Is there an industry with a shorter memory than politics? Other than perhaps the investment community? Merely three years after US mortgages almost caused a global economic meltdown, the Australian government has quickly forgotten the lessons learnt, proudly spending taxpayer dollars propping up the mortgage sector.
One of the key reasons underlying the collapse of the US housing market was the way the mortgage sector operated and the willingness of the government, and investment banks, to “securitise” mortgages. Quasi government bodies Fannie Mae and soon after Freddie Mac played a large role in the securitisation process, with investment banks (led by Solomon Brothers and Lewis Ranieri of Liar’s Poker) supercharging the sector soon after.
The principle underlying securitising mortgages is that it allows banks to lend more money, by removing risk from their balance sheets. In basic terms, lenders no longer carry the risk of a default of the borrower, instead, that risk became borne by an investor looking for a slightly higher yield.
The problem should have been quite obvious. If a bank lends money to a borrower and the loan remains an asset on the bank’s balance sheet, it will be careful to ensure that the borrower can repay the loan. If it sells the loan to a third party, the lender would be less concerned about default. In fact, all it would be concerned about would be making the loan and finding someone to purchase it. That is pretty much what happened.
Of course, the situation in the US was worsened by the use of CDO and synthetic CDOs (which were basically bets on whether home owners would default), but essentially, the issue arose courtesy of securitisation and the separation of risk and responsibility.
How does this all relate to Australia?
Despite the lessons that should have been learnt from the GFC, the Australian government is not only condoning securitisation, but actually using taxpayer money to undertake it. Bizarrely, the government is even boasting about the “returns” it is getting from risking public money, as a recent article by Eric Johnston in Business Day shows.
Most Australians wouldn’t realise this, but the Australian Office of Financial Management, under the auspices of the world’s greatest Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has been spending billions of dollars of taxpayer money propping up the non-bank mortgage sector.
Since October 2008, the AOFM has “invested” $13.37 billion in RMBS. The AOFM claimed that “without this funding, new lending by financial institutions other than the major banks would have been lower and their ability to provide competition to the major banks, now and in the future, would have been curtailed”. That of course is true — but that certainly doesn’t make the investment a wise one. When financiers investing their own money won’t touch an investment, it’s fair to say the government shouldn’t be. The AOFM noted that the investment had generated a “return” of 6.07% — barely more than a term deposit. Bear in mind, these were securities purchased from second-tier banks and non-bank institutions including Bank of Queensland (which recently reported a doubling in mortgage arrears), Resimac and Macquarie Group.
If there is a problem with these mortgages, and the borrowers default on the loans — it will be the poor old taxpayer left to carry the can.
In trumpeting its purchase of residential mortgage backed securities, the AOFM proudly noted that “there has never been a credit-related loss on a rated prime Australian RMBS”. Like those who believed that US housing prices would never fall, the Australian government has dived headlong into funding the Australian residential property sector oblivious to the risks of a housing downturn.
While many are quick to blame capitalism and the free market for the global financial crisis, the US mortgage sector was far from a free market. Fannie and Freddie were operating with an implied government guarantee (that guarantee become somewhat less implied and more explicit when the US government had to spend $US150 billion (with plenty more to come) bailing out the appallingly managed organisations). A free market doesn’t have taxpayers subsiding the purchase of assets. If the market were really free, rational players would have stopped providing finance for housing purchases, which would have prevented the housing bubble and subsequent bust.
In Australia, our housing market is equally far from free. The Rudd government did its best to prolong the housing bubble by creating the first home owner’s grant, at the same time, our perverse system of negative gearing capital gains tax encourages speculating on housing, rather than investing in productive assets. If that isn’t enough, the federal government guaranteed retail deposits (thus lowering the cost of funds for banks) and also wholesale lending (allowing them to borrow more by relying on the government’s credit rating).
But the government’s intervention in the RMBS market is by far the most risky use of taxpayer money to bankroll an asset that has long been removed from its intrinsic value.
If non-bank lenders are unable to finance their lending activities from the market, they should not be lending money at all. The solution isn’t for the government to place at risk taxpayer dollars when the market is clearly saying something very different.
Will they ever learn? It seems likely that the answer is no.
Adam Schwab,
You’re comparing apples and oranges.
Trying to link government support for Australian RMBSs to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac is just stupid. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac account for the vast bulk of home loans in the US. RMBS are a trivial amount of the Australian market.
Further, the mortgage markets in the US and Australia are entirely different. Where the US sub-prime mortgage market became a large and systemically problematic part of the economy, that was never true here and is not true now. The ‘sub-prime’ ‘no doc’ ‘low doc’ market in Australia is almost zero.
Without government support of RMBSs here home loans would be absolutely concentrated in the big 4 banks – the non bank lenders were dead in the water through the GFC, and the (small!) amount the government is risking to prop up the RMBS market was/is intended to pump prime the non bank lenders to bring some competition back into the home loan market.
Whether this support is ‘risky’ or a ‘good investment’ is quite irrelevant. As far as risk goes, the amount of money at risk is low, and they are never going to lose all of it anyway even if house prices do suffer a significant decline in Australia.
This article is of poor quality Adam with inaccurate and misleading analysis. Injecting phrases like “the government is even boasting” – no, the government isn’t boasting, it’s simply reporting on what it is doing. Note what the AOFM is actually quoted as saying:
ie it’s about promoting competition and diversity in the local financial markets, not about investment returns or risk.
My understanding of the GFCs main cause is that derivatives of sub-prime mortgages (perhaps including, but not limited to RMBSs) were not appropriately rated by credit rating agencies. This led to predatory or aggressive lending in the retail mortgage market which caused a housing price bubble.
In other words, the problem was the lack of regulation, and ignorance of risk, not the RMBS product itself.
The article here raises a coule of questions.
What does $13.37b represent as a percentage of the entire Australian RMBS on issue? This will help us determine the extent of the “propping up”.
What does $13.37b represent as a percentage of AOFMs market security holdings? This will help us get a sense of “weighting” of RMBS in AOFMs portfolio.
Further, the RMBS product has existed for many years prior to the GFC. I don’t have the hard data, but I’m pretty sure they were around in Australia in the 90s, perhaps even a decade or more prior.
It would be helpful if you could highlight why this product is now riskier than it has been in the past.
amount the government is risking to prop up the RMBS market was/is intended to pump prime the non bank lenders to bring some competition back into the home loan market.
JACKOL, YOU ASSUME THIS IS A GOOD THING.THE GOVERNMENT DID N’T DO THIS OUT THE GOODNESS OF THEIR HEARTS AND CONCERN FOR PEOPLE
TO OWN A HOME.
tHEY DID IT FOR THEIR OWN SELFISH MOTIVES TO KEEP THE MARKET HEATED UP AND CONTINUE THE STAMP DUTY REVENUE GRAVY TRAIN.
OOOPS, just realized the caps were on, sorry.
“I will gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hamburger today.”