Scott Morrison is sensibly trying to continue Malcolm Turnbull’s efforts, made late in his prime ministership, to mend relations with Beijing. Yet — because nothing sells China these days so well as large dollops of fear and loathing — Morrison’s first significant talk on the topic, a speech to the Chinese community in Sydney on October 4, went all but unreported until picked up by John Menadue’s policy-focused website, Pearls and Irritations.
Morrison repeated the themes of Turnbull’s August address at the University of New South Wales (which was pointedly made in the presence of China’s ambassador to Australia). A particularly strong focus was given to Chinese immigrants who live in Australia, and Australians with Chinese heritage:
There are 1.2 million Australians who identify as having Chinese ancestry — that’s larger than any other people of non-Anglo Saxon background. Despite some attitudes shown to Chinese Australians in earlier times — times long passed — Chinese Australians have always maintained a faith in our country, a devotion to family and hard work and a simple love of the Australian way of life. We cherish their contribution in all its facets. It enriches us, and that means we’re better for it.
Morrison’s speech, like Turnbull’s before it, came at a time when relations between Australia and its biggest two-way trade partner and wannabe regional hegemon continue to plumb depths not seen in almost a decade, and possibly longer.
Top-level visits between Australian and Chinese senior leaders have been frozen by Beijing since both Turnbull and Julie Bishop bravely took China to task for its illegal, military and resource-focused encroachment into the South China Sea.
After Turnbull’s speech, both he and Bishop signaled their intention to attempt to travel to Beijing this year. But the Chinese government, via its official and semi-official media mouthpieces, have continued to pour scorn on Australia:
Canberra and Tokyo should not allow the resurgence of the Cold War paranoia that has already taken hold of the US, shape their actions …
[Australian leaders] should realise the full significance of a return of the full-scale mistrust of the Cold War, as it will create a fragile peace that risks being shattered by the slightest misstep. They should be aware that letting the US lead them by the nose as it pursues a confrontational strategy toward China is really not in their best interests.
China Daily editorial, October 13
And here is the rub: for the foreseeable future, Australia will remain between a rock and a hard place with China and an increasingly unpredictable US as its key strategic ally. It’s a position underscored by swelling numbers of US Marines stationed near Darwin’s China-owned port.
Menadue (a former Japan envoy and senior bureaucrat) and a list of other former ambassadors, including some who are long-time Communist Party critics, have welcomed Canberra’s continuing efforts at constructive engagement. And Morrison is, in his own words “relishing” the opportunity to directly engage with Chinese leaders during the annual summit season. But he should be careful what he wishes for.
Like Turnbull, Morrison gave Beijing effective full reassurance that Australia won’t join the US’ trade wars, lauding the influx of Chinese cash and people into the Australian economy. But what remains unclear is whether Beijing is interested in engagement on anything else but its own terms.
Meanwhile, the trade war with the US is heating up and there is already fallout in commodities prices and stock markets. The Chinese economy appears to be staying lower for longer, as evidenced by recent stimulus measures that have seeped out of Beijing. All this also flows into Australia’s other main trade partners including the US, Japan, South Korea and the big Southeast Asian economies, as well as New Zealand.
“Now Australia and China won’t always agree; we have different systems, national interests and concerns — spawning, naturally enough, alternative views from time to time,” Morrison said in his October 4 address. “But this is what’s crucial: we manage these divergences constructively, guided by the principle of equality and our deep and abiding mutual respect.”
For now at least it seems Beijing is not interested in reconciliation until Australia, as the state-run China Daily said, stops “being led by the nose by the US”.
Resentment is also bubbling away amongst the “don’t sell the farm” NIMBYs — usually led from the front from the agrarian socialists in the National Party — over the impending sale of James Packer’s private company Consolidated Press Holding’s vast agricultural assets worth up to $1 billion, upon which China has its acquisitive eye.
Readers may remember Chinese companies were barred from acquiring Australia’s largest cattle station group S. Kidman by then-treasurer Morrison in 2016. Gina Rinehart eventually bought the company.
Morrison may have good intentions, but until Australia (whether this government or the next) bites the bullet and clearly outlines a medium- to long-term China policy, the bad blood is likely to continue flowing.
Perhaps if Morrison’s government points out the similarities between China’s actions and those of our “unpredictable strategic ally” in “protecting their interests” and “developing their military capabilities”
China used to prefer the cyber & friendship-societies approach… mutually beneficial projects… & they bought a LOT of ore & made towering EMPTY steel cities. methinks some gratitude is in order)..
Possibly Scot could backpedal on the Insidious softpower talk. Australia could remain independent..
Maybe Scot could gently explain – like a real World Leader- to our UnpredictableStrategicAlly that surrounding a country with bases and bombastic talk is likely to result in hard feelings & a build up of weaponry, that really, now may not be the best time for Raytheon & Lockheed Martin to be setting up in Australia.
Lets hope China is smart & like NK & SK, talks up International Cooperation instead of letting vested interests set the agenda. The world is still waiting for leadership to solve our real problems.. plastic/ pollution, climate change..marine and land environments despoiled…
lets hope the money people are making in the name of Self Defence is enough for them all and it stops there. There are surely just as big profits ( & phat government contracts) in cleaning up sea, land & air
And today another own goal from the genius tacticians in the LNP; Jerusalem. Indonesia must be feeling very relaxed and comfortable.
Reconciling with China? A tad ambitious methinks.
I remain unconvinced Morrison is yet reconciled with his own party – look at the current tensions with the Leader of the Senate over last night’s idiotic vote. And now Indonesia is looking wonky over our trade deal due to the embassy in Jerusalem nonsense. Let’s see how long Morrison holds his colleagues’ support.
I would like to see him gone as soon as possible; along with his ridiculous ball cap.
China can tell the Morrison government ain’t long for this world. Unlikely to be any serious engagement with a government that won’t be able to do anything anyway.
On the one hand, Michael, you have written a reasonable article but it does have a number of holes that would only be of interest to an informed audience. Xi is quite ok with S. Kidman going to an Australian national. In fact the Chinese would expect nothing less. Had the group been sold to foreign interests on terms not available to China there would have been real trouble.
The place is still smarting over IT contracts that some feared would possess back doors but apparently one could not imagine back doors from European or American vendors.
The “led by the nose” statement will have a direct bearing if Morrison so much as moves a paper clip to Jerusalem (from Tel Avi). Such an event would be perceived as being “led by the nose”.
As to a remark by Sue, Asians do not “do gratitude”; at least not diplomatically. That the price of iron ore declined 50% (albeit with a recovery, now to US$71 – although it was $63 during July) was the result of alternative markests that the Chinese pursued (and Rudd [et al] thought could not happen)
Another homework question : “Should Morrison mention (or lecture) climate change to Xi or is the Liberal party’s position on climate change (i.e. do nothing) a positive factor in the Oz-China diplomatic relationship”?
Apoligies : I omitted to answer the question contained in the headline. If an independent wins Wentworth and Morrison can create a sense of being his own man towards Trump (there was the longish heart-to-heart telephone call) then I’d put the the chance at 60-75%. It also depends upon how well the Minister presents. Julie was regarded as something of a loose canon.
Kyle, I find your comments about the reactions of China to Australia instructive. You ask, is Oz’s LNP lack of position on climate change “a positive factor” in our “diplomatic relationship”?
Taking a wild guess, I expect it will re-enforce the Chinese feeling that, as minnows, we like to throw our weight around, pretending to be carrying out “informed consideration” whilst doing absolutely nothing. This will only confirm their idea that we are no more than US stooges?
I have little hope that Morrison will be able to convince them he’s “his own man towards Trump”. Nothing he has done to date suggests otherwise. So far, Marisse Payne has shown herself to be a “noddy”, standing passively next to him while he spouted his wild ideas about transferring our embassy to Jerusalem, and reneging on the Iran deal.
Why was J. Bishop seen as a loose cannon by the Chinese? By which I mean, any more of a loose cannon than the whole LNP Government has been?
“I expect it will re-enforce the Chinese feeling that, as minnows, we like to throw our weight around, pretending to be carrying out “informed consideration” whilst doing absolutely nothing.”
Doing nothing is actually logical and hence attractive to our largest trading partner. We SHOULD have a research body AND an energy policy but the incessant yapping (even within Crikey; subscribers and Mr K.) is unproductive and embarrassing.
“This will only confirm their idea that we are no more than US stooges?”
No; we would be stooges if we adopted the recommendations of Mr K. et al. The Libs, ironically, display a measure of independence, to Asia, if for the wrong reasons.
So far, “Marisse Payne has shown herself to be a “noddy”, standing passively next to him …”
Ditto for Ms Bishop – on ANY number of occasions to “her” PMs
“Why was J. Bishop seen as a loose cannon by the Chinese? ”
Excellent question b.b. and I was remiss for not making the statement clear. The answer is that Asians value consistency above everything; even in personal relationships. To be “nice” one day and to display anger the next will wreck everything. The reason for the display of anger is not important. What is important is uniformity (and, if you prefer, discipline).
The statements of Bishop (read them for yourself) were all over the sky in terms of consistency. Such is something the Pane needs to take into account.
A note on emissions. Using an axe as a hammer, the first world got to were it is (over 200 odd years) by doing what it pleased to the environment. To bleat in 2018 (or any year) that “enough is enough” (at the current composition of C02 in the atmosphere) is deemed grossly (1) unfair and (2) disingenuous by the 1st world (against the “developing” world).
Emissions from Turkey, India and China are going to remain high for some time. The “contribution” just from those three countries amounts to 38% (call it 40%) of total emissions. Australia’s contribution is under 2% and (as I have remarked) the world is going to notice that (for sure)! There are some well-intentioned but clueless bastards about.
As an aside I’m awaiting an invitation by Crikey to write a mild technical paper (say yr12 – 1st year BSc level) on the topic; obviously making the case for global warming. I may even write it and send it to the editors and see what happens.
Thanks kh. I appreciate your response. I agree that the West has done what it wants for 200 years to destroy the planet and that we are seen as hypocrites for expecting other countries not to follow in our footsteps.
I am no fan of JBish, who also flew into a snit with the Kiwis – Ardern gave her a lesson in how to behave with dignity. I haven’t been a fan of hers since I saw how she went for Bernie Banton’s jugular when she was still a lawyer.
It makes total sense when you remind me Asians value consistency in relationships. It goes back to Confucian ethics and discipline? Or is that a flight of fantasy on my part?
Please do send your paper to Crikey editors. I hope they publish it.
kh, I submit an excellent article in the NewStatesman headlined “Making China great again: Xi Jinping’s troubled nationalist revival” by Isabel Hilton. It is recommended reading in BK’s “The Briefing” where he suggests articles of interest for the subscribers to C.
As it is a favourite sport of yours to criticise BK (I’ve been known to myself) I think you should give credit where credit is due. The article assesses two new books on China. “Red Flags” by economist George Magnus, and Francois Bougon “Inside the mind of Xi Jinping”.
Francois is listed as an Asian specialist , currently economics correspondent at Le Monde: formerly Beijing correspondent for Agence France-Presse (2005-2010) and assistant director of Le Monde’s international service until 2017.
Fair crack of the whip, kh. Thank you BK for submitting weekly “The Briefing”.
This is the only slot remaining.
Apologies for the tardy reply but I am no longer receiving advice on posted comments despite having ticked the box. Note also that Crikey is now banned, along with the ABC and the BBC, in China. I still receive the Worm etc but not advice on the posts. Crikey tells me that the advices are being sent but I am not receiving them. However, to your comments.
Do pick me up should I fail to give credit where it is due B.B. In my own defence I do acknowledge Mr K. when he writes a balanced article. In fact a number of his devotees had a teddy-chuck at his article on manufacturing (of late). For my part, it was one of Bernie’s better efforts.
As for The New Statesmen its obsession or disgust or paranoia (you choose) with what is perceives as “strong men” taking over the world is affecting its judgement. At a nudge the same could be said of Crikey. As you know, I am a tennis spectator (or actually a cricket spectator) and I try to “sit” above politics.
I (as you also know) harbour no sentimental assumptions for any world leader; least
of all Trump, Putin or Xi. However the Statesman’s glib remarks such as Xi “abandoning key pillars of the reform” by Deng Xiaoping require definitive examination if they are to be taken seriously. Otherwise I’m disinclined to take “them” seriously. As an aside keep an eye on http://www.japantimes.co.jp for articles on China. That country really does have a stake in which way the wind blows in regard to Asian foreign policy.
Crap such as “Xi tips his hat to Confucius, although, like Mao, Xi’s governing style owes more to the rival school of legalists, who argued that people need to be kept under control through harsh laws and punishments. Their rulers did not need to be loved, but feared.” merely discredits the author although, I accept that those who have not a clue as to Chinese politics are likely to be taken in.
Xi is considerably MORE popular over the course from 2012 to now than ANY PM of Oz or NZ over half (or twice) the intervening period. Hash punishment : jesus! What damnably silly thing to write! I’m in a taxi at least every other day and I work with intelligent and educated Chinese colleagues; male and female.
I recommend that the author of the said article bring a translator (or employ one on arrival) and do the same for a month or so. I could add that rather engage in “faith stuff” Xi has recommended that young people come to terms with Confucianism. Confucianism is taught in schools and to quite some extent in the better (number 1 to 5) schools.
Is any country perfect? Well what do you thnk? What does anyone think? Are needs of old people or young people being met in China? Absolutely and much more constructively than in Oz or NZ – I am VERY sorry so write. Are senior army officers doing porridge on a near monthly basis for appropriating and selling army stores and equipment? Absolutely! The Russian military, by comparison, has converted this practice into an art form.
These scribblers don’t care for a Leftist government with Righist perspectives having a major say in world affairs. If Trump has been out-manipulated and out-witted by Asia then so has Europe. Major investment activity is occurring in Norway (1,000 words here at least) – to identify one country in the region – AND those investments has dislodged some former and now very unhappy players when the Chinese came to the table with a superior deal.
That the Trumps, Putins and Xis and Marcon’s and add Brazil (ref. Mr R’s indulgence of idiocy) etc. are obtaining the upper hand and the Left, wallowing in is own vomit, with nowhere to go is what is boring up the left nostril of these would-be do-gooders.
Un-fucking the world is a major enterprise B.B. but being sentimental causes one to begin on the wrong foot.
; ) I meant Oz govt should be more grateful to China for buying so many unneeded mining products ..& taking the recycled rubbish away, etc .. as opposed to turning on the old “diabolical orientals” insidious-soft-power talk & paranoia.
I just wish I thought the LNP had some more brain power at its disposal. These ones seem incapable of imagining outcomes contrary to their own fantasies