The Greens will need to bolster its primary vote to roughly 3% above Labor to triumph in Saturday’s byelection in Melbourne, the Greens’ key Victorian election analyst says, as its bid for a first lower house state seat hangs in the balance.
Stephen Luntz — who has conducted an in-depth investigation into likely preference flows from the Melbourne Cup-style 16-candidate field — says Labor hopeful Jennifer Kanis will benefit from flows from the Christian Right (7%) and a three-candidate block comprising African community leader Berhan Ahmed, the S-x Party and Liberal-leaning independent David Nolte (10%), for a combined windfall of around 17%.
By contrast, between 12% and 15% would flow to Greens candidate Cathy Oke from a rival libertarian-leftish bloc led by Crikey founder Stephen Mayne, and including the Democrats, the Secular Party, green-tinged independent Adrian Whitehead and public housing advocate Kate Borland.
Luntz says on average 70% of the “minor 14” will end up going to the party the candidate’s how-to-vote cards recommend, but he expects this to vary — higher for Ahmed and lower for the S-x Party.
Luntz notes that two fringe candidates — socialist candidate Patrick O’Connor and independent Gerrit Schorel-Hlavka — have not recommended preferences, and predicts their votes will split fairly evenly. The donkey vote will flow from Ahmed to Kanis, which was why he anticipates a higher than usual proportion of Ahmed’s vote finishing with Labor.
ReachTEL polling published in The Australian this morning showed Oke only 1.6 percentage points clear on 38.1%, with Kanis on 36.5% — that lead may not be enough to corral the remaining 26%. S-x Party candidate Fiona Patten was on 6.1%, followed by Mayne on 4.3%. Family First was on 3.8% — however this seems high given the party’s disappointing performances in the Fremantle and Albert Park byelections. Former Liberal voters were split evenly between the Greens and Labor tributaries.
A Roy Morgan poll last month placed the Greens on 48.5% — 11% percentage points clear of the Labor Party on 37.5%, while internal Liberal polling in late May pointed to a much closer race.
In addition, informal votes are likely to top 6% owing to the massive field and growing public disillusionment with the formal political process.
The poll — especially if the Greens can get over the line — is likely to be viewed as a referendum on Julia Gillard’s ailing prime ministership in her home state, despite the protestations of senior federal Labor figures.
No doubt The Greens understand that every contest they enter which does not destroy them makes them stronger. With apologies to Nietsche.
Oh I see, so this microcosm of Victoria represents a vote of confidence or otherwise in Gillard and the TOTAL WIPEOUT OF LABOR in Qld was based on local issues? Do you Crikey people have any control over how ignorant you sound?
It doesn’t matter who wins, ALP or Greens. Lower-house Greens are only electable within earshot of GPOs (or in Perth, the Fremantle PO).
Why would the S-x party direct preferences to Labor over Greens, and even if they did, it seems likely to me that a large chunk of their voters would vote below the line – presumably with Greens ahead of Labor.
The libs not running still seems a remarkable strategy. They dont want to be responsible for getting a Labor person in, I guess, like they did last time. But they might indirectly get a green in, instead. I am very happy with that, of course, but will the Libs be? Short term embarrasment for Labor I guess. That is all that matters after all.
But the state lower house is like federal parliament: on a knife edge. If the Libs lose one seat (a death, a resignation, an embarrassing arrest or whatever) and then lose the by-election (which is actually possible here in Victoria), that one green will (if my maths is working for me) hold the balance of power. In the lower house at least. Pity the coalition have the majority (also by just one, I think) in the upper house.
I love it!