What do the country folk of Wagga and the eastern suburbs sophisticates of Wentworth have in common? Not, you might think, that much, except that both signal a new era of independent threat to conservatives. The good burghers of Wagga showed that just over a month ago when they elected local independent Joe McGirr to replace the disgraced state Liberal MP Daryl Maguire, off a 28% swing against Gladys Berejiklian’s government. That was in the aftermath of the knifing of Malcolm Turnbull.
There won’t be a 28% swing against Dave Sharma tomorrow in Wentworth. But there “only” has to be an 18% swing for him to lose. Sharma, who parachuted into the seat from the North Shore, has done himself no favours by campaigning as though he’s entitled to the seat, rather than having to earn it (remember that “Sharma is the Liberal Obama” garbage peddled by Fairfax a few weeks back?). But this normally wouldn’t count against him in such a blue-ribbon Liberal seat. The problem is well above Sharma’s pay grade: such is voter disgust at the self-indulgence and right-wing leanings of the current Liberal Party, a centrist, well-known and well-regarded local can pose a major threat to them.
That means the cash-strapped Liberals, now without their major fundraiser and donor in Malcolm Turnbull, face the prospect of independent insurgencies in metropolitan as well as regional seats that should have required little in the way of attention and resources in next year’s election. If Julie Bishop leaves politics, don’t discount her loss either — she’s a ferocious campaigner prepared to go anywhere, anytime across the country for Liberal candidates. That will all leave less money and drawcards for marginal seats that have to be protected against Labor’s strong ground game.
Some of those independent-versus-Liberals contests will be particularly pointed: if Tony Abbott contests the next election, expect one in Warringah, one that might well topple a man widely reviled within his own party.
The Liberal hope would have been that after nearly two months, Wentworth voters would have got over the betrayal of Turnbull and be ready to move on. To make that sure that didn’t happen, they decided to end the campaign with the worst week any government has had for many years, combining (in the most charitable estimation) spectacular incompetence, panicked misjudgment, arrant stupidity, diplomatic bungling, and the Nationals deciding there hadn’t been a leadership blow-up for at least five minutes so it was time to have another one.
If Kerryn Phelps was an outside chance last weekend, she got a lot more competitive as each disastrous day went by for the Liberals this week, and must have looked a lot more attractive to the disgruntled Liberal voters who will likely form the basis of her support.
The Wentworth campaign began with Scott Morrison getting rebuffed by his own party when they opted for Sharma over a female candidate. It may yet end with an altogether worse humiliation. But Phelps is unlikely to be the last independent to turn a safe Coalition seat into a nailbiter.
Amazingly, the Coalition seems somewhat surprised that they’ve found themselves in this position.
It’s almost for them, as if they haven’t on an almost monthly basis since the 2014 budget, totally screwed up the job of Governing and aped the worst aspects of the chaos of the RGR years. Not to be undone though, they’ve gone much further in their misadventures than even Rudd could have concocted.
The employment figures and the general economic outlook seems to be immune to the performance of this awful mob, which needs to be reflected on when Morrison claims some credit at election time.
One wonders how good the employment figures & general economic outlook might have been if these amateurs hadn’t been at the helm for 5 years.
If anything has proven the extent to which our economy depends on global economic trends more than government action, at least since Keating’s reforms, truly the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government has done so.
Good surface economic numbers but even they can’t manage to conjure up an explanation of what they did to contribute to it; the inference must be that the good numbers are independent of anthing they’ve done.
Labor has held them back from the budget sabotage that the big business tax cuts would have been.
Good surface numbers aside, the Libs have caused serious economic harm to those not in the upper tax brackets. So a bit like Trump, they’ve been ridiculous but effective.
There’s ample time for another LNP snafu to cement their demise. It seems there is something new coming to light each day from this bunch of bunnglers.
“… spectacular incompetence, panicked misjudgment, arrant stupidity, diplomatic bungling…”
Normally such adjectves would seem oberblown, but in the context of this week they almost seem restrained. We have to do something to get uber-incompetent political careerists out of the system. They have no idea how to manage anything beyond absurd political intrigues.
I agree. And that is confined only to the disasters of this sitting week – which were plentiful enough and came thick and fast.
There was also the week before. The latest IPCC report landed with a sturdy thud that the government simply ignored or lied about. In Wentworth issues such as climate change matter to voters who are able to see beyond next week. And John Hewson, who was a previous member for Wentworth, was out and about urging everyone to vote against the Libs on this issue alone.
I am 77 and cannot recall a worse political fortnight in Australian political life.
Let’s hope you’re right, and that it also applies to safe and lazy alp seats.
Poor old Sharma, continuing the diplomatic tradition of being unable or unwilling to say anything that doesn’t tow the party line. Why would anyone vote for someone who is probably thoughtful but won’t use it.
With the lobe, we won’t meet Paris targets, we are becoming increasingly intolerant and cruel towards people less fortunate and there’s absolutely no coherent plan. Why support that?
That sound you hear are the chickens coming home to roost.
The last general election where the LNP scrapped in with a single seat majority should have been a massive wake-up call to dump the hard right rump together with their crazy policies. Instead they doubled down on embracing carbon and kicking gays.
LNP, prepare to meet reality tomorrow. Make a good impression upon it, don’t forget to have a shower and iron your shirt.
And be sure to wear clean underpants for when that bus hits.