House Speaker Paul Ryan
The staggering cost of Donald Trump’s company tax handout to corporate America is starting to worry even Republicans as evidence continues to mount that few of the benefits claimed by tax cut advocates have materialised.
Last year, the White House claimed that US households would enjoy income gains of between US$4000 and US$9000 a year as companies channelled higher post-tax profits into wages rises. The US$9000 figure was attacked by one of the economists whose work was used to derive it, and independent sources derided the US$4000 figure as well.
The latest wages data from the US Bureau of Labor for the first quarter of the year shows that US workers are on track to receive an annual wage increase of just $323 — in line with wages growth over the last two years. Even assuming a two-income household, that’s still a fraction of the most conservative Trump claim.
As has been demonstrated time and again, the tax windfall has gone into share buybacks and higher dividends, benefiting investors and company executives, rather than increasing investment or increasing wages. Nor is the share buyback splurge over. Overnight, the Financial Times reported analysis that “US companies are expected to shower investors with a record amount of share buybacks in the current earnings season”. The recent poor performance of the US sharemarket also means companies have greater scope for share buybacks. “The buyback and dividend bonanza would be a welcome boost to the US stock market,” the FT believes.
The extraordinary cost of the company tax cuts is now receiving greater attention, courtesy of two things: the Congressional Budget Office’s recent fiscal report that showed the tax cut will cost more than US$1.8 trillion over the next 11 years, and House Speaker Paul Ryan’s retirement announcement. Ryan, with an unwarranted reputation as a policy-focused fiscal hawk, will leave with both the Republicans’ House majority under threat from a looming “blue wave” and the US deficit now predicted to reach over US$1 trillion a year in 2020 and nearly 100% of GDP by the late 2020s.
Republicans themselves are now starting to wonder what they have done. “If it ends up costing what has been laid out here, it could well be one of the worst votes I’ve made,” Tennessee GOP senator Bob Corker said recently about the tax cut. “This Congress and this administration likely will go down as one of the most fiscally irresponsible administrations and congresses that we’ve had.”
Australia is in a much healthier fiscal position than the US: our deficit is narrowing, and likely to be gone by 2020 (albeit leaving a large net debt behind to pay down). But the same scenes will play out here if the government is able to con Senate crossbenchers into passing its tax cut bill: the dearth of any benefits for ordinary workers, and the self-indulgent splurge in buybacks and dividends by companies insisting they desperately need tax to invest more.
the conservative trickle down economic ideology again rewards the greedy and punishes the U.S needy, its too late for any middle of the road politician in the U.S to help the ordinary american middle class worker,Bernie Sanders was their last hope but they`ve been so progressively dumbed down to the extent now that they just dont know what to do to change the system, their ideology masters have convinced them that any thing remotely designed to help their social system is communism in disguise and its more patriotic to starve than to submit to social and economic change, but there`s still time for Australia to change course, by throwing out Turnbull and his Neo Conservatives and once again embracing a free and fair Industrial system we can turn the tide, Turnbull needed one more term to complete their take over of all media, legal and Industrial systems and complete the take over of the AFP as an arm of the coalition government, it looks as tho Murdoch is on his death bed, if so the shareholders will probably take control off the remaining Murdoch family members and news limited will move to the centre of the political scene to try and recapture the many customers they`ve lost over Murdoch use and abuse of news Ltd for his own personal power seeking , the coalition is capable of anything to hold onto power, so expect anything from now till election day. its up to the intelligent voters to seize their chance and throw this corrupt lot out while there`s still time.
Well said, Brian.
We can only hope the cross-bench Senators show some common sense…for a change!
I am expecting the use of the spooks through a Uhlman or other stooge to introduce some ‘public intelligence’ as a strategically timed drop to do damage to Shorten. One such drop was made ten days out from what started out as a 50/50 shot for Keneally in Bennelong. Such was the power of it that it drove a Senator from office. The timing looked liked something had been learned from the Comey intervention in the 2016 US election. Pre polling was open on that occasion. I think we will have a rough period with China while it can be useful in this regard. A lot of conspiracy there I know but you did say they are capable of anything and I completely agree including jeopardising a vital trading relationship for domestic purposes i.e. Turnbull keeping his job.
Senator Bob Corkers comment is totally disengenuos, those numbers were out there. They were all over the msm in the US. Adding a trillion dollars to the deficit was making headlines around the world. They did it anyway because their donors were threatening them. That says it all really, about who their masters are. We need to get this part cleaned up on this country with a federal corruption watchdog and donation laws that are fair dinkum.
Senator Bob Corkers comment is totally disengenuos, those numbers were out there. They were all over the msm in the US. Adding a trillion dollars to the deficit was making headlines around the world. They did it anyway because their donors were threatening them. That says it all really, about who their masters are. We need to get this part cleaned up on this country with a federal corruption watchdog and donation laws that are fair dinkum.
“Trickle Down” is such a great descriptive term; almost as a reflex, one’s mind translates to . . . . pictorial ‘imaging’.
A gallery of political profiles focus. Add audiovisual. Numbness! Trickle down. Senator Abetz . . . words; ‘trick’ l i n g . . . do o w w n n e .
Brian,
Would love to, but cannot bring myself to vote for Shorten ………
I just hope that the cross-benchers are made aware of this so that they can make a fully informed vote…
Well, Derryn Hinch does write for Crikey, so let’s hope he also reads it!
Good point Evil.
Bernard should make sure he does.
BTW Mr Keane, good analysis and timely.
Good to see the cobbler back at his last. (That ‘wewarntheTzar‘ above was a bit of a gobstopper!)
Joe Bageant wrote his cri de cœur, “Deerhuntin’…” as a warning, after Shrub was allowed back in power in 2004, that these same good ole boys might elect someone worse in the future.
Imagine what he would have made of the Drumpfster.
A good, concise summation of everything we’ve already heard/read about corporate tax cuts.
I’m disappointed that BK has fallen for the long-spruiked paranoia about national debt though. The latest figures I can find (2016, admittedly) describing federal interest payments as a proportion of revenue have them at less than 4%.
I have a modest mortgage by modern standards (early gen x) and I pay 8.5% of my revenue in interest, which I’m quite happy with – its less than rent, and in the end I get a house.
Businesses gear themselves to the hilt if they think the pay back will be worth it.
Investment in social and physical capital, if not too unwise/pork-barrelling/corrupt can and does more than pay for itself in the medium to long term.
Debt paranoia is part of the neo-liberal scare campaign to reduce taxation, ironically while its proponents historically run up more debt and tax higher than Labor governments in Australia.
Sorry, I meant “Debt paranoia is part of the neo-liberal scare campaign to reduce GOVERNMENT SPENDING”, not taxation, although the two are obviously linked. It’s just that the neolibs don’t like spending on things like health and education, because they can pay for it themselves.
Were US households expecting income gains of something between US$4000 and US$9000 a year? No, because it’s pure hyperbole and most reasonable people wouldn’t have taken this claim seriously.