Two opinion polls with contrasting stories came out today. You can bet Newspoll, which shows the government pulling back some ground but still trailing Labor badly, 47-53, is closer to reality than the Ipsos poll from Fairfax, which showed unalloyed gloom and doom for the Liberals on 45-55.
Apart from being insufficiently frequent to offer more than a snapshot, Ipsos continues to have a problem with its estimate of the Greens vote, which it insists is 15% nationally. Newspoll — which used to overestimate the Greens itself — has it at 11%. There’s no way the Greens have 15% support nationally, and might not even have that in Melbourne anymore. What does seem clear, though, is that expectations that the Greens might face a Senate wipe-out next year might have been overblown, although they’ll still struggle.
Whether you buy The Australian‘s narrative of a Liberal resurgence under Morrison (although Peter Van Onselen essentially called it bullshit) or Fairfax’s narrative that the government has actually gone backwards since even the smoking-ruins aftermath of a pointless leadership spill, it is clear Scott Morrison is a different leader than Turnbull.
Turnbull would still be wrestling with the leaked religious freedom report and its toxic “let’s clarify how to discriminate against kids” recommendation even now, engaged in a complex calculation of how much he had to pander to the right on it. Morrison tried a couple of days of holding the line — “it’s existing law”; “it’s a report to government not of government” (I’ve love a bottle of wine for every time a politician’s run that one) — before a tactical retreat at the end of the week saying discriminating against kids would be out, and quick.
Ditto on aged care, with Four Corners now causing royal commission even before programs go to air. Morrison moves fast where Turnbull dawdled in what was for him an uncharacteristic but deeply damaging paroxysm of indecision about how to respond to various crises.
(You even wonder whether the government’s monstrous bill to force tech companies to insert backdoors in their products and plant malware on their users’ devices might suffer the same fate now that even reactionaries like Miranda Devine have worked out the dangers of undermining encryption.)
This has helped with what would have happened anyway — the 56-44 result in the aftermath of the leadership debacle was never going to hold; the question was always once voters got over it, where they’d land on the “new” government, which is still an open question.
And while Morrison’s agility is good news for the government, the same problem remains as under Turnbull — why that agility is needed. The Coalition’s tendency to invent ways to trip itself up in the manner of a vaudeville drunk, continues unabated. Who leaked the religious freedom report? If it was a moderate disgusted at the idea of discriminating against kids, they’re a genius, and may well get a ban on discrimination against teachers as well, but at the cost of blowing up the government in the lead-up to the Wentworth byelection. If it was a conservative, nice work — you’ve ensured the further rollback of the indulgence accorded to reactionary institutions. Another triumph.
As for Wentworth, don’t believe the hype. This is a very safe Liberal seat that will take a colossal protest vote to pose a threat to the Liberals, no matter how awful Dave Sharma is as a candidate. A bold prediction: the government will hang onto it despite a sizeable swing, and Scott Morrison will continue to respond quickly as more political fires break out. But will that be enough? Probably not. They would have been better sticking with Turnbull.
It appears that the leaks from within the party have now stopped…only to be replaced by a leaky Public Service.
The AFP will be running around like blue arsed flies from now until the election is called.
The Public Service haven’t seen or been given copies of the Ruddock Report, so all leaks on that are from within Cabinet.
True but I was thinking more about border farce
PM&C ran the secretariat for Ruddock, so they would’ve seen all the submissions on the way in. It’s less likely many public servants would’ve seen the finished report.
Pretty sure that Talcum had a copy before his defenestration.
Not that he would have the slightest motive for causing Mr Shouty trouble.
“Is Morrison’s agility enough to get the Liberals over the line?”
Why would anybody in their right mind want to keep this mob?
I dunno Wayne, I’m starting to feel like I’m a visitor from another world, so maybe everyone has gone crazy.
I’m still waiting to hear that I was found as a baby in the burning wreckage of a rocket from a distant planet, alas with no special powers. The evidence suggests it is me who is out of step.
I suspect BK is right about Wentworth, so many of the burghers don’t know how to swipe left on the liberal party.
Interesting how the wealthiest electorate in Australia is probably the most intransigent. Certainly their accumulated wealth isn’t a product of intelligence.
I’d like to know the source and / or reasons for Bernard’s statement re Greens level of support.
Do you have a secret Keane-o-meter or something? Or is it just your gut feel and therefore no more reliable than the polls you’re criticizing?
There’s been a fairly consistent polling difference between the two pollsters on the Greens, but last election numbers line up much better with 11% than 15%.
Add on top further disparagement at the Greens indulgences aping the disastrous end of the Democrats, and I think Keene has the Greens on the nose for this one.
Keep kidding yourself there Bernard. Newspoll waited a whole extra week before releasing its poll (it was supposed to come out last Monday, following its usual 1 per fortnight formula), which immediately leads me to suspect that they spent the extra week massaging the numbers to make them look better for the Coalition. Add in the fact that Newspoll continues to overestimate the Coalition’s preference share *and* the failure of almost all of their recent polls to pan out & it’s fair to say that the true standing in the polls is probably closer to 54% to 46%.
Either way, the Coalition are looking at a swing of about 3% to 5% nationwide, with even bigger swings in key battleground states. A fact I doubt that Morriscum will ever be able to completely correct…..even without the help of his loyal servants, like yourself.
Even if you sought to put the best possible spin on Morrison’s backflip, the facts shold prevail. When the leak first occurred, his reaction was the true Morrison, which is to say. Smarmy (slimy or unctious are similar words), arrogant and fundamentally nonsensical. The notion that there was nothing to see because the law (section 38 of the Sex Discrimination Act) already enshrines blatant discrimination against carefully targeted groups is simply farcical and a true measure of just how atrocious Morrison is as a man and as a PM. Then again, I would expect that from a fool who spends most days cultivating his “baseball cap and moleskins” persona. He is trying to appear to be an ordinary and blokey bloke. No real problem with that, except that his history in business and politics show him to be a buffoon, an intellectual lightweight and a master only of weasel words, as befits a failure in management who allegedly was roundly despised by those he worked with in Tourism Australia. Of course, the gravest concern is that 45% of people support him as PM, presumably because he is not Bill Shorten.
Exactly!!
Great work Ill Fares, you have neatly captured all his best points and just skimmed lightly over his many faults….quite the complete christian isn’t he?