Europe, having narrowly avoided crisis with the departure of Silvio Berlusconi, appears to have been plunged into it again, when Greece — or shift-F1 on the keyboard as I like to call that sentence — again backtracked on its commitment to usher through the full package of October 26 austerity measures.
With new Prime Minister Lucas Papademos addressing Parliament last night — a Parliament of which he is not a member — and inaugurating a two-day debate leading to a vote of confidence on Wednesday, the momentary consensus that made the new government possible has already been put on hold.
New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, having accepted the terms of the deal, is now making objections both to the full implementation of the austerity package, and also to a further demand by commissioner Olli Rehn, that a commitment to the deal be signed by not merely the PM and President, but also major party leaders and the head of the Greek state bank.
The letter is clearly of no legal standing, and Samaras insists that it’s a deeply humiliating bit of political theatre. It is, but like the proverbial million dollar proposition, objections on grounds of dignity seem a bit beside the point. We’ve already established what kind of girl Greece is; now we’re just haggling about the price.
Perhaps the markets could have lived with that piece of symbolic resistance, but Samaras’s open rejection of a combination of spending cuts and tax rises — and particularly the latter — has been sufficient to spook the European markets, and restart chatter as to whether the €8 billion tranche required in December to stave off default, will go through.
It almost certainly will, but Samaras’s brinkmanship, not to say opportunism, is breath-taking. Ahead of the February elections, he is now desperate to get himself out from under George Papandreou’s referendum, a move designed to forestall mass protest on a epic scale, and to make New Democracy own the crisis in tandem with PASOK.
You can’t blame either of them for that. As the three-party government — which Samaras, bizarrely, suggests New Democracy is not a part of — finalises a more detailed program, the news has come that unemployment has officially hit 18.75% — and is almost certainly closer to 25%.
Unemployment benefits — a maximum of €115 a week — run out after a year, and usually before, and the country is now seeing a slow accumulation of social fraying following on from economic collapse.
Athens, a scruffy but lively city, has been, for the past two years, portrayed as Mogadishu with spanakopita in a half a hundred profiles. Now, the prophecy is starting to come true. Even at the centre, building proches and colonnades are filling with homeless, and at night, the police presence is massive.
Crime is slowly but remorselessly on the rise. And while it is always dangerous to generalise on such matters, one could also say that the mood on the street has changed decisively. There is a dourness here, in the shops and streets, beyond the usual east European style of hospitality.
The mood spells danger for both major parties. Should they go to the election with no great change in their image, they will both lose out, but New Democracy will lose out more. PASOK will get some credit for tackling the crisis — from those who are still willing to vote for either major party, or at all.
Samaras is also facing opposition from within New Democracy — with one veteran MP arguing that the party is being infiltrated by far-Right figures betraying the party’s original vision, under Samaras’s watch — just as Papandreou is also facing a threat to his party leadership.
The result is that Greece is repeating the farcical process which attended the last days of Papandreou – the country is heading for a vote of confidence which will be won, but with no actual confidence being expressed in the lead-up to it.
The vote is timed for the evening of November 16, on the eve of Polytechnic Day, which will have its traditional large Left rally to commemorate the fight against the junta. The march usually ends at the door of the US embassy, to make clear where the real power lay.
Always rambunctious, this year it promises to be something more — as the old law of university sanctuary — by which the police could not go on campus grounds — has been removed. Frequently a running battle, this time it promises to be more of a pitched one.
By that time, Papademos won’t even be in the country. He’ll be in Brussels, a location presumably based on the idea that there is no point even pretending that he is the choice of the Greek people. Removing himself to the capital of Europe removes one component of any symbolic challenge, such as another storming of Parliament.
To say that this is far from the north European idea of smooth technocratic government is an understatement. But it is simply a reflection of the key fact underlying the whole process — that there is something weird about the whole set-up, a government that has the people’s consent, gauged only by opinion polls, gaining confidence by a vote from parties that have none, to implement a deal the people would reject if they could. And the health of the world economy still hinges on it. New democracy you could call it … or shift F2
Over a 38 year time frame Greece will be able to deal with its debts and ensure a viable economy for its people.
[(crikey.com.au/2011/11/09/rundle-new-pm-in-italy-but-not-yet-new-pm-in-greece-but-not-yet/#comment-169064)
MICHAEL R JAMES Posted Wednesday, 9 November 2011 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
The Greek ruling class are unbelievable. They are bringing in an unelected guy to be PM! And this guy is already negotiating for unfettered powers before he agrees to accept the job! At least he is not a general is he? No, he is …. another economist! (An unelected economist* as leader with strong powers and no fixed date for an election. this goes way beyond dirigisme.) As for Samaras, it is impossible to imagine a functional decision making coalition with him in it. Or the ND. It would be like having a clade of Tony Abbotts, only….Greek! It seems to me Greece (at least its politicians) are going to waste this crisis; and it will be back to business as usual…until the next crisis.
*Maybe I will be wrong and Papademos will start cleaning up their tax collection situation but this seems so totally improbable. Samaras and ND would probably strangle him in the Agora before allowing that kind of reform. ]
I don’t think you understand what is REALLY happening here. Elected leaders in Greece and Italy (so far) have been replaced by Banker representatives to ensure the Banks call all the shots. Papdemos was the central bank governor that colluded with Goldman Sachs in 2001 to hide Greek debt, using a phony foreign exchange rate ruse, to get Greece into the EU. Monti is on Goldman Sachs list of International consultants. Both these guys come from the “Save The Banks At Any Cost” school. This is simply more of the same from the same bunch of banksters – it is STILL going to end in tears.
Peter – yes i only mentioned that Papademos is an ex ECB banker about half a dozen times, and i noted Monti’s abundant connections yesterday. To say that this is save the banks at all cost ignores the fact that saving the banks now means saving the eurozone – they cannot be separated out.
And just to clarify more generally – i don’t think that Athens is ‘Mogadishu with spanakopita’ – i was characterising way the city was portrayed in hysterical articles. i was merely saying that it had tended that way a little more in the last few months
If anyone still has illusions about pollies representing the electorate or the common weal, note the recent payment by Ireland of $1B to unsecured, unguaranteed bond holders in that country’s version of NuganHand or BCCC, the Anglo-Irish “bank” which simply channelled ECB euros @ 1.5% to gombeens @5%, with copious brown envelopes to the ruling party throughout the Celtic Tiger boom.
The current PM & Finance Minster, who campaigned on NOT doing this acknowledged “it is wrong and against he intersts of the Irish people” as they signed the cheque.
Our future uranium sales, to all & sundry wouldn’t be similar. Would they?