Well, the final tallies are in in Batman, and it was not good for the Greens. As the preferences came in, Ged Kearney and Labor’s vote went up. Hardly for admirable reasons. With the Liberals out of the race, all the minor troglodytes poured their votes towards Labor: Australian Conservatives, Rise Up, Australian Peoples Party. The final two-party preferred (2PP) tally: around 39,300 to 34,800. Ouch.
Despite that, Batman is winnable for the Greens in 2019 — as are several inner-city federal seats now being written off afresh. Not likely, by any means, as this correspondent noted before the poll. But absolutely possible and real. Yes, Kearney will almost certainly be a good local member. Yes, the pork will pour into the seat. Yes, she may well be in cabinet. But therein lies the rub. For, as a non-sitting candidate Kearney was able to portray herself as inside and outside Labor’s compromises. No more. She’s broken through; now she owns it.
Kearney, as a Labor supporter, will be an Adani supporter, a Manus Island supporter, a supporter of the remnant ABCC Gillard left in place, of the Fair Work Commission Labor bequeathed us, of the (non-US) Trans-Pacific Partnership, of the iniquitous private school funding arrangements Bill Shorten has endorsed (and which Labor used in robocalls), and much more. The Greens, who have solidly left positions on all these things, will have the opportunity to go in hard, and go in quick, from the moment Kearney is a presence on the national stage.
From word on the ground in the socialist republic of Northcote, the Greens suffered a double-whammy in their heartland. Some younger voters found the bullying allegations against Bhathal persuasive (even though they had not been proven; the world is Salem, 1692, these days); some older voters found Richard Di Natale’s end-run to the right around Labor on the dividend frankingstein repellent: “It’s obscene how little tax we pay,” one retired academic told me, who switched back to Labor, after several elections voting Green.
Thus, for example, the Greens suffered a large 2PP swing against them in Northcote West: 9% (not 34%, as has been earlier reported, after an AEC reporting error. The Australian ran with that figure, big time), about 180 votes, on a total of 1900 voters. That was elements of the Whitlam generation staggering back across the Rubicon that was.
Well, yeah, it was a ham-fisted, late play by Di Natale — though the righteous outrage from Labor figures, with company-union, the SDA at the centre of their networks, is a wonder to behold. The Greens need to remember that their knowledge-class core don’t vote on immediate self-interest: they are system thinkers, with a universal morality. So they see higher taxes on the well-heeled as a social good, expressive of the economy as a wholistic entity, not as the sum of individual strivings.
But, hey, in the heat of the battle mistakes are made. The Greens are still recognisably to the left of Labor on union rights, centralised wage fixing, social services, taxes, university fees and foreign policy – despite the regrettable development of a Greens right, who think Uber is da best thing evah. And, of course, on environmental matters and human rights.
That doesn’t mean the Greens don’t have a lot of internal work to do, in parallel with running an external campaign. But they wouldn’t want to fetishise that process as moral hand-wringing, or be stampeded by outside pressure into the wrong sort of changes either. Anything’s possible. It’s worth remembering that Malcolm Turnbull has one big option: to go to an election as the trial of former Health Services Unionist Kathy Jackson gets underway (and wear the embarrassment of Chris Pyne’s praise for Jackson, and relish Tony Abbott’s praise for her).
Jackson has applied to call nearly ninety witnesses in her defense against multiple theft charges, the trial due in 2019; this would turn the trial into a de facto exploration of the Victorian union movement and hierarchy. There’s a lotta people who wouldn’t come out well of that, in real time. The political landscape could shift very quickly.
The Greens have to manage that most difficult of political tricks: to rebuild the juggernaut, while it careens down the slope. The seat remains a larger, more expansively suburban working-class domain than many commentators were willing to acknowledge; the single-member system will always discriminate against small parties. But in politics, to quote the old Boston Irish saying, you gotta be willing to be lucky.
The Greens fanboy stuff is really grating, detracting from the credibility of both Rundle and Crikey. It is astonishing that Guy does not mention or discuss the growing issues with De Natale’s leadership – primarily his driving a lurch to the center that is hollowing out the Greens historical base of left wing protestors.
An alternate view of Saturday’s result and its implications is the inner city is this – knowledge economy progressives are not wedded to the Greens and will in fact happily change their vote to the ALP when presented with a genuine values based candidate. All the more so when the Greens are happy to ape the attacks of the LNP for base political gain.
That’s how I think. A pro-union member like Kearney inside the tent is better than a protest member on the sidelines.
Which fanboy stuff? This?:
“From word on the ground in the socialist republic of Northcote, the Greens suffered a double-whammy in their heartland. Some younger voters found the bullying allegations against Bhathal persuasive (even though they had not been proven; the world is Salem, 1692, these days); some older voters found Richard Di Natale’s end-run to the right around Labor on the dividend frankingstein repellent….
Well, yeah, it was a ham-fisted, late play by Di Natale….”
By fanboy, do you mean having an oft-stated public allegiance and point of view, that varies from yrs, and advocating for it?
No Guy. “Fanboy” because your usual analysis and rigor is not consistently applied to the Greens, leaving some of your articles close to puff pieces. For this reader that is not good for Crikey and not good for you.
Bullsh*t.
Can’t you Labor trolls bugger off and do something else. Winning pointless arguments on comments threads isn’t going to change anything or impress anyone.
Come off it.
You’ve already started the Greens campaign for 2019 off with the “Kearney, as a Labor supporter, will be an Adani supporter, a Manus Island supporter” stuff.
The ‘knowledge class’ of Greens voters is better described as ‘the would be entitled class that despite getting degrees don’t own investment properties yets’ so blame their lack of financial success on ‘the system being broken’ and want the State to give them stuff in the inner city instead, – green space, bike lanes, museums, and then to stop development so they don’t have to share with anyone.
I’m not wedded to any political party, but it is refreshing just to get some straight analysis for a change. Anytime anyone says anything even remotely positive about the Greens in this publication they get sledged. Even when the analysis is backed up by numbers. Neither the Greens, nor Labor nor the LNP are the least bit interesting, but the way the numbers fall, in my opinion, is very compelling.
Hear hear.
I have been swing voting between Greens and Labor for some time, whilst politically being well to the left of both of them.
Have started voting more tactically for Labour as Greens have been so hollowed out and ‘modernised’ (read: given themselves a rapid makeover in attempts to appear palatable to the wealthy intelligentsia), that apart from their reasonable stance on Manus and Nauru, there’s little to discern them.
Also – they need to deal with their woman problem (also goes by the name of Bob Brown). The treatment of Lee Rhiannon has been revolting, as was Alex Bathal, various volunteers and the deposing of the principled Christine Milne for some schmick-looking wealthy inner city boy (I once, at an event, had to hang out with him for half an hour and he pretty much just campaigned at me the entire time. He is a very nice man, I have to admit).
Always amazes me – Greens used to stand for environmental green forests – the land , animals etc – they all seem to congregate in cities only – concerts jungle, rats and mice as the local wild animals only. Some do not seem to know what countryside means.
This
I guess they might be getting sick of being regarded as a useless protest party? If they were to keep wasting their time just in the bush they would keep getting eaten alive by the Nationals. Fringe dwellers have a hard time of it in Australian politics. Besides which, Labor seems to have deserted the progressives and that vote is laying on the ground just waiting to be picked up. Riveting stuff!
Remind me, when was the last time you heard the Black W(r)iggler mention, even in passing, wildlife or nature?
Since he slithered into the leadership it is as if he had, not Petra Kelly but Joachim Fischer as his role model.
Determined to reduce the party to grey-greenish, minda-sorta irrelevance so long as he could strut his stuff with the tories who despise him
Wotta waste of a medical degree.
I dunno. Perhaps they prefer to broaden their political outlook.
Remind me when was the last time that Labor advocated fighting the corporate destruction of the working class via strike action. That’s right, I forgot. Strikes are now “illegal”.
Nil disagreement there.
“Labor, once the cream of the working class has become the scum of the middle class” – Kim Beazley Snr.
Always amazes me – Greens used to stand for environmental green forests – the land , animals etc – they all seem to congregate in cities only – concerts jungle, rats and mice as the local wild animals only. Some do not seem to know what countryside means.
Well if you looked them up, you would find the Australian Greens shares “four pillars” with other Green parties: ecological sustainability; grassroots participatory democracy; social justice; and peace and non-violence. A lot of subjects are covered by those goals. The Greens’ failure to fit into your narrow preconceptions, based on skewed mainstream media reporting, is no reflection on them.
As for Guy’s reporting about the Greens, I find it informative and even bracing at times. If I wanted faux objectivity, I would not subscribe to Crikey, but would stick to the ABC and Limited News. I pay Crikey for a higher quality of analysis and so far that seems little affected by the political philosophies of the writers. Bernard Keane’s biases are just as apparent as Guy’s, but I still get more from reading them than anything served up by the large broadcasters.
Greens Right, ahaha, great joke *face drops as I realize it wasn’t a joke*
Come on Guy they pulled the Royal Commission stunt and that did not do much harm – Jackson can call as many witnesses as she likes but out here in the real world she has absolutely no credibility whatsoever