The Egyptian military’s efforts to tighten their grip on power in the face of upcoming elections is not so much counter-revolution, but an inevitable result of a reliance on the Tahrir movement to ensure the success of their revolution. With reports of up to 13 dead in Cairo over the weekend, alongside the controversial role the army played in the sectarian clashes last month, the army’s reputation as protectors of the people is eroding.
The situation at present reflects a military that is, one may say inevitably, seeking to maintain control. This is a fundamentally new position for the role of the military in Egyptian political life. Since the February overthrow of Mubarak, the military, guided by caretaker president and head of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, has moved from a largely passive institution and recipient of regime largesse to controlling the state apparatus itself.
With the first substantial elections only one week away, the military moved last week to institutionalise this new role through amending the provisions of the constitution, approved at referendum in March, to include reference to the military as protectors of constitutional integrity as well as removing any civilian oversight of the military’s structures of governance and budget.
In this regard, it may be argued that Tantawi is acting to formalise the military coup that removed Mubarak and undermine the claims of those in Tahrir Square to ownership of change in Egypt. In other words, the coup and the revolution are now fighting for control, and it is difficult to see how those in Tahrir Square could challenge the military’s dominance.
Admittedly, this is somewhat of a simplification of matters. There is still a high degree of popular support for the military, and a view of its prospective role as protectors of the state and the constitution as a guarantee of stability resonate in these volatile political and economic times for Egypt.
Indeed, many Egyptians see the violence in Syria and Yemen, two states it has traditionally very close relations with, as something to avoid. The military have drawn on this, with the unrest in Tahrir portrayed as a small price to pay to avoid more widespread social chaos.
As such, this is likely see the military force the protestors to accept some degree of military autonomy from civilian control as well as military “oversight” of political reform. This is a blow to those in Tahrir Square and their supporters both in Egypt and globally, and has the potential to severely undermine the legitimacy of the elections should they be held as scheduled next Monday.
In processes of political transition, events are highly dependent. A loss of faith in this first vote could tarnish the rest of the reform process, seeing Egyptians fall into the previous pattern of living outside the political system, rather than seeking to be active participants in their own political future. Should this happen, then Egypt’s Arab Spring will be remembered more and more for an opportunity lost.
*Dr Benjamin MacQueen is senior lecturer in the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Deputy Director of the Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University
Surely nobody with two neurons to rub together expected the Ehgyptian military, recipients of the 2nd largest US aid, after Israel, to do anything other than maintain the status quo of the last 30yrs of STFU about Israel?
The trashing of the Israeli embassy a couple of months back was simply a heads-up to Washington of how untidy this democracy thingy could be, better not to upsewt the camel cart.
It is difficult to see who or what could actually challenge the military’s dominance in Egypt – both politically and economically.
Last time I looked the estimate was that the military and interests associated with it – read retired generals and their families- controlled some 80% of the Egyptian economy. In Egypt the only class – the capitalist class if you like – wears a uniform and drives a tank to work.
The military determined the outcome of Tahrir Square and the fate of Mubarak who they realised had passed his use-by date. And in doing so, the fate of the “revolution” was kept firmly in their hands.
They will not go quietly these old men and the entrenched interests they represent. I suspect it is only through outside scrutiny and even action by Europe and particularly the yanks, that the dreams of those in Tahrir Square – the ambitious project of establishing democracy in Egypt – is not reduced to simply replacing Mubarak with a more photogenic dictator relying on military support.
Watch for reports of provocations by groups of young men of military age against minorities and demonstrators … the powers that be will be looking to establish triggers requiring a restoration of law and order… and they will be ensuring these triggers are pulled.