Spend any time on the hustings for the Wentworth byelection and one thing becomes clear: the voters have well and truly made up their minds. Opinion polls indicate that only 2% of the electorate is still undecided, borne out by the behaviour of the voters I saw on Thursday.
At the Waverley pre-polling station with Dr Kerryn Phelps, I spotted many people waving away the how-to-votes on the way in, saying “I know how I’m voting.” Phelps, the independent who is widely tipped to win the seat, said this has been a common reaction this week. “People go past and just give a thumbs-up or a smile. They’re not stopping to discuss issues.”
Wentworth has always been held by the Liberal Party and if it loses the seat at Saturday’s byelection, this will be the end of Morrison’s one-seat majority in Parliament.
Asked about her own polling, Phelps laughs, saying that as polls cost $14,000 each, she can’t afford it. What the campaign does have is bodies — I counted twice as many Phelps volunteers as the Liberals.
Former NSW MP Paul Pearce was there handing out how-to-votes for the very good Labor candidate, Tim Murray. An economist, Murray lived in China for 20 years and speaks fluent Mandarin; he’s like Kevin Rudd with a personality.
However, Labor is running a low-key campaign because it knows it can’t win and needs to come third so that the preferences flow up to Phelps, pushing her above the Liberals.
Independent candidate, former banker Licia Heath has run an excellent campaign focused on the need for a new public high school, better homelessness support and a national anti-corruption commission. She is one to watch in the future.
Speaking to the Wentworth voters at a series of events this week, many seemed absolutely ropable about the brutal removal of former member Malcolm Turnbull by the party’s right-wing faction.
The residents of one of Sydney’s most educated and most progressive electorates are incandescent with fury that their man was ousted by what they perceive as a happy-clapper from the Shire. Many people told me that they would be not be voting Liberal for the first time in their lives.
One of party’s biggest problems is that up until the byelection, Sharma had lived in Turramurra in Sydney’s upper North Shore; he is seen as a “blow-in” who doesn’t belong. The former diplomat has avoided many of the community debates, but on Tuesday night went to a candidates’ forum organised by the NSW Jewish Board of Deputies.
It’s thought that he was pre-selected — reportedly at the behest of John Howard — because his former ambassadorship to Israel would attract Wentworth’s so-called Jewish vote (about 13% of the electorate). But the reactions of the 300-strong audience at the forum showed up my preconceptions about the Jewish community and how they vote.
Most of the attendees appeared to be cynical about Morrison’s proposal to move the embassy to Jerusalem, regarding it as a political stunt. When Phelps said it was a “politically motivated decision” that “should not have been raised in the context of a byelection for the purpose of trying to gain support for a Liberal candidate,” she was loudly applauded.
Phelps converted to Judaism when she met her partner, Jackie Stricker-Phelps, 20 years ago. Yesterday, she told me that the Jewish community trusts her because she is an active member and in fact got married in January at Woollahra’s Temple Emanuel when marriage equality became legal.
The Liberals know that Phelps is attracting strong support from the gay community and the Jewish community and are running the line that voting for her promotes “instability” — something which just makes her laugh, incredulously.
After Tuesday’s debate, I debriefed with a friend at the Woollahra Hotel, known by the locals as “Jurassic Park”. We agreed that the voters of Wentworth are lucky — most of us are forced to choose between the one-time mayor of Porpoise Spit and some IPA reject who’s never had a real job. But many of these political candidates reflect the Wentworth voters — tolerant, inclusive and focused on the bigger picture. Scott Morrison should be worried.
Does Kerryn Phelps have what it takes to win? Write to boss@crikey.com.au and let us know.
Tim Murray’s got the perfect no-hope candidates job here. He gets to hone his hustings skills in what everybody knows to be an unwinnable apprenticeship role, and can then either contest a winnable marginal or get pre-selected for a safe ALP seat, or even slide in through the Senate at some stage in the next few years. Either way, he’ll make an excellent addition to the ALP parliamentary team when his time comes.
Yes I totally agree. Regardless of party affiliation, I’d be happy to have someone like Tim representing me in Parliament.
Yes its the great shame of our “world’s best democracy” that genuinely talented candidates get forgotten in a by-election circus such as this, then subsequently have to fawn to ignorant party hacks to get a shoe in. And no apparent chhange in sight.
sad but true. Hopefully Phelps’ likely win will activate a few more good independents.
Wentworth’s constituents are generally better educated than most electorates. But it remains to be seen how smart they actually are.
We will find out by tomorrow afternoon..
“most of us are forced to choose between the one-time mayor of Porpoise Spit and some IPA reject who’s never had a real job.”
ROTFL Damn you Margot. Another keyboard has just expired under a spray of chardonnay. 🙂
Ha!
Gotta love it when the Liberals engage in their own class wars – where they’d rather vote for anyone but ‘a happy clapper from the Shire’
Being from Melbourne , I’m not entirely sure where the ‘Shire’ is, but I gather it’s not a term of endearment from the Wentworth electorate.
It is their conundrum.
Think of that TV hit of the 90s, “Sylvania Waters” but without the style, good taste or smarts.
Oh dear.
It’s actually a beautiful spot with many wonderful residents but the Australia Day riots and Sylvania Waters have both fuelled the anti-Shire rhetoric and that perception can be hard to shift.
It is a different sort of place to Balmain.
They wash their own face in the Shire…apparently.
I just hope whoever wins brings this whole shit show of a government down. Not a big fan of Shorten but at least he seems like a plodding, competent guy. He also has a lot of good, thoughtful people around him. The mess that is this government is now a joke. The IPCC report comes out with alarming climate scenarios and we have a Minister unable to talk climate science in public and moving an embassy seems to be the priority. Wehave children dying in our camps and the doctor is expelled, but the senate is voting about how superior it is to be white. Enough!!!
I don’t think you are alone!