The looming Queensland election just got interesting. Well, actually, it’s been quite fascinating for a while but it just got even more interesting.
Take a look at this graph. Polling company ReachTEL conducted a survey of 616 residents of the all-important electorate of Ashgrove on February 9:
The primary vote of Campbell Newman — you remember, the unofficial leader of the LNP who hasn’t actually been elected yet — fell below 50% for the first time in the poll series. Labor’s Kate Jones picked up 3.4 percentage points since early January, and both candidates are now neck and neck.
The campaign proper kicks off on February 19 and Crikey has many treats in store. In the meantime, the flood inquiry rolls on as accusations of mismanagement of Wivenhoe Dam continue to be thrown around, Premier Anna Bligh has started appearing at fundraisers (despite her 2009 pledge to refrain from participating in “pay-per-view politics”), the opposition leader has gone to ground after his in-laws and their business dealings dominated headlines last week, and Bob Katter’s Australia Party is flinging mud early by accusing the Newman camp of funding last year’s controversial Rip & Roll safe s-x campaign.
Meanwhile, the spectre of Kevin Rudd at sausage sizzles across the state (not to mention speculation that he could launch a leadership bid off the back of an ALP drubbing) looms …
Brace yourselves as Queensland becomes the centre of the political universe.
616 doesn’t seem to be a lot to poll for an electorate with 30,000 voters, but if the sample is representative it makes Ashgrove very interesting indeed. Maybe Newman’s indifferent past is not bearing close scrutiny by the voters.
If I was Premier Bligh I’d be tempted to pack a suitcase and head off overseas until the day before the election because no amount of campaigning by her will save Queensland’s Labor government. Just this week the salaries of health workers and police were not paid on time – yet again.
Premier Bligh will put monumental effort into the campaign but it won’t make one iota of difference to the inevitable result. On the other hand it would be gratifying to see the popular Kate Jones retain Ashgrove and, with Rudd in tandem, she may come through.
I thought Premier Bligh might attract some support for steering Queensland thru another flood crisis, altho the disarray over the Wivenhoe Dam isn’t looking good. But surely she can’t desert her post in this time of great need?
zut alors,
I wouldn’t be too sure. Like the feds the choice is for the lesser evil. But, and wait for the scare campaign made more likely by the closing Ashgrove gap, who would be Premier if the LNP get up and Newman goes down? A terrifying prospect! Will we risk it?
And it was the Commonwealth Bank that stuffed the pays up. Whilst Courier Mail readers might be in the dark (what’s new) over this, affected public servants will be well aware of who’s at fault. I imagine they’ll also be contemplating the slash and burn policies generally favoured by coalition governments.
@ David Allen,
Frankly, it’s an ugly prospect whoever wins (with or without Newman). I realise the Commonwealth Bank was at fault nevertheless one popular commercial TV bulletin did not mention it. But the Commonwealth bank cannot be blamed for the $16 million Health fraud.
We’re doomed in any event.