We’re all agreed that the eruption of the marriage equality debate within Liberal ranks has been a disaster for the Prime Minister; that he’s lost control of the debate, that he’s between rock and a hard place, that there are no good outcomes from this, or at least no likely good outcomes, between all the threats to cross the floor, move to the crossbenches, deselect MPs and the incessant debate that sucks the air out of anything the government tries to say.
So far, though, Turnbull has assiduously played a dreadful hand as well as he could. He’s called a special Liberal party room meeting. He’s acknowledged that the issue is one for the Coalition as a whole as well as for the Liberal party. He’s repeatedly said that the government’s policy of conducting a plebiscite remains unchanged. And — according to media reports — he intends to let the debate play out on Monday without trying to lead it or taking a position.
All of those serve the most important goal for Turnbull, of hanging onto the leadership. He has demonstrated, repeatedly and at great cost to his standing with voters, that he is not prepared to back any plans to somehow deal with the matter via a parliamentary vote that passes with the support of Liberal MPs who cross the floor. He has made good on his commitment to the Nationals and the far right of the Liberals that there’ll be no change to the policy on marriage equality on his watch.
If Abbott, Abetz and Andrews, and whatever other handful of extremist zealots, want to come after him, they won’t be able to do so on the pretext that he has broken his commitment on this issue. And nor will any possible leadership contender.
But it’s not merely self-interest. Turnbull has limited political capital and not a lot of authority. He has to use it wisely. There’s no point in wasting it getting between the homophobes and marriage equality advocates in his party. He’ll just get bloodied in the fight. Far better for both him and the government to remain disengaged and let them duke it out. It’s unlikely any prime ministerial intervention is going to change anyone’s mind anyway. Why diminish your authority for nothing?
In short, everything thinks the prime minister isn’t handling marriage equality well. But can anyone identify what, exactly, he should be doing instead? It’s easy to point out the lousy option he’s taken, without bothering to note that it’s the least worst of the ones available.
We’ll see on Monday Bernard.
If we end up with a non binding, non compulsory postal plebiscite I’m pretty sure most people will conclude the ‘dud hand’ has morphed into a ‘total failure of leadership’.
Why can’t he just stand up in the party meeting and say he’s decided there must be a free vote in parliament, given the plebiscite was knocked back by the Senate? It’s called leadership. What would actually happen? His foes would grumble but I imagine the majority of MPs would be glad to have the matter dealt with.
I disagree Bernard. The PM has missed several chances in staring down the DELCONs – the first was running with a parliamentary vote from the very beginning, and the last was running with it once the plebiscite push failed. He could have said that he had honored the commitment to try (which was always Tony Abbott’s baby anyway) and now that he couldn’t get a plebiscite up he had to call for a free vote on the floor. Done and dusted! And it would have challenged the hold-outs to openly rise to the surface like a blown-up submarine – which they wouldn’t have dared. Because, gutless…
Nope, next Monday’s meeting will be a yelling and resentment fest of which the last hour will be putting sticky tape all over a postal plebiscite which is the current limp option.
Turnbull has fatally weakened himself and now it is just a sad wait until the executioner steps in.
Don’t joke about Turnbull’s demise. We’re only a heartbeat from the deputy taking over. Prime Minister Joyce?
Owwwwwwww! Peter, don’t even joke about it. It’s a thought too horrible to contemplate.
Er, no. Peter Dutton?
Oh no, we might get a different incompetent rich asshole running the country into the ground. The horror.
Why should he be doing anything different – he dug this hole, a shaft of his own making – he couldn’t wait to play “Leader of the pack”.
It may be that “ everything thinks the prime minister” but most people think “..isn’t handling marriage equality well..” to be astonishing litotes.
Talcum’s weakness, barely a majority in the Reps and zip in the Senate, is his single advantage – he can put it to the party that their daze at the trough is over if he is dumped.
As he said recently, he would not stick around and, as the by-election was being arranged, could don the leather jacket and wallow in an ABC tongue bath about how he tried to drag the trogs, bigots & zealots of the COALition in the 21stC but, alas, it was hopeless and the country deserved better.
As the tory candidate would probably be Blot’s mole, Peter King, it would give him extra pleasure to see him lose and the government fall.
Go for it Talcum, you knowww it makes sense.