the fact that domestically the US is a basket case, but the idea that China, Brazil and India are anywhere near challenging the US in space is simply fantasy land.
China barely has an aircraft carrier let alone a carrier battle group. It’s subway escalators don’t work properly, it new bridges are built of sand with some cement painted on to make them look pretty and it’s political system will self immolate sooner rather than later.
The US has much to answer for, but to discount US technological supremacy is crazy talk. If anything the canceling of James Webb Space Telescope is just part of the whole front operation the JWST most probably is. 6 billion dollars across 30 states and countless contractors hides a lot of secret R&D on spy satellite technology. Those spanners really don’t cost the Pentagon 100 dollars – that’s just for book keeping to hide where the other 98 dollars got spent.
The Joint Strike Fighter is the last manned jet fighter and will be operational soon enough. From here on it’s unmanned aerial vehicles and on that score the US is far far ahead of the rest of the world. For all we know – they probably have a sub orbital space plane hidden out the back. The U2, B2, F-117 etc were all built in total secrecy and that process continues today.
Seriously if, Richard Branson can dream of building and owning a space plane – then chances are the black projects team has a fleet of such hidden away. And just as I predicted several years ago – the minute Scaled Composite was able to demonstrate a working sub orbital system with Space Ship 1 – it would be bought out by one of the big three. And that’s exactly what Northrop Grumman did with Scaled Composites now a wholly owned subsidiary of NGC. Americans might be a pain in the neck but they aren’t completely stupid.
Meanwhile, read the Aerospace Corp – (the Rand Corp for space development) report on what happens when lots and lots of rocket powered spaceplanes are launched into the atmosphere every year. It ain’t pretty reading. As such, there is little chance we will ever space planes taking off on a daily basis – with fat cats wanting to do do deals in Beijing tonight and not tomorrow – as the atmospheric damage is simply too much.
@Simon: but Boeing seem to have trouble getting a commercial aircraft from R&D to production. You think the vastly more difficult task of getting a spaceplane working is going to happen?
Simon,
Elon Musk and Burt Rutan are admirable and visionary figures, and both practicable and successful in their ventures. If there were three people this writer would wish to interview at the designer level, it would be them, and the long dead Chief Designer, Sergei Korolev. I respectfully disagree about the JSF, the capacity of the transport, defence and aerospace sectors in China, and the tragic incompetence of the current Boeing management, which couldn’t even organise a flutter free wing in a cut price Moscow based design shop for the 748. I say these things in sorrow and shame.
Ben,
Simon makes a few good points – I seriously doubt China and Brazil are close to the technological capacity of the US, while Europe is just as much of a debt-ridden economic basket case.
Still, it’s true that the Shuttle program was always an overpriced bore. What’s the point of going round and round and round the Earth, mission after mission after mission? What they should have been concentrating on is more space based telescopes as well as robotic missions to the planets, their moons and other objects in the solar system. The success of the Mars rovers and other probes shows what real space-science is all about.
Having said that, I still believe the US can recover and succeed again in Space. The private initiatives signal the way forward for low orbit manned flight, while NASA should concentrate on deeper space exploration, observation and knowledge.
If only the US government would stop racking up trillion dollar deficits every year then the future could arrive much more quickly.
For all we know the JSF could just as well be a sham project hiding a whole series of secret projects – both manned and unmanned. The US learnt much from the Brits in WW2 about the dark arts.
Meanwhile, the US has active spacecraft/s in orbit around The Sun, Mercury, Mars, Saturn, Earth, Luna, Asteroid Vesta – with a massive new orbiter about to launch bound for Jupiter – and a nuke powered Science Lab in final wrap stage for a major rove on Mars. New Horizons is more than halfway to Pluto and onward to other Kuipers.
While 2 Pioneers and 2 Voyagers are some 15-20 light hours out as the first human made objects to leave our solar system . Above our heads the GPS constellations keeps the world driving and the bombs mostly on target. With the Gen3 GPS buses rolling out of the factories ready for launch later this year and next.
The level of US space activity is simple extraordinary. Just flick through NASA’s spacecraft directory and the dozens and dozens of active spacecraft deployed across our solar system.
The Iraq and Stan wars are entirely interwoven with military space assets and essentially the first space wars of the modern era. America might be the Roman Empire – but it’s a 21st century armed to the teeth.
Fleets of earth observation satellites designed and launched by US corporation courtesy of the US taxpaying are in orbit right now completely revolutionizing our understanding of Earth.
The neocons and tea party express might be a bunch of complete jerks – but US science and technology utterly dominates the planet and will do so for many decades to come.
All of the leading advances in biofuels, solar energy, batteries are coming out of US universities right now. The US has only a small debt to GDP ratio and with a bit of smart budget cutting and appropriate tax increases could easily be out of debt in a decade from now.
Civil aerospace has become a very strange and difficult industry the past 10-20 years, and all aircraft manufacturers are having design and production problems – just look at the Airbus A380 sitting out back on the tarmac in Singapore.
They don’t even know how they are going to get it fixed and currently think they’ll have to build a massive workshop in situ to repair there or simply cut it up as scrap and make the insurance companies take the hit.
Building military spaceplanes – like most cutting edge military technology has a completely different budgetary process to a civilian aircraft. You effectively have unlimited funds, and an end customer that wants to either wage or prevent war not squeeze an extra bum on a seat in cattle class.
The US naval nuclear program has been 99.9% error free. It cost an absolute fortune to design and build the nuclear reactors that power US subs and ships but the result was absolute engineering perfection.
That approach to military hardware development continues today and really at the end of the day NASA is just a military space program made to look nice and friendly with a few Buck Rogers roled out to smile for the cameras.