Before we speak of the latest surge in Western support for crude and bigoted populism, let’s permit any person feeling fragile or hopeless today to depart. Before you pop off, here are three printed affirmations provided by optimistic centrist publications: 1. The centrists strike back! 2. The centre fights back! 3. Macron’s Victory Is A Triumph Against The Dead-End Populism Of Trump And Brexit!
There. Now the infirm have left us to find their placebo in the hot spectacle of Trudeau or the re-election of Merkel, let’s you and me cop a closer look at a diseased Western political establishment whose most visible symptom, populism, currently afflicts the Australian state of Queensland.
Per Laura Tingle’s analysis in the AFR, the two-party preferred ReachTel poll figure commissioned by Sky News only offers one part of the political story up north. Sure, the LNP looks as though it has a good shot at winning, but, as Tingle writes, “the primary vote for both parties has plunged, with Labor at 32.1 per cent from 37.5 per cent at the 2015 state election, and the LNP going from 41.3 per cent to 30.6.”
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has moved from the 15% Queensland polls coughed up a month ago to a more indigestible hairball of 18.1%. If these figures play out on the election day that Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is currently under pressure to declare, PHON could take up to five seats, preventing the LNP from forming majority government.
You can, if you fancy, dismiss this as a barbaric Queensland quirk. But, you’d do well to remember that PHON polls at 8% nationwide. This new party’s numbers now compare to those of the established Greens, currently showing at 9% in Newspoll. PHON does this despite its leader’s recently expressed sympathy for the anti-vax devil, praise for the locally unpopular Putin and wretched failure to develop policies unified by anything more substantial than aversion to things that seem a bit, you know, foreign.
Journalist Margo Kingston can swear all she wants that PHON voters are not always racist. This does not alter the guiding “principle” of party policy, which is bigotry, ergo, necessarily inconsistent. The party is wont to appeal to older voters, reviving their memories of a time of full employment and apprenticeships galore. “In the 1960’s (sic) Australia was a thriving country,” says One Nation. However, the 1960s was a decade not only of intense migration by peoples of non-anglophone nations, but one of Keynesian prescriptions. Still, Hanson is regularly divided when it comes to supporting “the workers out there” in a 1960s supply-side style. At times, she’s been opposed to penalty rates, and at others, in favour of tax cuts for “small” business.
Let’s hope it stays that way, and Hanson continues to concede to market-friendly policies. So long as PHON remains politically naive enough to talk that old-timey full-employment talk while walking with the neoliberals, their political appeal will have its limits. We hope.
As has been discussed by others, the West’s racist populist parties have lately gained significant support through relatively sophisticated critique of regulatory capture, diminished welfare and disdain for financialisation, etc. If you squinted, you could see similarity between the economic policies of Melenchon’s Insoumise and Le Pen’s Front National. Heck. Even Trump spat out the term “working class”.
The difference, of course, between Sanders’ nationalist “Political Revolution” and Trump’s nativist, wall-building fantasy was, as in the French case, race — and, yes, Le Pen didn’t win, but one-third of French voters still thought it was OK to elect an actual fascist. If you remove the bigotry from current populist campaigning, you see comparable partiality to socialised democracy. If you remove the bigot from campaign mode and place them into power, you then see that even the promise to white people of equality was a lie.
News from Germany problematises our hope, though. The centrist, and former occasional racist, Angela Merkel has been returned to power, but will face 88 members of Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) in the Bundestag. AfD has never bothered to conceal its racist agenda, with its co-founder recently urging his countrymen to be “proud” of the achievements of its soldiers in World War II. And it certainly never bothered, as Le Pen and Trump did, to urge for an economic turn. Germany’s third most powerful political party considers Le Pen too “left-wing” in an economic sense, and urges for a sense of individual responsibility — one furthered, presumably, by precisely the kind of national pride on which PHON bases its jumble of policies.
It is simpler in nations like Germany and Australia, shielded for different reasons from the worst of the global financial crisis and its ongoing effects, for voters to indulge a purely cultural politics. That we can be listening now, for example, to John Howard’s rot about the perils of “political correctness” is a sign that hard times have yet to really bite. That Germany can resume its deadly fixation with race is in part made possible by the surplus that nation is delivered by the Eurozone. Pure racism of the current era, we must concede, is a luxury only the well-to-do nation can afford.
But racism mutates and can adapt very well to its political era. If there is no party in this nation ready with both an economic plan for an uncertain future and a true aversion to bigotry, we can expect to see PHON exert its influence.
Oh, jeez. Now I need to go and look at those positive lies about the victory of centrism.
Very worrying, Helen, and as a Queenslander I expect a flood of commentary of what stupid hicks Queenslanders are and how it is only a “Northern Problem”, which of course (as you point out) it isn’t. One Nation is mostly a regional problem, and if your State is large enough to have a big bush community, there you will find PHON quietly mutating in the background, feeding upon disaffected National votes.
Also, as you pointed out, the real question is how this came to be. If we can figure out what the hell happened perhaps we can undo it. The retreat from the major parties has everything to do with neoliberalism, in particular, the Nationals losing interest in their constituents and their embracing the mining lobby. The QLD Labor government chasing after and doing backflips for Adani is another example of the big parties trying to race each other to the bottom. Everybody talks about neoliberalism whilst simultaneously pursuing it to the very death.
I don’t know what the answer is, but I suspect that the electorate might have to face the disaster of a PHON-LNP coalition for a few years in order to educate itself about self-inflicted bashings. The time the majors faced up to realities of their stupid politics has come and gone. Now is the time to reap the whirlwind.
If it isn’t only Queensland, why are the other states NOT voting for the PHONies to the tune of 18.1%???
Having said that, I like to think of those who inhabit our northern state as touched by the sun…you know, a bit like the ‘deep south’ in the good ol’ USofA ! Seems to turn a goodly proportion of the population into racist bigots with xenophobia and a gimme, gimme complex.
However, if said citizens had the where-with-all to become fully informed of what is actually going on with Poorlean and her fellow travellers, things might be different. The amount of garbage being spewed out by journalists in every aspect of the MSM…including ‘their’ ABC…is mind blowing. Limited News…and the Courier Mail…need to stop with the ‘fake news’ rubbish, and start telling people the truth about what is going on in this country.
For starters: alleged Adani crooks causing environmental damage on a grand scale and VERY FEW if any coal mining ‘jobs’…gobsmacking water theft, allegedly organised by the Nats and their compliant public servants…and a federal government causing further inequality for those most affected.
Do they really think that if the PHONies join the LNP up there in Q, all will be right with their world???
dog save me from such overwhelming stupidity!!!
*sigh* I knew it was coming. Glad it’s out of the way.
Pauline Hanson has massive support in Western Sydney, up to five percent of the flipping vote, and NSW lumbered us with Tony Abbott, South Australia with Cory Bernardi, Tasmania with Eric Abetz, Andrew Hastie with West Australia, Kevin Andrews with Victoria and the list goes on. Every State has no difficulty electing dunderheads, but if you think labels are important, ok, us Queenslanders are stupid. I also think that you may have missed HR’s entire point, but you are the smart cookie not me.
There are cultural (and commodity) reasons Queensland may be more inclined to vote for a racist party. But, heck. Look at our politicians down south. Where we STILL , sans the same cultural and material reasons, consider voting for an obviously empty thing at the rate of 8%.
Queenslanders aren’t overly stupid. We all make meagre demands of our democracy, to our peril. And that democracy is now so clearly compromised, it produces reactions like One Nation.
I agree, Nudie. “Queensland is thick” doesn’t begin to describe the problem of populism. Populism is a reaction to the times.
AGAIN EIGHT PER CENT OF US in the south are currently inclined to vote PHON.
Helen…there is a bloody big difference between 8% and 18.1%…are you really that bad at maths??? In my state, I think the PHONies vote was under 5%…long may it stay there!
Nudie…I come from SA, and I wouldn’t vote for Cory B if he was the only candidate standing. The fact that some people did, suggests that he gained those votes because he stood as a LIBERAL…we shall see what happens next time he is up for election. Hopefully he gets chucked out…along with the rest of the crazies!!
I live in rural Qld and a good slice of the people are racist(especially to Aborigines), hate poofters, love guns, are wary of education and think Qld is home to the best. However there is hope because some now think Climate Change may be happening, after being cooked over the last few years. Education, or the lack thereof, is the key to the ignorance.
There is a slightly different outcome in Queensland that could really challenge ALP diehards: Labor wins a couple more seats than LNP but still needs another (say) four to build a majority. There may be one or two Katters and an independent or Green who could be persuaded to join with Labor but they are still at least one short and One Nation alone doesn’t have enough to give the LNP a majority. Horse trading begins – presumably without Pauline Hanson’s involvement since she is never going to be a state politician whilst she is in the senate. Oh yes, true colours will show themselves or perhaps the emperors won’t really have any clothes.
“One Nation is mostly a regional problem”
As are the Nats, the Shooters and Fishers and misc other redneck variants. So are we allowed to question why these sparsely populated areas get such a large political representation in our electoral system?
To paraphrase one Tony Abbott, living in a region is a “lifestyle choice”. Despite their endless whining to the contrary, regional areas are already MASSIVELY subsidised by city taxpayers and inevitable become the recipient of major pork-barrelling at every election.
Cue the cries of “the regions need a voice”…
It’s fine for them to have a “voice” but it needs to be made proportional to their comparatively minuscule populations. If that were true we’d barely hear the “voice” of these conservative hypocrites, which is as it should be.
Small point – you are correct about the minuscule regional populations but if you look at the true amount of subsidised living the Great Wens on the coast are past masters at the trough.
If city dwellers had to pay the full cost of their pampered existence they’d run screaming for a rural town where 4/5 b/r houses on a couple of acres can be nought on the dole.
jes’ sayin’
Well said!
Hey presto Nudie, you didn’t have to wait long for the Qld. bashing to start ! Good old CML from S.A. just couldn’t resist. There’s no shortage of deluded Devil dodgers in the “City of churches” and S.A. has produced the Downer dynasty, Prissy Chrissy Pyne,Cory of course and Nick “LNP lite”Xenophon to name a few ! Not that CML voted for any of them, the lady is for Labor and Labor only, fair enuff too…but where did P.Beattie,W.Goss,Anna Adani or even W.Swan,K.Rudd, B.Hayden come from ??? Maybe they aren’t all Queenslanders I don’t think any of that six-pack of Laborites were crow eaters either !
I’ve got a feeling CML may have a secret soft-spot for PHON’s immigration policies too but it’s only a hunch.
Dear Nudie, yes, I have remarked of late along the lines of ‘what the hell is going on up there in Qld’, but recognise that there are plenty of nuanced and intelligent people there and they are just as numb in response.
For my sins, I am part of Australia, that elected a fool of a government at the last election, to our unending peril. I can’t believe it either.
I followed the link you provided for Hanson’s professed support for Mr Putin. That link typifies the lazy and incompetent nature of much of what passes for “journalism” in this country. I make the following comment as one who loathes PHON, its leader and all that it stands for.
In the interview you reference, Hanson queried the assumption by Barry Cassidy that Putin/Russia was responsible for the shoot down of MH17. That was reinforced by the usually ignorant remarks of Turnbull whenever he ventures into foreign affairs. Australian media, and that includes the ABC and Crikey know tiddly squat about what happened to MH17, or if they do know have been derelict in actually reporting the evidence as it has emerged from a variety (including Dutch and American) sources. The fact that Hanson knows even less is evident from the context of her remarks. But those of us who actually bother to do some research and try to ascertain a fuller and truer picture are sick and tired of the cheap Russia bashing that goes on at every opportunity, and mostly because so-called journalists cannot get off their arse and ask some real questions.
I have written many times here about Russophobia. https://uat.crikey.com.au/2016/10/13/razer-not-easy-to-love-putin-but-clinton-is-no-better/
I agree, it’s nonsense. I was drawing attention to Hanson’s statement about the need for a “strong leader” like Putin.
I concur that there is no strong evidence (there is none) that Russia “hacked” the election. I appreciate your passion, but feel it is somewhat misplaced, here.
The comments section of any internet publication is a fraught place, HR. There is no such thing as quiet disagreement. Apparently, everybody is a fecking idiot.
“That we can be listening now, for example, to John Howard’s rot about the perils of “political correctness” is a sign that hard times have yet to really bite.”
Not so sure about that reason HR. Wonder if it is not a longing for being “relaxed and comfortable” in these terrible days of being surrounded by totally inept government.
Like James O’Neill I followed a link but in this instance re the “occasional racist” tag Ms Razer attached to Angela Merkel. As it happens, the linked BBC piece says nothing about any racism, indeed, and I quote, “In her speech in Potsdam, however, the chancellor made clear that immigrants were welcome in Germany.” Personally I think it’s a shame no Australian leader has had the balls to welcome a million refugees, ignoring the polls & focus groupthink that dominates politics down-under. Gratuitous misinformation, like that provided by Ms Razer, is pathetic.
Hear hear. It’s lazy journalism to assume that calling your opponent racist automatically makes you win the argument.
I guess I thought the statement that German multiculturalism had “failed utterly”, uttered ling before her redemption,was unambiguously bigoted. As did others. Still. One woman’s racism is another man’s reason.
The statement in the Hanson interview was about Putin’s strength. It was a carbon copy of the Trump view, uncritically and, despite my reservations about Russophobia, a statement destined to put au voters off.
It didn’t. That was my obvious point.
Jeez. Is every dad nitpicky on school holidays?
So One Nation voters are secretly crying out for Marxism?
On what level is Putin Marxist these days? PHONs like authoritarianism.