TURNBULL THE CITY SLICKER

Malcolm Turnbull‘s government has lost ground in regional Australia, with Labor now ahead of the Coalition in one of its key demographics.

In today’s quarterly Newspoll, the Coalition is revealed to have dropped 10 percentage points outside of capital cities since the election. It’s time for alarm bells to start ringing for the Nationals, according to David Crowe, who notes the rise of Pauline Hanson‘s One Nation does not explain the result. Labor has increased its share of the vote outside of capital cities by two points since the election.

The new poll finds Labor leading the national two-party-preferred, 53-47. A ReachTel poll commissioned by Fairfax shows the New South Wales state Coalition government doing better than its federal counterpart, leading Labor in the state by 52-48, though both major parties are losing ground to smaller parties.

GST REPORT TO LAND

Both Fairfax and The Australian have previewed today’s Productivity Commission report, predicting the interim assessment will broadly back the way the GST is distributed to states.

But, according to a Fairfax report, the commission has been drawn to reasoning laid out in Tony Abbott‘s 2014 Commission of Audit, which argued the GST should move away from a needs-based system to one carved up based on population, given that Commonwealth grants and national partnerships also operate on a needs basis.

The Australian predicts the commission will recommend changes along those lines so that states are not punished for raising revenue. The draft report will also recommend that states should not be punished for refusing to develop gas resources.

CLEAN THINKING

The Coalition is edging away from Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s recommendation that it adopt a Clean Energy Target (CET).

In a speech today, Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg will argue that the falling cost of renewables and innovation in the sector makes such government intervention unnecessary.

As Frydenberg will not mention, avoiding such a scheme would also placate the Coalition’s anti-renewable warriors, including Tony Abbott, who is off to London this week to speak at a climate-change sceptics society, according to The Australian Financial Review.

READ ALL ABOUT IT

$187,000 to $6.30: Turnbull government subsidy gives hope to cancer sufferers

Nick Xenophon to maintain active role in federal lawmaking despite SA move

Former treasurer John Dawkins to fight ASIC over Vocation collapse

Nobel prize but PM has no time for peaceniks

WHAT’S ON TODAY

Sydney: The Australian Financial Review hosts its energy summit with Josh Frydenberg, Bill Shorten, and AEMO head Audrey Zibelman among the speakers.

Canberra: The Productivity Commission is set to release a wide-ranging report on Commonwealth grants. 

Brisbane: The judgment is to be delivered in a court case determining whether Clive Palmer’s company Mineralogy can escape a $22 million payment to Singaporean company BGP Geoexplorer.

Sydney: Senator David Leyonhjelm launches new book by his former staffer Helen Dale, aka Helen Demidenko.

THE COMMENTARIAT

Energy policy barbecue-stopper requires a multi-faceted plan — Josh Frydenberg (Australian Financial Review $): “The principles that guide our plan include faith in well-regulated markets and an abiding commitment to innovation and harnessing new technology to benefit the consumer.”

Malcolm Turnbull should restrict gas exports today, Labor will support him — Bill Shorten (Australian Financial Review $): “The next Labor government will introduce a National Interest Test for all new LNG export facilities, and for significant expansions of supply at existing export facilities.”

Shrill attacks on ABC adjustments are hysterical, unhinged — Mitch Fifield (The Australian $): “Then there is the proposal to add the words ‘fair’ and ‘balanced’ to the ABC Act alongside the existing requirement for news to be ‘accurate’ and ‘impartial’. Again, it is difficult to ­imagine anyone complaining about this, yet they have.”

Be alert, not alarmed, about Australia’s high household debt — Jessica Irvine (Sydney Morning Herald): “It’s absolutely true that Australia’s household debt to income ratio is one of the highest in the world. It’s also true, and observed by the IMF in its paper, that richer countries are more able to service large household debts. To a large extent, high debt is more a marker of our wealth, not a portent of its doom.”

CRIKEY QUICKIE: THE BEST OF FRIDAY

Politicians’ contempt for liberties shows need for bill of rights — Bernard Keane: “When there’s a bipartisan conspiracy of silence on our basic rights, when the opposition fails to do its job because of political calculation, when the major parties decide that certain issues are simply off-limits to public debate — as happened with the Snowden revelations about our involvement in 5 Eyes mass surveillance, and the activities of the Australian Signals Directorate and other cowboy intelligence agencies — then the democratic argument against a bill of rights breaks down.”

Will the media coverage of Las Vegas lead to more mass shootings? — Charlie Lewis: “Mullen said fame, as a driver, could be identified as far back as the first recorded mass shooting in a Western country in Germany, 1913. The perpetrator stopped at the house of the professor of literature at Stuttgart, dropped off the manuscripts for his plays and books and poetry (all routinely rejected by publishers) and told him ‘cherish these, for tomorrow I shall be the most famous man in Europe’. He promptly shot 20 people in the village of Muehlhausen.”

Tips and rumours — Crikey: “Liberal beckbencher Stuart Robert had a couple of intriguing purchases: Edward Said’s seminal Orientalism and Steve Bannon’s favourite book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy.”

HOLD THE FRONT PAGE