Liberal MP Sarah Henderson is concerned about renaming an electorate “Cox”
As the first rumblings of election date speculation take hold, the party machines are now finally in a position to plot tactics with a clear sense of what the battlefield will look like.
This follows the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of new draft boundaries for two states and one territory, each of which will have a substantial bearing on the shape of the election.
Notionally speaking, the Turnbull government has lost its majority without a vote being cast, mostly thanks to the creation of new safe Labor seats in Victoria and the ACT.
On top of the easily quantifiable impacts on party margins and seat shares, the changes will disrupt the major parties by disturbing finely calibrated balances of factional power.
Labor gets one uncomplicated free kick from the new ACT seat, which some creative thinkers suggested could provide Kristina Keneally with a safe berth in the lower house.
On the other side of the fence, this new seat gives conservative revanchists still more to grumble that Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison haven’t cut more deeply into the public service.
The ACT’s seat entitlement has long straddled the boundary between two and three, but only previously tipped over to three at the very end of the Hawke-Keating period – and it shortly went back to two after Howard government cutbacks did their work on the local population.
Even safer for Labor is the new seat of Fraser in Victoria, which will accommodate deep red territory on Melbourne’s growing western fringe.
This outcome was predictable enough that it provided a catalyst for the demise of the “stability pact” between the figureheads of Left and Right in the Victorian ALP, with the Left falling out over a spoil that was pre-emptively allocated to it.
The picture is now further complicated by the determination of Bill Shorten – who is, on top of anything else, the most powerful figure in the Right — to take the seat for himself.
However, this is a better problem to have than that confronting Liberal MPs Chris Crewther, whose south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley will become a notional Labor seat, and Sarah Henderson, who is now lineball in Corangamite.
Corangamite is to be renamed Cox, causing Henderson to complain that a “member for Cox” might inspire schoolboy sniggering, but the change reflects an underlying issue that is of more tangible concern for her.
The name change arises because the lake from which Corangamite is named is to be transferred out of the electorate, part of a long-term process in which the seat has traded declining conservative rural territory for growth areas of outer Geelong and the Surf Coast.
There was better news for the Liberals on Friday when the final seat of draft boundaries was unveiled for South Australia, where the commissioners were required to chop one of the existing 11 seats.
Labor is to be taken down a peg with the abolition of its traditional stronghold of Port Adelaide, though much of its territory is now to be transferred to Hindmarsh, a currently knife-edge seat that will become safe for Labor.
It might be thought the resulting preselection headache would be resolved by the looming retirement of Kate Ellis in neighbouring Adelaide, allowing both Port Adelaide MP Mark Butler and Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas — one a rising star, the other not so much.
However, both are male and from the Left, whereas the Right expects factional stalwart Ellis to be replaced by one of their own, and gender balance demands her successor be a woman.
One aspirant already in place ticks all the required boxes: Marielle Smith, a former adviser to Ellis who currently holds a position as adviser to Julia Gillard.
It may be that Georganas, whom an unidentified party source quoted in The Australian helpfully described as a “loyal and faithful soldier of the labour movement”, is instead asked to take on the marginal Liberal seat of Boothby, which is set to absorb the southern parts of Hindmarsh.
The draft boundaries are now subject to a period of objections and reconsideration, but it would be an uncommon event if this resulted in more than tinkering and perhaps the odd name change.
It is only when the process is finalised, likely around August, that it will become feasible for the government to go to an election, as the states are constitutionally entitled to the seat shares that have been calculated for them come what may.
That development will add urgency to the already popular parlour game of guessing whether the government will take its chances with an election between September and December, or hold out in wait for an elusive poll recovery until the new year.
Don’t see how an election is possible between September and December due to the no-go zone of footy finals and then the start of the Victorian election campaign. Ditto for next year with the NSW election and then Easter. Lock in 18 May.
Totally agree. Unless Malcolm has his own ‘Tampa’ come sailing over the horizon in the latter half of this year, the opinion polls, the NSW and Vic State elections, and the summer and winter breaks will guarantee that he has to wait until next May.
Nice call Curmudgeon; sounds about right to me too.
On redistribution of boundaries; I languish in a federal “safe” National Party seat, Cowper in NSW and redistribution seems to be in the never never.
I believe the Nats have held the seat continuously with only one break.
It would be great to see them get the boot before I shuffle off to the great polling booth in the sky.
Don’t know what margin your Nats member has but there would be numerous young people and probably many Indigenous people in your electorate who are not even registered to vote. Compulsory voting is a dead letter in Australia because steady, continual defunding of Government departments, year after year, has rendered them incapable of enforcing anything non life-threatening. Additionally, making the Electoral Commission unable to enforce compulsory voting is a handy method of voter suppression for the present government since the majority of those not registered to vote would be potential Labor voters. Potential Nats destroyers are out there, RL. You, or perhaps your local Labor branch, just need to get them registered.
That needs to be said, often & often.
Absolutely right on every point Rais.
I’ll follow up your suggestions as best my geriatric self will allow.
Thanks.
my guess is malcolm will be convinced to stand down,( lets say for the old excuse of family reasons), if his polls dont improve by september, then a fill in leader will be used till election day, the coalition will lose badly, then Abbott and his faction will take the liberal leadership on the basis he`s their best opposition leader and also to stop mass defections to one nation and bernadi by disenchanted right wing ultra conservatives, the same with the nationals and barnaby joyce, thats the only option left for the die hard old neo cons currently controlling the libs.
RL dont despair, I too live in redneck heartland in the seat of new england but am greatly encouraged by the new maxim, THERE IS NOW NO SUCH THING AS A SAFE SEAT, and I sense a feeling of despair amongst the rednecks as their world is slowly sold out from under their feet by joyce and his corrupt national party, the interests of big mining are foremost in the actions of todays national party and the hip pocket nerve of the locals is throbbing badly as their standard of living goes south while their living costs go ever northward and we all know that nerve is the most sensitive part of their greedy bodies, I`ve been polled twice in the last few weeks and I`m sure bonker boy joyce is testing the water as to his chances, dont be surprised if he announces retirement and takes a high paying job with his bestie Gina.
“Labor gets one uncomplicated free kick from the new ACT seat, which some creative thinkers suggested could provide Kristina Keneally with a safe berth in the lower house.”
Mostly being played as wait-and-see until the outcome of Katy Gallagher’s High Court citizenship case is known. If Gallagher loses there is the option of her running for HoR at next election. She is well-known, -liked and -respected in ACT.
I presently live in the sea of Fenner, previously known as Fraser after first MHR Jim Fraser, but mine is one of the Belconnen suburbs scheduled to move to the proposed new seat.
The electorate…and area known as Port Adelaide…is an icon in my state, and even though I don’t live there, I am gob-smacked that the AEC would even contemplate removing it.
IMHO the AEC should go back to the drawing board!!