Crikey campaign scorecard: and we’re off (again)!

WHO WON THE DAY?

Bernard Keane, Crikey politics editor: Clear win to Labor — it was their launch yesterday, after all, and it was accompanied by the government in effect admitting Labor’s scare campaign on Medicare was working. Turnbull also had the aftermath of his Iftar dinner to contend with on Saturday. Speaking of which — how sad is it when a Prime Minister reaches out to Australia’s Muslim communities in a gesture designed not merely to improve social cohesion but also strengthen our national security by engaging with some of the key communities in the battle prevent radicalisation, and all News Corp can do is attack him because of the views of one attendee? Then again, as a media company News thrives on fostering hate and division, so it should come as no surprise. Hopefully there’ll be many more such gestures from a re-elected Turnbull.

Ben Eltham, political correspondent for New Matilda: I’ll give the weekend to Shorten. It was a strong Labor launch, which benefited from a strong Medicare focus. Medicare is what Labor should be focusing on at this stage, and their message is clearly cutting through considering the Coalition has dumped their plans to privatise the payment delivery system. This backpedal also showed that Labor wasn’t just running a scare campaign. Having said that Labor sources are still worried about their performance in marginal seats. but there are still two weeks to go and if Labor can can get to 52% two party preferred, a lot of different things could go their way.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, political scientist, author and media commentator: Bill Shorten had a good launch and was effective in reiterating the main points of service delivery Labor has campaigned on so far.

Clement Macintyre, professor of politics and international studies at the University of Adelaide: Are we there yet? Still nearly two weeks to go before polling day, and both campaigns are showing clear signs of fatigue. The Liberals stumbled as Labor asked questions about dodgy financial arrangements with their wholly owned voter tracking company, and the failure to screen guests to a dinner at Kirribilli House left them open to media criticism. Meantime, Shorten won the Facebook debate and, following a steady release of policy, Labor’s campaign launch was shaped to counter the government’s jobs and growth rhetoric. That means that Labor won the weekend — but to what end? Polling suggests that the swag of seats won by the coalition in 2013 will give the government a big enough cushion. So they remain favourites to win and Labor is left frustrated by an inability to cut through. Fatigue suits the government as it looks for another two weeks that are slow, steady and predictable. Labor needs something out of the ordinary to get back into the race.

Eva Cox, writer, feminist, sociologist, social commentator and activist: Voters have already started voting and belatedly one of the major parties has “launched” its campaign, (the other, next week!). It mostly revisited what has been said, as Shorten failed to take the opportunity for making a final grand vision/promise. Instead we got a few small promises, an appeal to nostalgia and a scare campaign about losing Medicare. So the weekend passed with neither side offering much new — just negatives about the other side. So it is hard to see a winner, when we have heard almost all of it before! I am still waiting for either of the majors to offer something to fix inadequate welfare payments for those dependent on payments, but feel it’s unlikely.

CASH TRACKER

Officially launching its campaign yesterday in western Sydney, Labor focused on health and made significant promises to tackle mental health and chronic illness. The Coalition has followed Labor in promising to offer a lifeline to Arrium, and will offer half of what Labor promised the ailing steelmaker. The Coalition also announced today that they would strike a deal with the NSW government to improve transport and jobs in western Sydeny as part of a “city deal”, but they have yet to release details of the plan.

Coalition:

• $4 million to support the National Heavy Vehicle Regulator;
• $49.2 million to prop up Whyalla steelmaker Arrium;
• $10.5 million for an indoor netball centre in Deakin;
• $15 million on a national strategy to stop elder abuse; and
• $3.75 million to upgrade roads in Corangamite.

Labor: 

• $257 million to provide $20,000 incentives for small businesses to hire new staff;
• $300 million to tackle chronic disease by establishing “50 healthy communities” and addressing obesity, smoking rates and alcohol misuse;
• $400 million to build a rail link to Badgerys Creek in western Sydney;
• $380 million to invest in the Melbourne Metro rail project;
• $800 million for Brisbane’s Cross River Rail project;
• $84 million for a suicide prevention package which would include 12 suicide prevention pilot projects and a national suicide prevention fund; and
• $884 million to reverse the Coalition’s cuts to incentives to bulk-bill for pathologists and radiologists.

CAMPAIGN DIARY

Malcolm Turnbull: The PM is today campaigning in western Sydney, where he is outlining the Coalition’s “City Deal” with Mike Baird’s Liberal government, which will centre around a western Sydney airport and a passenger rail link and aims at creating at least 39,000 jobs over 20 years. Speaking in the marginal Liberal held seat of MacArthur this morning he said that the federal government should be part of the solution to Sydney’s “commuter exodus” problem rather than just occasionally offering funding for certain projects. He also reiterated that the Coalition had no plans to privatise Medicare, that it was a core government service and that it would never be privatised.

Bill Shorten: The Labor Party will now be paying for their own hard hats and hi-vis after Bill Shorten launched Labor’s campaign in western Sydney yesterday. The an event was attended by former prime ministers Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and Julia Gillard (Kevin Rudd was in St Petersburg). Shorten set up the election as a referendum on Medicare and said that Labor could win this “battle for the true believers”.  Today the Opposition Leader has flown to the opposite side of the country and will be campaigning in Perth. Speaking to Perth’s Nova 93.7 this morning he talked up Labor’s defence of Medicare and said that the party would pay for its promises through changes to negative gearing, by cutting down on government waste and by not giving a tax break to big business. On his meeting with Keating and Hawke he said it was good to see them together, as “they’ve had their disagreements over time”. 

The Greens: In an ugly incident in Tasmania the Greens candidate for Braddon, Scott Jordan, has reported that his teenage daughter was left terrorised after a group of drunken men shouted abuse at her and vandalised campaign signage at their family home. Tasmanian Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson said there had been a systematic attack on Jordan and that Greens candidates in Tasmania have put up with intimidation and threats for the past 20-30 years.  Richard Di Natale is today announcing the Greens’ violence prevention plan with Larissa Waters.

INDEPENDENT. ALWAYS.

New polling from ReachTEL and Newspoll has shown NXT candidates going strong in the seats of Mayo and Grey. While Xenophon has said that he thinks a hung parliament would be unlikely he has outlined five policy points which he would negotiate on with the majors should he hold the balance of power. First, he said the government should prefence local procurement for all government purchasing decisions. Second, he would demand greater protection for whistle-blowers and more transparent government. Third, the “no pokies” senator would seek gambling reform and four, he would ask for a greater focus on preventative healthcare. Lastly, he would ask that the government targetting education funding to better support and improve the quality of teachers.

Meanwhile, candidate for the Senate in Queensland Pauline Hanson has thrown her support behind Eddie McGuire, who caused controversy by joking that he would pay to see veteran football journalist Caroline Wilson drown.  Hanson argued that people needed to toughen up and said on the Seven Network this morning: “some of these journalists, I’d drown half of them.”

POLL WATCH

The disconnect between polling figures and the expectations of voters and pundits alike has been one of the stories of this campaign. As Crikey explained back in May, the reason that everyone expects the Liberals to win despite the close polls is that Labor is failing to gain traction in key marginal seats, particularly  in Queensland and Western Australia. This story has not changed much over the past month. The latest Newspoll shows the two parties tied at 50-50 and that the leaders’ net satisfaction rates almost identical with Shorten at -16 and Turnbull at -15, but the expectation that the Coalition will win remains, due to the polling in marginal seats. As Barry Cassidy explained yesterday, however, Newspoll, when looking at preference flows, uses trends from the 2013 election. Since Labor has won significantly more support over this campaign those assumptions may not be accurate. And indeed there are reports that Labor’s own polling, which asks participants who they would preference, has them neck-and-neck or ahead in at least 18 marginal seats.

The Newspoll shows both majors gaining one point in their primary votes with the Liberals at 41% and Labor at 46%, while the Greens remain at 10% and the “other” category have fallen from 15% to 13%. The Nick Xenophon team is at 3% nationally and 29% in South Australia. In the seat of Mayo, currently held by the Liberal’s Jamie Briggs,  NXT is ahead 52% to 48%.

SPURNED CANDIDATES AND QUESTIONABLE DONORS 

The Labor candidate for the NSW seat of Farrer Christian Kunde has dropped out of the election race following revelations that he has had connections with radical Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir. Kunde had said that he was a friend of the controversial group’s spokesman in a 2014 opinion piece and also said in a lecture at the University of Sydney that marriage equality was incompatible with Islam. Kunde said he was not homophobic and that his comments had been misrepresented.

Questions about their relationship with one of the Liberals’ major donors, software company Parakeelia, have become a major distraction for their campaign this election. Parakeelia is not, however, the only Liberal donor to come under scrutiny. As Fairfax reported on Friday, the Christian sect Plymouth Brethren Christian Church, an anti-gay sect that teaches a doctrine of separation from “worldly” people and that Kevin Rudd called “an extremist cult”, has been giving the Liberal Party secret donations. Malcolm Turnbull has responded by saying, “I’ve got no criticisms or complaints about that organisation. As you know, everybody is free to make political contributions.”

ISENTIA DAILY LEADER INDEX

ZINGER OF THE DAY  

MALSPLAIN OF THE DAY

QUIRK OF THE DAY

We’ve already had a vomit-inducing moment from Malcolm Turnbull when he echoed Monty Python’s four Yorkshiremen in a video about his relationship with his dad. Now it’s Bill Shorten’s turn, after he released a video yesterday in which he’s interviewed by his wife, who asks him about his jogging habits, dropping the kids off at sporting events and his relationship with his mother. Bleurgh.

TWEET OF THE DAY

The Liberals released a new campaign ad last night featuring a highly unconvincing tradie who “just wants to get ahead through an investment property”. Railing against Labor’s war against his bank, miners and people like him, the “tradie” finishes his address by saying, “I reckon we should just see it through and stick with the current mob for a while.” Given the way the Liberal’s have been campaigning, this could be their slogan. The ad quickly drew the ire of Twitter; #faketradie was soon trending and there are now at least four “fake tradie” Twitter accounts…

TL;DR

Labor delivered a strong launch yesterday, and their claims that the Liberals can’t be trusted on Medicare appear to be cutting through. Turnbull is in Sydney today outlining his “city deal” plan while Shorten is in Perth.