A poll dip that Tony should be thankful for. Tony Abbott should not be upset about one stray opinion poll showing a Labor revival into a potentially winning position. This week’s Newspoll has done him a great favour by substantially decreasing the chances that his opponents will do the vote-winning thing and draft Kevin Rudd back into the prime ministership. If, and it is a mighty big if in my opinion, voting intentions really are close, then Labor under Rudd would be a runaway winner and if, as I suspect they are not close at all, they surely would be under a Rudd leadership.
Opinion polling nonsense. I mean, take a look at these and tell me what it means.
Two party preferred voting intentions:
- Newspoll — Labor 50% Coalition 50%
- Nielsen — Labor 47% Coalition 53%
- Essential Research — Labor 45% Coalition 55%
All these results were published on Monday by supposedly reputable pollsters. Pay your money and take your pick.
I simply cannot believe that with most people almost completely disinterested in politics this far out from an election that public opinion is as volatile as indicated by these recent Newspolls:
And I wonder, incidentally, where all the stories about the dramatic Green “revival” are being hidden? There were certainly plenty of headlines a fortnight ago about the dramatic decline.
It’s never too late. The pundits who keep writing that the chances of Kevin Rudd becoming Labor leader before the next election will disappear if it doesn’t happen soon. They should ring and have a chat with Bill Hayden. His replacement came on the day an election was called.
Something wrong at Defence. In Australia’s first 97 years, the Department of Defence had just eight departmental secretaries — an average tenure of more than 12 years. With the replacement yesterday of former special forces commander Duncan Lewis, Foreign Affairs Secretary Dennis Richardson becomes the seventh Defence Secretary since 1998. Something has gone wrong somewhere with our country’s public service.
Suing not such a good idea. I’m just curious about whether taking legal action to stop publication of something actually helps or hinders. Hence, my interest in how many people have actually had a peek on the internet of those pictures of the the topless princess.
It is not the kind of story that I would expect Crikey readers to have clicked on under normal circumstances but please do me a favour and fill in my HAVE YOU HAD A PEEK form.
News and views noted along the way:
Richard, in your piece on polling you meant “uninterested” rather than “disinterested” did you not?
Just as Labor voters like Turnbull but wont vote for him, Coalition voters say they like Rudd but wouldn’t vote for him in a fit. Your article ignores the elephant in the room which is that most people don’t like him. They woke up to him after 2 years of his self promotion antics.
It is the misogynists who don’t like Gillard.
She is doing a great job with a large number of excellent policies–paid parental leave, dental care initiatives, the national broadband network which will transform communication in this huge country, and the National Disability scheme which is badly needed
You wonder if the misogynists would vote against their own daughters if they stood for office.
Well, with those poll results, if we were to assume the true number is, say, 47-48% 2PP for Labor, then all of those results are within a 3% margin of error, which is what the only one of them I bothered checking had. The real scandal is those in the media constantly prognosticating wildly on fluctuations within that margin of error.
T2
I plead guilty. Uninterested in should have been.
As my Google search puts it:
Disinterested and uninterested are sometimes confounded in speech, though rarely in writing. A disinterested person takes part in or concerns himself about the affairs of others without regard to sell-interest, or to any personal benefit to be gained by his action; an uninterested one takes no interest in or is indifferent to the matter under consideration: as, a disinterested witness; an uninterested spectator.
I have fallen into the sloppy ways of the American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition which says of disinterested:
adj. Free of bias and self-interest; impartial: “disinterested scientific opinion on fluorides in the water supply” ( Ellen R. Shell).
adj. Not interested; indifferent: “supremely disinterested in all efforts to find a peaceful solution” ( C.L. Sulzberger).
As for peeking, how else to be informed and involved with a controversy?
It surprises me how many ‘pundits’ said they had not seen the anti-Muslim film, yet held strong opinions, as on Q&A last Monday.