Back in 2006, a guy called Chris Anderson, now a robotics hobbyist but then editor-in-chief of Wired Magazine, wrote a best-selling business prophecy. His book The Long Tail asserted that the near future of everything would be radically different from the present, still a “tyranny of lowest-common-denominator fare”. Technology, he said, would soon be refined to the point that it could reflect and appease the uniqueness of every human urge. Mass culture would become niche culture and we would each be free and motivated to define our shape beyond the cookie cutter.
We would see this transition first, he declared, in the consumption of entertainment. Inexpensive digital reproduction meant that a greater variety of cultural items could be more cheaply bought and that an era of “selling less of more” would create both a business and artistic renaissance. Using the company Amazon, then still largely a vendor of books, CDs and DVDs, as his starting point, he predicted a time where we could really be us. If you wanted to watch the cinema of Godard or read the Restoration drama of Aphra Benn, you could. Heck, you probably would.
Since the publication of a manifesto that foretold the rise of consumer power and the death of the blockbuster, two things have occurred. The purchasing power of most Western consumers has diminished. The truly popular culture has become more monolithic. Properties like Fifty Shades of Grey, The Hunger Games, Star Wars, Twilight and all the literary crimes of Dan Brown eclipse the arthouse and have not altered the demand curve — neither on the Amazon Top Ten list, nor anywhere else.
The ongoing marketability of boy wizards and sparkly vampires does not, by any means, counter Anderson’s claim that all sorts of people can be drawn to all sorts of cultural challenges. I also believe that people, given the opportunity, will flourish in their curiosity. But, the thing that Anderson, and many other business analysts, overlook is that our consumer economy is not truly demand driven.
[Razer: Uber boss’ departure is a cynical ploy and won’t make the company ‘more ethical’]
This week in Australia we learned for certain that our consumption would soon be driven by supplier, Amazon. This is one foreign player local reporters are happy to embrace, with local site Lifehacker not even bothering to temper its longing with real analysis. “There can be little doubt that Amazon’s presence in Australia will affect local retail: that’s what disruptors do,” said the report. But don’t worry about it, because “it will also be injecting a swag of new, locally sourced jobs into the economy”.
This is some claim. While it’s true that Amazon, which will be headquartered in south-east Melbourne close to both major freeways and a large population of the desperate and underemployed, will generate a few hundred jobs, it is also true that the company does not boast an exemplary employment record. Vanity Fair has published an account of Amazon’s digital wall of employee shame. Salon offers a record of a culture of systematised bullying. Business Insider reports on suffocating warehouse conditions that have caused employees to faint. The Independent describes the feudal conditions at a Scottish property where impoverished workers live in tents beside their lord. The New York Times, the BBC and even the conservative UK Telegraph have published on the low wages, unintelligible contracts and physical hardship to which employees are subject.
I guess for the sake of balance, we should also include a recent report by The Washington Post, owned, as is Amazon, by Jeff Bezos, a man who last month briefly overtook Bill Gates to become the world’s wealthiest individual. The paper shows thousands eager to work at the company, and even finds a “liberal-leaning” intellectual to say that the $14 per hour jobs, “could actually be a real positive for income equality”.
[Even Keating now admits that neoliberalism should be dragged out the back and shot]
Just how an annual, often unsecured wage of less than $30,000, a bracket in which more than half of all US workers find themselves, works to restore anything other than Bezos’ lost top spot on the global rich list is quite beyond my macroeconomic understanding. But, then again, so is Amazon itself to a majority of pundits who can say things like “that’s what disruptors do!” with a smile.
The true purpose of Amazon is not lost on shareholders, however, who continue to invest in it precisely because it is a company that saves on the variable capital of labour and seeks to destroy all competition. That the company has only shown a few quarters of profit in its 20-year history doesn’t matter one bit. If it continues to dominate consumer markets — cheered on by naifs who celebrate a “swag” of “locally sourced jobs!”– someone other than Jeff will probably see some dividends.
There are a few who see Bezos, once an unapologetic libertarian oligarch, as a political opportunist and as a destroyer, not creator, of jobs. Among them is early Amazon investor Nick Hanauer, whose famously “banned” Ted talk is certainly worth a view. There are those of the one per cent so troubled by a lack of sleep, they are prepared to say not only that monoliths like Amazon destroy jobs, but will ultimately undermine the economies on which they currently feed.
If we’re all earning that “inequality busting” wage described in The Washington Post, we’ll all be unable to buy even the low-cost goods of Amazon. But. Hey, that’s what disruptors do! They provoke inevitable crisis in the systems that brought them life.
I think you’re partly right here, it won’t create Australian jobs, but I don’t think that it will destroy them, well, no more than Amazon not opening up an Australian store would. Australians will continue to use Amazon, wherever it is. And Amazon isn’t really distributing Australian made produce, wherever it is.
You’re the one guy who hasn’t noticed a downturn in retail jobs, then. Formerly our largest employment sector.
Oh, I’ve noticed it. But what I said was that Amazon opening a local office won’t have much effect on this continuing. People will continue to use Amazon, locally or overseas. ‘Bricks and Mortar’ retail is doomed, despite the rent-seeking activities of those like Gerry Harvey.
Sure. Times change. Online shopping has obvious advantages. “Disruption” will continue to occur in the large retail sector, and the SDA will seemingly continue to allow it’s members to work hours that benefit firms, not them.
I am not opposed to technology. I am not a Luddite. The technological advances produced by capitalism are its greatest strength.
Its fatal flaw is the need for profit. And the need, per Amazon who will take customers from the supermarkets and the department stores, for firms to monopolise.
Amazon has been built not only on great tech/logistics but the documented exploitation of workers.
I think it’s easy to see that such dominance leads to (a) underemployment/lower wages and (b) the ultimate failure of even the monolithic firms.
It’s not just a matter of “keep up! This is a great change and get used to it”. It’s about the sustainability of our economy. This is not a sustainable model. What happens when there is just a handful of people able to purchase the contents of these enormous fulfilment centres?
(I apologise for the errant apostrophe of “it’s”.)
Underemployment through automation is likely to occur and be unavoidable,
and your conclusion is correct, we’ll have far fewer people able to afford Amazon. What to do? Universal Basic Income schemes? The government’s clueless, they are making it so we can work til we are older! (not something I’m keen on, personally)
(I’m quite likely to make grammatical errors with apostrophes myself 🙂 )
Fantastic read, HR, and thank you for it.
I honestly can’t get worked-up any more about the destruction of the future. Nobody seems to care and it seems inevitable. $30 million in taxpayer handouts to Foxtel the month after they announce pay cuts to part-time baristas. This Amazon thing is only the latest assault on the young.
If the asteroid is fated to hit, best I make a strong cup of tea and put my fingers in my ears cause the boom when it hits may be a bit noisy.
If it isn’t ” fire and fury like the world has never seen” it’ll be climate change, Nudiefish. I can’t find your resignation, I’m afraid. Comes from having a 27 year old son who celebrates his second wedding anniversary in January, I suppose.
No Mon(ey), No Fun.
Thanks HR. I am glad to read that someone else finds it all so contradictory with the claims based on a foundation of nothing.
I used to buy books from Amazon but stopped doing so about twelve years ago as the packaging and postage were so expensive and the delivery times so long. I have never bought other products from Amazon because the few I considered had batteries and these are a no-no for international deliveries.
On Monday this week my electric kettle stopped working. So I went to Harvey Norman and bought a new one. Though I personally consider Gerry Harvey to be a whinger of gold medal standard, the staff at my local store are extremely helpful. In the last six months I have had a new kitchen installed and replaced both large and small appliances. At the local HN store there is someone to explain the differences between brands; between sizes as in, for example, 60 cms versus 90 cms cooktops or the volume capacity of sink bowls; in styles, such as between tap fittings or range hoods. When I consult the same person on each visit I get good prices. The store keeps a list of my purchases so they can verify these if there are questions of guarantees.
If I order online from Amazon there is no-one to show me these differences and help me narrow down the range of options; to give me pamphlets with the details of the narrowed range of choices so that I can take them home and compare them; to arrange delivery on an agreed date; and to replace items, like the kaput kettle, the day I need it rather than in a week’s time. And all that without the problems of having Australia Post involved in the delivery chain.
I am old and unlikely to change my shopping ways. I like to see what I am buying and know how it will fit in my house. Plus I try to “think globally, act locally” and that includes helping keep jobs for people in my community. Amazon does not meet my expectations in these aspects of making new purchases. It remains to be seen if I am part of a small and ever-declining minority
MJM. I *must* concede that I tend to be a bit of a hybrid shopper. Goods are cheap online and online shopping saves me time I might otherwise be using to earn money. Having said that, I agree that the exchange between people in retail has its own dignity and practical advantage. When I last purchased a fridge, I was so glad to have done so from a nice, knowledgeable franchisee who genuinely wanted to address my cold storage needs! (Actually, he was very amused by the fact that I required extra security on the bottom half of the item, as my cat had acquired the knack of opening the last one and removing his kangaroo meat from the bottom drawer. I got a good deal and we had a good laugh.)
Even so, times change. And though I despair for the loss of human exchange, in retail and elsewhere, I understand that these emerging forms of distribution are just plain handy. But they are built on the gradual destruction of the system that produced them. Innovation can be, often is, wonderful. How, theoretically, great is it that many of the world’s most tedious jobs can now be done by machine? We could all have more leisure. Instead, what we have in the West is more widespread financial anxiety. And an increased inability to buy goods and services provided by the machines that have replaced us. We are, in my view, approaching a crisis. One that can only be solved by taking a real look at the interaction between man and machine, consumer and monopoly, worker and boss, borrower and lender.
Yes I confess I am also a hybrid shopper. I buy clothes from one particular company because I know their sizes will fit me, I have a VIP card so I get discounts and special offers, and I can track the delivery through AusPost online. Clothing items are mostly light in weight so even when I pay for delivery the cost is reasonable. And the one local branch of this store, plus DJs which also stocks this company’s items, is in a mall where the parking is expensive and awkward.
In contrast I can park outside the door at no cost at the HN store and when I bought my new kettle, plus another small appliance, a staff member carried them to my car for me.
Because I am retired time is less critical for me. Convenience is a bigger factor and price is a consideration, including the costs of delivery.
But you’re right – emerging delivery forms are handy and convenient for many. The human interaction is a large part of my reason for shopping personally and I doubt I will change while I am able to get out and about by driving myself.
Thank you, Helen.
Why do we welcome in yet another foreign tax bludging corporation? We have more than we can deal with already.