Can the government spend its way to an improbable victory at the next federal election? We’re about to find out.
A big lift in tax revenue has given it over $26 billion over forward estimates, plus another $7 billion extra this year, to play with.
Did it use that windfall to bring us back to surplus and pay down debt more quickly?
Well, the improvement in the budget bottom line — $6 billion next year, $4.8 billion, $1 billion the following year – shows that the priority has been spending the windfall, not devoting it to fiscal discipline.
What’s clever about the budget is that much of the spending is both politically convenient and justified in policy terms.
The personal income tax cuts — which will cost around $13.4 billion over four years — are at the lower end of expectations, but designed to ramp up from 2022-23.
There’s a risk of the electorate regarding $10 a week as fairly useless after years of wage stagnation. Scott Morrison was at pains at his budget press conference this afternoon to insist that it “mattered”, invoking The Daily Telegraph as authority, despite the tax cut amounting to a bacon and egg roll every week.
But there aren’t too many people demanding the government hang onto the proceeds of bracket creep, and it doesn’t jar too much with the fact that the budget remains in deficit.
Measures aimed at making it easier for older Australians to remain in their own homes, and incentives for seniors to retain links to the workforce, don’t look too flash from an intergenerational perspective given older Australians are already doing very nicely from the tax system thank you, but keeping people out of aged care and encouraging workforce participation are sound measures.
The latter also complements one of the government’s signal achievements — lifting the workforce participation rate to record levels despite the ageing of the population.
There’s also substantial infrastructure spending — or at least significantly more substance than the farce of the 2017 budget, which was advertised as a major fillip to major construction but in fact saw a fall in investment.
The $1 billion urban congestion fund — although inadequate to fix on suburb’s congestion let alone our major cities’ — is an important step to further involving the Commonwealth in urban infrastructure. Hopefully, the next step is some serious action on road pricing.
There are some noticeable omissions from the largesse: the government’s enemies.
The ABC has copped an $80 million cut to its funding. There’ll be a $300 million cut to welfare via an extension of the notorious, and deeply flawed, robodebt process. Migrants will have to wait longer to access welfare. Foreign aid will be cut yet again.
The focus on the political goal of spending its way to victory seems to have meant the government has lost interest in the economy. Growth will stick at 3%, although finally it will manage that without the support of tens of billions in deficit spending (but still with record low interest rates).
Unemployment will meander along above 5% into the 2020s, as if we’ve decided to abandon the goal of getting it down further.
That makes the government’s wages growth forecasts look even sillier — one wonders if they’ve bothered reading the Reserve Bank governor’s recent warnings that wages growth, like everything else, will only return gradually. It will be 2020 before inflation returns to anywhere near the middle of the RBA’s inflation range.
It’s a wholly political budget, with the government content to leave the economy on autopilot and vacuum up extra tax revenue to try to give itself a fighting chance at the next election, whenever it is.
“Hello Sailor. Lookin’ for a tax cut?
”AMal?”
“AMal costs more.”
“No worries. I’m treatin’ meself ….. got the gran’kids debit card Right here.”
Has political leadership finally achieved a confidence to an extent they no longer need even a pretence; that their hold on power ‘trumps’ need to prepare, equip our nation for rapidly changing global uncertainties. National reliance upon the self ie Australian peoples; far exceed a twentieth century outlook. Looking for a twenty-first century big brother may prove very difficult once China/America really butt heads.
Both Prime Minister/Treasurer tonight, placed their own political ambitions before the Nation. We may not get a second chance to rectify a divided peoples lack of trust in their leadership; nor redress projected national $340 billion debt.
Frankly I think America is all talk. They can no more afford to butt heads with China or vice versa. Trump is rightfully treated as some crazy oddity by them (and the rest of the world) and I think they realise he won’t last his term out.
By chance, and some alacrity, we happen to be placed somewhere in the middle and can mutually trade/profit with/from almost every other country, specially England now they’re leaving Europe. If our 2 major parties don’t totally F it up we should be OK.
I agree with your last para. Looks like Labor will only be marginally better (still no medicare dental in sight). I hope many of the younger generations will think carefully about the next 25-35 years and look closely at the Greens policies.
Julia made a start on Medicare dental, …….
This isn`t a budget its a fudgit, the old pea and thimble trick, voodoo economics, scomo says look over there into the distance, is that a tax cut?, by the time it arrives wage earners will be that far behind with no/low wage growth that any small tax cut will be long swallowed up by cost of living increases, and making the tax rate a flat thirty two and a half percent for all rewards the rich and punishes the low wage earner who doesn`t pay anywhere near that now, typical economic pandering to big business by this corrupt bunch of corporate lap dogs.
Another mean and tricky budget from a government which is looking more like the dreadful Fraser/Howard governments of the late 70s and early 80s minus the inflation. The $530tax offset will be more than negated by inflation and other living expenses in or out of the CPI bag – child care (as the Liverpool Mayer stated last night post-budget), toll roads with increases in them and more tolls to boot, rises in cost of Opal Card, private health insurance, etc. This is a right crap budget drawn out to 7 years. A con job by any stretch of the imagination. 7 years is way too long to plan for tax changes and 7 or dare I say 5 year plans should only be staged with money reserved for infrastructure specified for designated projects. Tax cuts are absorbed as soon as they occur and bracket creep will still occur. The beneficiaries will be those earning over $200,000 from 2022.
Still a lack of vision but with the general mind focused on debt and deficit it is hard to broadly criticise. A broader approach is to withdraw from some defence acquisition projects which are ludicrous but the problem still remains. WE are a country struggling for relevance and prosperity and the government is banking on all of us working to at least 70. This is the real kicker. How has this been factored into budget calculations? One for the bean counters I guess. I’m not cheering and although infrastructure is going to be allocated for other states, here in NSW we are still the losers with both Liberal governments determined to punish us with yet more toll roads and high rise development.
As an example of blatant viciousness, beefing up the robodebt machine is hard to beat.
Once these sort of behemoths start moving, having destroyed the original objective they just move on to the next easy victim.
Niemöller’s lament should be borne in mind by those yet unscathed, you will be next.