Since the ill-fated 2009 Copenhagen summit, international negotiations on climate change have developed a bad name. Some commentators have given up on them. But look behind the scenes and these negotiations are making progress — and it’s imperative that Australia plays a constructive role at the next major summit in Qatar in December.
While Copenhagen wasn’t the success it could have been, media depictions of the summit as a total failure continue to overshadow the progress made there and at subsequent UN climate summits in Mexico (2010) and South Africa (2011).
Claims aired this week that the lead US climate envoy, Todd Stern, is suggesting walking away from the commitment the US made to help limit global warming to less than 2 degrees oversimplifies the complex web of international climate change action. Yet Stern’s speech is not about the 2 degree goal, it is about how you structure an agreement to achieve it. You may not agree with all that Stern says, but he is correct that negotiations are inherently complex as they seek to integrate environmental, economic, security, trade and energy issues.
The failure to recognise the progress international processes have made has led some commentators to downplay multilateral co-ordination, and focus primarily on domestic action and informal international agreements to drive action on climate change. Some commentators advocate the traditionally hawkish view of international co-operation espoused by some US think tanks and political leaders such as George W. Bush.
The argument goes that negotiations have not produced a climate treaty and therefore the process needs to be abandoned as a waste of time. This ignores the vital role of international negotiations in raising ambition to tackle global warming, and accountability. It also ignores the successes that international negotiations, not just treaties, have had, both in shaping countries’ actions and in supporting investment in clean energy.
In advance of Copenhagen, an unprecedented number of countries advanced pledges to act to reduce emissions. These were not just hollow words. All the major emerging economies are now implementing domestic policies to meet their commitments. South Korea’s emissions trading scheme is based on its international target. South Africa’s carbon tax and other policies are framed around meeting its pledges. China’s international pledge has been translated into domestic carbon and energy targets that it is setting for regional carbon trading schemes. Mexico’s recent climate laws are similar. The list goes on.
The basic structure and rules established by international agreements also influence the policies that governments implement. To take a single example, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol spurred a boom in clean energy investment.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, about two-thirds of investment in renewable energy in developing countries since 2004 has been supported by revenues from the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the UN scheme that facilitates largely private sector investment from advanced to developing economies for low-carbon projects. Estimates suggest that about 70-80% of renewable energy investment supported by the CDM would not have occurred without support from this Kyoto mechanism.
This is not to say that international agreements and their supporting infrastructure are perfect or the sole way forward. That’s not the case. Governments around the world are acting on climate change and clean energy because they see it is in their economic self-interest. But to say that international agreements over the past decade have not supported global action is wrong.
Agreements can give countries the confidence they need to commit to more ambitious emissions reduction targets by reducing perceptions that their economies could be disadvantaged by moving ahead of trade competitors. They’re also important because they build a foundation of trust and accountability between nations. The cycle is self-reinforcing in both directions: domestic actions support international agreements, because they demonstrate that countries are living up to their commitments and obligations.
I am not suggesting countries should not form regional or bilateral coalitions of ambitious action. These can be valuable complements to multilateral engagement and, as The Climate Institute has advocated, can be used to accelerate global ambition. However, abandoning multilateral engagement is not in Australia’s interest.
As a nation vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, coordinated global action matters a great deal to us. As an influential middle power, Australia has the ability to build coalitions in multilateral fora, which help us advance our interests against resistance from the major powers such as the US and China. In Mexico, Australia’s role as part of the coalition of progressive countries, the so-called “Cartagena Dialogue”, was central to the positive outcome from that meeting.
The opposite was true in South Africa, where Australia squandered the opportunity to join the “ambition coalition” of the EU and small island states (who are highly vulnerable to climate change). This group pushed through the agreement to finalise a new legally binding agreement covering all major economies by 2015.
Australia cannot afford to waste further opportunities. Failure to support current multilateral agreements by refusing to inscribe our current emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period at the next UNFCCC summit in Qatar in December would damage Australia’s international standing. At best this would limit our ability to influence the outcomes our nation wants in international forums — for example, an ambitious binding agreement that covers all major emitters.
At worst it could leave Australian businesses with major headaches in accessing the international carbon markets that are critical to the cost effectiveness of the domestic emission trading scheme.
Global collective action requires global intelligence gathering. If all member states were able to share knowledge of who was emitting what and where, the weight of global opinion can exert, rather than the easily-placated voices of local environmental groups.
Satellites like GOSAT are an obvious mechanism to supply up-to-date global information.
However, the spatial resolution of GOSAT is only about 1°, whereas inspections require resolution more like one square kilometre.
Participation in such a space mission could well be a role for middle-weight nations like Australia.
Roger that Mr Clifton …. what’s the latest on our Cape York Space Centre ? Spoke to a feller was v. excited about that, so much that he was off to Starke Station to camp there till construction started ……. Wondre if he’s had any sort of fortune for his keen-ness ?
@isatzo
The Climate Crisis stage currently belongs to diplomats, rather than engineers. At some point of crisis in the future, the nations will be driven to the same table to pool resources against the common enemy, emissions. For that we will have to wait.
However, they should not arrive at that table unprepared. They need to arrive fully briefed on who is emitting how much, from where.
The preceding years could see our diplomats busy arranging a coalition of the willing to set up a world-wide-watch of emissions. Once in place, the international public would be able to watch climatic tragedies accelerate, at the same time associating them with the immediately-available evidence of continuing crimes against the greenhouse. International horror may be what drives our leaders to the table.
That is more or less what the GOSAT mission implies: a spaceborne instrument monitoring greenhouse emissions worldwide, and reporting it freely to all nations. However the information needs to have higher resolution, so that all witnesses can see from which square kilometre a particularly high emissions are coming. Japan gets kudos for contributing GOSAT to the common good, along with other nations involved in that project.
Collecting such an international team requires diplomats to get busy years before the service is set in place. That is a role for diplomats of middleweight nations like Australia.
Roger, thank you. I do fear that any sort of funding for a project to release information of this kind is going to be a big ask. Gearing more towards another hole in the ground, rather than another eye in the sky that would be detering another hole in the ground. And putting a price on NationalParks, etc, so they can be traded, is more the direction being taken.They Molest the Groundwater as we speak. Goodbye Great Artesian Basin …. hello Vast Subterranean Toxic Lake …… So. Outer to Inner Space….. What to fix first ?
Guys, only around 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions are man made. The rest is “natural”. And before you give me all that isotope blarney, there is no evidence that particluar weights are “only” man made.
Before you start spending my money on global surveilence, and global regulation. Take a cup of tea and wait until somebody proves that there should be ANY alarm at all over emissions.