Family feared drowned in Tweed River

Good morning, early birds. At least 10 people have died in a Russian metro bomb blast, there are fears for a family in Tweed River, and are we on the verge of a household debt crisis? It's the news you need to know, by Sally Whyte and Max Chalmers.

FAMILY FEARED DROWNED

Three people are feared dead after a car entered the Tweed River near Tumbulgum in northern New South Wales yesterday. A nine-year-old girl escaped the car, and The Daily Telegraph reports a witness saying “she was screaming that her mum, little sister and older brother had gone into the river in the car”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the car was found underneath the surface by boats with sonar equipment, and police divers are on their way to the area today. The Queensland city of Rockhampton continues its nervous wait, with the swelling Fitzroy River expected to reach its peak at 9pm tomorrow.

RUSSIAN BOMB BLAST

Russian investigators are searching for two suspects after an explosion in the St Petersburg metro left at least 10 dead. Law enforcement believe an explosive device detonated in a train carriage as it left Sennaya Ploshchad station. After the blast, the train continued on to the next station in order to facilitate an evacuation. A second explosive device was discovered at another inner-city metro station but did not go off.

After Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was too soon to tell if the incident was a criminal or terrorist enterprise. Russian investigators said they were assuming the latter, though no organisation has yet claimed responsibility.

IS THIS A BUBBLE?

There are warnings and opinions on Australia’s housing market, levels of household debt and the policies surrounding it from a number of directions this morning, as the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. Corporate regulator ASIC has joined APRA in signalling a crackdown on interest-only home loans, with the watchdog saying it will be using special surveillance to watch the way in which banks and other lenders offer interest only home loans and how they are advertised. Crikey‘s Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer wrote yesterday that the intervention by the regulators could be too little, too late.

In The Australian, economist Saul Eslake warns that Australia’s level of household debt leaves the nation vulnerable if house prices drop. “A house price fall north of 10 per cent is the most likely cause of the next recession,” he said.

Meanwhile the Australian Institute of Company Directors has also chimed into the debate, releasing its Blueprint for Growth, which calls on the government to reduce tax incentives that it says distort the housing market. Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has ruled out changes to negative gearing or capital gains tax concessions in next month’s budget, but a Crikey freedom of information request shows Treasury has done more than 500 pages of modelling in relation to changes to the capital gains tax.

These warnings come after data released by CoreLogic yesterday showed house prices in Sydney had grown almost 20% in the 12 months to March, and prices across the country have grown 12.9% — a seven-year high.

BUSINESS PRESSURES LABOR

“This campaign on penalty rates and company tax, it’s like Abbott campaigning on the mining and carbon tax with money from business, now Shorten is doing the same but with money from the unions. It’s not constructive.” — that’s Council of Small Business of Australia boss Peter Strong calling for Labor to commit to keeping the $24 billion company tax cut passed by the government last week, to give businesses certainty. It’s a similar warning to that issued by Treasurer Scott Morrison on Sunday (although he didn’t make the reference to former PM Tony Abbott).

SHE REALLY SAID THAT

“It wasn’t an easy one. I personally think he’s quite attractive, and I always say attractive people are hard to sculpt because it’s hard to make them look real.” — That’s sculptor Linda Klarfeld, who has been commissioned to sculpt a bust of former prime minister Tony Abbott to be part of Ballarat’s Prime Minister’s Avenue.

WHAT’S ON TODAY

Tumbulgum: Police divers will travel from Sydney to search floodwaters for the mother and children feared dead after their car sunk in the flooded Tweed River.

Canberra: Defence Minister Marise Payne will give the keynote address at the Women and National Security conference.

Sydney: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s board will meet to decide whether or not to change the interest rate. A change is considered unlikely.

THE COMMENTARIAT

‘Xenophon package’ cuts are a job half-done — Judith Sloan (The Australian $): “For the first time since the late 1960s, we will have a progressive company tax schedule, which is an extremely dumb idea, and an impediment to businesses expanding.”

The glass-houses syndrome is stalking Malcolm Turnbull — Peter Van Onselen (The Australian $): “…cycling through to another candidate would worsen an already bad situation. It’s Turnbull or bust, not that these two elements are mutually exclusive.”

Australian politics’ ‘sensible centre’ is a myth — Shaun Carney (Herald Sun $): “Is [Turnbull] representing the sensible centre or just tacking together a bunch of positions to keep his head above water? Housing affordability is a problem, then it isn’t, then it is. Negative gearing needs fixing, no it doesn’t. Climate change is real but does not demand substantive action.”

Australia must not be selfish in this time of global unrest — Helen Thorning-Schmidt (Sydney Morning Herald): “If world leaders do not tackle the root causes of displacement by providing safety, education and jobs for people, then people will continue to flee their homes.”

As a Muslim woman, I’m expected to detest Jacqui Lambie. I don’t — Yusra Metwally (Guardian Australia) “Without justifying her prejudice, it is fair to acknowledge that many Australians harbour the views held by Lambie due to the nature of media reporting, exacerbated by lack of engagement with Muslims.”

TODAY IN TRUMP

President Donald Trump has met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a general who seized power from the country’s elected leader Mohamed Mursi in 2013. Trump said the two nations would work together to fight Islamic terrorism and praised al-Sisi — who is believed to be holding 40,000 political prisoners — for doing a “fantastic job”.

Up on Capital Hill, Trump’s nominee to fill the vacant seat on the Supreme Court could be in trouble. Senate Democrats now have the numbers the need to filibuster the confirmation of judge Neil Gorsuch. If they do, Republicans have warned they will use the so-called “nuclear option” and lower the threshold required to bring such decisions to a vote.

THE WORLD

Leftists in Ecuador are celebrating after socialist Lenin Moreno was elected president, with the paraplegic former vice-president winning just over 51% of the vote. The result is also good news for WikiLeaks’ editor-in-chief Julian Assange, who is holed up in Ecuador’s embassy in London. Moreno’s challenger Guillermo Lasso had vowed to evict Assange if he emerged victorious. — Reuters

WHAT WE’RE READING

Kushner’s privileged status stokes resentment in White House (Politico): “Kushner‘s status as the big-issue guru has stoked resentment among his colleagues … and some colleagues complain that his dabbling in myriad issues and his tendency to walk in and out of meetings have complicated efforts to instill more order and organization into the chaotic administration. These people also say Kushner can be a shrewd self promoter, knowing how to take credit — and shirk blame — whenever it suits him.”

Pence’ unwillingness to be alone with a woman is a symptom of a bigger problem (Washington Post): “Over his career, he has had many colleagues and employees. With the men, he can have complex relationships that traverse work and social contexts, build trust, and eventually help their careers. A woman who hoped Pence would be a mentor to her, on the other hand, wouldn’t be able to avail herself of those opportunities, since he can’t even have lunch with her.”

Global reshuffle of wildlife will have huge impacts on humanity (The Guardian): “This mass movement of species is the biggest for about 25,000 years, the peak of the last ice age, say the scientists, who represent more than 40 institutions around the world. ‘The shifts will leave ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in their wake, radically reshaping the pattern of human wellbeing … and potentially leading to substantial conflict,’ the team warn. ‘Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on Earth, including for human lives’.”

Could Michael Flynn turn on Trump? (New Yorker): “If a former high-ranking official like Flynn is offered immunity, it generally means he can offer up a bigger fish …. immunity from Justice Department prosecutors could be a sign that the story Flynn has to tell is far more worrying for the White House than anyone imagined.”

Five ways to make a winning Trump magazine cover (Axios): Magazine illustrators have had a heyday with President Trump. When it comes to fashioning iconic magazine covers, there are 5 great techniques: The golf treatment, destruction of American iconography, the Donald Washington, put’m with Putin and the supernatural face manipulation.”