The extent to which the Abbott government’s woes have effects in the real world of Australian lives was on display in today’s January unemployment numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
First, the good news: the number of aggregate hours worked in January was up a lot — 0.5% seasonally adjusted. And part-time employment rose nearly 16,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted.
But nationally, unemployment rose 0.3 points to 6.4%, the highest in over 12 years. That more than reversed the surprise fall in December to 6.1% from 6.2% in November. In trend terms, unemployment remained steady at 6.3%. Participation was steady at 64.8%, seasonally adjusted, so the big rise in unemployment was not due to participation. It was driven by a fall of 28,000 in full-time jobs.
There was a 0.3 point rise in unemployment in NSW to 6.3%, where participation dropped 0.1 of a point. It dropped the same in Victoria, where unemployment rose to 6.6% from 6.5%. In Queensland, the final legacy of the Newman government was a 0.3 point rise in unemployment to 6.5%, off the same small fall in participation as in NSW and Queensland. South Australia saw a big rise in unemployment, from 6.6% to 7.3%, but the numbers in smaller states are always more volatile, and it was accompanied by a 0.7 point jump in participation. Western Australia recorded a fall of 0.3 points to 5.9% unemployment, off another 0.1% fall in participation, while unemployment was flat in Tasmania at 6.6%.
Overall, the numbers show that, as forecast, the jobs market slowed at the start of 2015 after a strong finish to 2014. That strong quarter coincided with problems around the accuracy of the ABS jobs data. But in a note with the release today, the ABS made it clear those recent problems had no impact on the January figures:
“The increase in unemployment in January 2015 in original and seasonally adjusted terms has not been caused by the recent changes to the ABS supplementary survey program.
“Historically, the ABS had not conducted supplementary surveys in the December and January months, and no supplementary surveys were conducted in December 2014 and January 2015.”
It continued:
“The increase in unemployment in original terms is due to:
- a net increase in unemployment in persons who responded to the labour force survey in both December and January (the ‘matched sample’),
- a contribution from the incoming rotation group compared to the group it replaced, and
- a contribution from persons who responded in December but not in January and vice versa.”
“Overall response rates for both December and January were in the ABS’s target range of 93% to 95%,” the ABS added. Adding to the need for caution about the jobs data was the number of jobs added to the economy in December being revised upwards from 37,400 to 42,300. A downward revision would add to any feeling the jobs data for January was showing a weakening demand for labour.
The overall result bears out the RBA’s obvious concerns about the fragile state of growth in the economy. And the concerns of the rest of us that the Abbott government doesn’t have the wherewithal to address it.
Good thing the govt has done all the hard work in the first budget to get the economy going.
I can’t wait to hear from TOny & Jow how a rise in unemployemtn is actually a good news story for the Australian economy.
This is not a surprise and it will get worse as Abbott destructive wrecking ball continues to swing. The unemployment from the defunding of the Tax Department, ABC, CSIRO, Public Service departments, the Universities and so it goes on.
The plethora of Christmas drinks doubling as redundancy and retirement wakes. The upward trend of unemployment will continue as the car manufacturers restructure their business models, miners and their suppliers wind as the fossil fuel industry markets and investments dry up and consumer confidence continues to languish.
Abbott’s “all the way with the mining boom” at the expense of everything else has come badly unstuck and to continue budget repair in this circumstances is ludicrous.
The promise of growth and a million jobs is evaporating fast with only low level part time work in the offering (Abbott’s 4000 new jobs).
The FTA’s come online during 2015 and the decline in manufacturing will accelerate as import dependency is facilitated by lower tariffs and duties this squeezing of what manufacturing that is left into oblivion.
The expected growth in the export services will be elusive — what does Australia have to offer, beyond education and Pyne has totally botched that at all levels.
Higher education overseas student recruitment was a sham anyway as the sectors “terms of trade” was characterised with heavy discounting (posing as recognition of prior learning with 331/3 to 50% discounts offered to the feeder colleges in Asia).
The Abbott government had no plan for anything beyond the 3 word slogans — no vision for a better Australia — no vision for prosperity and aspiration, where success is stifled with ideology, such as the reduction in the RET.
I await the launch of the ALP policy for economic recovery as there is a huge job to be done otherwise we drift into the third world after being passed by the developing world.
It is sad that other than resources Australia has nothing to offer Japan, South Korea and China that they do not already have and =are superior to Australia, both scientifically and technologically — and we just defunded those — D’oh.
Aw! Come on tonyfunnywalker, it’s all Labor’s fault! In the last 14 months they have
done nothing to create jobs! You’d think that they had lost the last election or something, the way they have been skiving off doing nothing. I haven’t even heard from their leader, Bile Shriften or whatever his name is. The Libs are right to blame the government for doing nothing on employment. Oh…hang on a minute…
Simple stuff Sir Tony.
Give the renewable energy industry the investment policy and certainty it needs.
We know that creates jobs.
You could give all those businesses that rely on the internet a proper NBN while you are at it. You’d be surprised how many jobs will appear because of that. NBN is not just about pirating Game of Thrones (from which the Liberal party seem to have learned most of their tactics.)