Two recent events must give pause to Australia’s foreign policy establishment and prompt some serious thinking about our alliance with the United States.
First is Donald Trump’s behaviour at the NATO and G7 meetings last week, in which Trump not merely flagged the US might withdraw from the Paris climate accords, but refused to confirm the United States’ commitment to mutual defence with its NATO allies. Forget the oafish body language and the sight of the slovenly president — who may be struggling with the early stages of dementia — needing a golf cart to transport him in the wake of other G7 leaders walking to a photo op. His words — and more particularly their lack — were far more significant.
Indeed, Trump seems to see NATO as an ATM, rather than an alliance. “Many NATO countries have agreed to step up payments considerably, as they should. Money is beginning to pour in,” he tweeted afterwards (falsely). During his campaign, Trump repeatedly called NATO obsolete and refused to commit to helping defend NATO countries. That has now been carried through into his first meeting as president with NATO leaders.
[We should be a friend to the US, but not a client state]
The fact that Trump’s family, staff and close associates have, at the most generous interpretation, inappropriate relationships with the murderous Putin regime, and Trump himself has had extensive financial relations with Russian interests in the past, makes his refusal to endorse mutual defence all the more threatening for Europeans.
Senior European leaders understood the import of his failure. “The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days,” Angela Merkel said over the weekend.
The other is the repeated incidences of leaks of intelligence information from Trump himself and his administration. Famously, Trump himself, in a jovial Oval Office meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister that only Russian media were allowed to photograph, shared secret Israeli intelligence on Islamic State with the Russians. Last week Trump bragged to another thug, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, about the location of US nuclear submarines. But more seriously, in yet another of what is a torrent of leaks from US intelligence services under Trump, the Americans infuriated the UK government by revealing the identity of the Manchester bomber. This one wasn’t from Trump himself, or from the White House, but from US intelligence services now apparently happy to leak virtually anything to the media.
At estimates hearings last week, our own security agencies blithely dismissed any concerns about intelligence sharing with the Trump administration.
Australia might believe it has a special status as a Five Eyes member, that our Prime Minister has readily truckled to Trump in order to cultivate relations with him, that American billionaire Rupert Murdoch might always intercede with his friend on our behalf and that Trump appears far more hostile to the regional power in our own neighbourhood, China, than to his friend Putin. But it would be irresponsible for policymakers not to be devoting some serious thinking to whether we can rely on the United States while a leader as reckless and inexperienced as Trump is president. And whether he is an aberration or represents a long-term trend toward US disengagement.
[Trump’s chaotic, dangerous behaviour exposes the limits of US democracy]
More extreme, but still plausible, scenarios present themselves. What if Trump attempts some sort of extra-legal strike, or even a coup or state of emergency, to forestall the threat posed by the investigation into his Russian connections? Do Australian politicians pretend it’s business as usual and continue their traditional vassal state theatrics as the price of a security guarantee that might not be fulfilled if needed?
It’s not, admittedly, a pleasant policy scenario to work through. There are, of course, some foreign policy thinkers — Hugh White is the most notable example — who think Australia should already be grovelling not in Washington, but to Beijing — an appeasement mentality that has adherents within the Department of Foreign Affairs as well.
But a more self-reliant foreign policy that accepts Australia can’t rely on the United States requires substantially greater defence spending at a time when we’re in no fiscal position to meet it — a government couldn’t even rely on using the capital budget to keep such spending out of the budget deficit. It would increase the pressure to make existing spending more efficient, rather than simply as a tool for a protectionist industry policy that readily accepts a 30% protectionist premium on 10-figure procurement projects. It involves choices few officials, let alone any politicians, would like to face about fiscal policy. But the antics of Trump require it.
Colour me red, BK, but I’ve never felt particularly defended by the USA. Perhaps it was my Dad’s experiences in Vietnam. He was 19 – just like the song. Regular army – went from a clerk’s job behind a desk to a SAS unit with men twice his age under him. Hopelessly out of his depth, frightened in the jungle dark. Bottled it all up for decades, thought he was fine, until he decided to “scam” a TPI pension and discovered he wasn’t scamming at all. He broke in the psychiatrist’s office and struggled with PTSD right up until it turned into dementia at the ripe old age of 65- a common outcome, apparently. Of course, we knew he wasn’t fine long before PTSD was diagnosed : the compulsive gambling; the sudden waking in terror at night, grabbing his car keys and taking off. He said he was just a light sleeper and liked night driving.
Or maybe it was my son’s experiences in East Timor. He loved the East Timorese. Not too fond of its history or our, the US or Indonesia’s role in it. Or perhaps his experiences in Afghanistan. He lost friends. He tried to put broken children back together and couldn’t. He marvelled that analgesics were so rare there, the aspirin he gave a little girl who had half her foot blown off took most of the pain away and she was smiling afterwards. He was 23. He couldn’t understand why the Afghani’s hated him and the other Australian soldiers so much. He had no idea of Afghanistan’s history. He still doesn’t- doesn’t want to. He hates Muslims and calls them “rag heads”.
Who, exactly, have the US defended us from, BK? Who, exactly, is threatening us? I’m 52. I can remember being told I must be terrified of the Chinese and the Russians, the Indonesians and Vietnamese, yet I can’t for the life of me remember anyone bombing, droning or invading us. Now I’m supposed to be terrified of Muslims, because not all Muslims are terrorists but all terrorists are Muslims.
Who, exactly, is threatening us, BK? Which nation other than my own put my father and son in harm’s way?
A good point. And while it can be said that maybe our alliance with the US (and NZ) as well as having our own military has meant that we are not on the radar for other nations trying to attack us, it could quite equally be validly said that for many other countries, that very alliance as well as our willingness to jump into any armed conflict that the US desires has many other countries seeing us as a threat and a hostile nation and thus makes us a target.
I suspect it’s a bit of both.
+10 from me.
Totally agree and I’d be interested in BK’s answer.
We have never been able to rely on the US Bernard, though there was some chance a while back. But the Timor thing proved that. We certainly need better defence setups. Start by getting rid of the piece of crap that is the f-35. I can scarcely fly to Broken Hill from Williamtown with out a tanker. Defence has been a profligate waster of money and must be called to account, starting with these lemon coloured foreign built ships. But the US has never defended us, and it only came this far in 1942 because it needed the airbases and supplies.
Murderous Putin regime?
Proof, please.
Agreed. This stuff from BK sounds increasingly like a leader from the NYT. The US premier neolib mouthpiece.
A decent place to start
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_Russia#Under_Putin
OK Camm
Point taken. Now you can have start with this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War
and this:
https://www.iraqbodycount.org/
Was going to say exact same thing..
I think we can count ourselves very very lucky that Putin and his circle are so very circumspect in dealing with the aggressive provocation of Western countries.
Considering the huge amounts of time and treasure the West, particularly the US have spent on undermining numerous elected governments (perhaps BK should look up Nuland of the Neo-Neocons and her evil acolytes re Ukraine putsch), it is little wonder that President Putin comes down very hard on the 5th column inside Russia. So what?
Those who would accept payment from outsiders, betray their own country for personal gain (rather than the benefit of others) deserve little sympathy.
The West/US/Israel kill thousands every year for much much less.
Personally have not believed the Russians wish any in the West ill for a very very long time. The amazing stories of Stanislav Petrov and Vasili Arkhipov should give any Russophobe cause to pause. They want peace and security.
The Neo Neocons and other (dual national) traitors are who the 4th estate should be writing about.
Really don’t think we need to worry…he won’t be around for much longer. but then, of course, we’ll have to deal with Pence. Very scary
What really bothers me is the manner in which the ‘leaders’ at G7 appear to accept the bullying antics of Trump with as little dignity as our glorious leader did after being kept waiting for three hours. He will, of course, be impeached, but our ‘leaders’ have shown themselves to be spineless. Tony whatsisname should shirtfront him.
Just like he said about Purin – then shared a Koala moment. We are a government of co-dependants in an increasingly parlous state. It’s time to grow up and be s mature world player. New Zealand puts us to shame most of the time.
Putin I meant.