Labor’s primary vote has fallen markedly, according to new polling from Essential Research, but to the benefit of the Greens rather than than the opposition. It leaves the two-party preferred on 50:50 less than a fortnight from the election.
Labor’s vote has fallen 2 points — a big shift given Essential’s fortnightly rolling average — to 38%, while the Coalition has fallen 1 point to 43%. The big mover is the Greens, up from 8% to 11%. The end result is the 2PP result hasn’t moved since last week.
The Greens have been underperforming in the polls since Bob Brown left, but a return to double-digits might yet see the Greens retaining their Senate spots and picking up an additional spot in Victoria, which would cement the party’s balance-of-power position in the upper house.
Kevin Rudd’s approval rating has gone negative; he’s now approved of by 41% of voters compared to 45% who disapprove, a reversal of 45-43% in August. Tony Abbott’s approval has remained broadly the same (37-52%), and Rudd’s lead as preferred Prime Minister has fallen from 12 points to 9 points.
Tony Abbott’s paid parental leave (PPL) scheme is still disliked by voters: 35% of voters prefer the government’s scheme compared to 24% who prefer Abbott’s scheme. There are plenty of people who are unsure or uninterested on the issue; 41% responded with “neither” is better, or “don’t know”.
Support for the Coalition’s PPL scheme was unsurprisingly strongest among Liberal / National voters, but even there, 36% said the Coalition’s scheme was better while 19% plumped for Labor’s scheme and 35% said “neither” policy was better. Green and Labor voters preferred Labor’s scheme by a wide margin, which would present an interesting challenge to the Greens — who support a more generous scheme than Labor’s present one — if they’re called on to pass Tony Abbott’s PPL deal in the Senate, after the election.
There’s some good news for Labor on their scare campaign about the Coalition having to “cut to the bone” to pay for its election promises; 61% of respondents think it’s unlikely that Abbott would be able to pay for his promises without making more cuts after the election, while just 25% think he can do it.
*Essential Research is a part of Essential Media Communications. EM Advertising, a business wholly owned by EMC, is contracted by the ALP to provide advertising for the federal election campaign. Directors, staff and contractors working on the EM Advertising business have no involvement in the production of the Essential Report. Your Source manages Essential’s online research panel. Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies.
I don’t buy into the argument that Australians are stupid enough to vote Labor OR The Greens after the last 6 years of dysfunction, deceit and incompetence. These results have to be wrong.
Greens are the only alternative for any fair minded thinking person. Unfortunately that seems to be the minority in oz and therefore we’ll (more than likely) have a clown to represent a media mogul. Shame really.
A pox on both their houses, eh?
Hardly surprising given the turgid kabuki their campaigns have become.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if…
I fail to see why anyone would register their support for the Libs. The main reason for this is that there is no clear statement on how they intend to do most of what they say. If you look at the rhetoric it is saying that they will provide to us what we all want. No medal for creating that bit of political election brilliance. Fine then, show us how. Show the numbers. show the alternative budgeting. Please!!!!! Otherwise it is all piss and wind.
With all the media space in the papers you would think there would be reams on information on liberal policy, but there is very very little. Then again….where is the Greens costings etc…or is just they have not had the media opportunity?