The resounding outcome of the same-sex marriage survey reflects a pro-reform sentiment that cuts across party lines, with blue-ribbon Liberal seats such as Wentworth, Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein and Warringah doing battle with the red-green Melbourne, Sydney, Grayndler and Melbourne Ports to record the nation’s highest “yes” vote.
In this respect, the result has a lot in common with the last occasion when Australians were given a direct vote on an issue: the 1999 republic referendum.
Then, as now, defenders of the status quo saw the reform push as an indulgence by metropolitan elites whose concerns were out of step with a vaguely defined mainstream Australia.
However, the same-sex marriage result is still more intriguing in the ways it has failed to play to the culture war script.
Even if regional Australia and white suburbia didn’t respond with quite the alacrity of inner-urban voters on either side of the party divide, it’s striking that “yes” majorities were recorded in all but a handful of the nation’s most recognisably conservative seats.
It’s also the case that the Yes coalition has a somewhat different complexion from what progressives might have hoped for.
With the exception of three seats in rural Queensland, the distinguishing characteristic of the 17 seats that voted “no” is their large non-English speaking populations.
This includes the entirety of western Sydney, reflecting strong opposition among urban Chinese, Vietnamese, Lebanese and Indian populations.
As illustrated by the results analysis tool on my blog, there was a certain tendency for Yes support to land higher in areas that were wealthier and better educated, and lower among concentrations of families with young children.
However, the variable that best predicted the pattern of results was the share of population identifying as “no religion” in last year’s census.
This is what squares the circle between western Sydney and the predominantly white regional electorates that recorded either “no” majorities or very narrow “yes” ones.
So while progressives have had heartening confirmation of what the polls had been telling them all along, there are plenty of ironies in the result for both sides to chew on.
For the left, the result illustrates the tensions that can develop between progressivism and multiculturalism — a familiar theme in the Netherlands, but one rarely so apparent in Australia.
On the other side of the fence, conservatives who have characterised the struggle as one between liberal permissiveness and “Judeo-Christian civilisation” may need to think again.
Perhaps the most interesting result of all is the seat of Dunkley, based around Frankston on the outskirts of Melbourne. Dunkley delivered the highest yes vote of any outer suburban seat in Australia and the 19th highest overall – at 72%. An unfortunate outcome for Dunkley MP Chris Crewther, a member of the conservative Victorian Kroger forces, who before the votes were in joined Tony Abbott and co to declare support for James Paterson’s Bill. Talk about misreading the mood of your community!
In reference to large proportions of No votes, William Bowe notes:
“This includes the entirety of western Sydney, reflecting strong opposition among urban Chinese, Vietnamese, Lebanese and Indian populations.”
He fails to mention that Western Sydney has large Muslim populations. Around 20% in many Western Sydney electorates.
Is there any reason for not mentioning the elephant in the room?
Ignore that. I should really read articles properly before commenting. A delete button would be nice…
Indians and Lebanese might be Muslims.
And a significant portion of Lebanese (& Syrian) are Christian but in this case, kultur would overrule & merge against SSM.
If the bigot brigade can appropriate “the defense of Judeo-Christian civilisation” to use in their unpleasant and reprehensible crusade against decency then it must be a very poor thing indeed.
However, the side effect of the ABS running the non-binding, junk mail,voluntary opinion poll is that the results will be published per electorate (I read somewhere ‘postcodes’ but that would be too good to be true…) so we will be able to see that a sizeable proportion of the citizens of this country do not want to take part in a 21stC society.
Scroll down a little to enter the postcode…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-15/same-sex-marriage-results-ssm/9145636
Very true AR, the result was resounding enough…but I was hoping for a better response from Australians, 70% or more would have left me feeling a lot prouder of the fairness of our society.
My educated guess is that the No campaign succeeded in swinging about 5% of people to No, so if it were somehow a snap survey/vote without campaigning, you would have seen more like 65%.
A little worrying, William. And your article is the only one I’ve come across that doesn’t paint the outcome in old/young, left/right terms, too. Thanks for that.
Is it too early to start making jokes about liberal progressives being ass-r*ped by their ideological benefactors in Western Sydney?
No. Nor would yesterday have been inappropriate.