Donald Trump faces a whole new situation in the wake of the US midterm elections, with the Democrats retaking the House of Representatives, picking up seven governorships, and a number of state assemblies, and winning some important ballot initiatives on voting.
The Republicans’ only good news was a pick-up of enough seats to retain control of the Senate, in a year when a third of Senate seats are up for election, included about 10 marginal Democrat seats. Even here they had less success than they might, with the Democrats Jon Tester holding in Republican Montana, despite a huge effort to dislodge him.
What does it all mean? Well, obviously, to take the House without the Senate leaves the Democrats short of contestatory power. They can originate a progressive budget, but they can’t get it through the Senate; it has to be taken to “reconciliation”. Ditto on laws regarding campaign finance, immigration, the works.
What they can do is take over the chairmanship of House committees, majority fill them, and steer the legislative process from there. As numerous commentators have noted, Trump, from his remarks, has not yet twigged to that. A figurehead president, utterly out of his depth, who has rubber-stamped a traditional Republican agenda in exchange for his tariffs program, Trump will now be exposed to the grizzled political professionals, who know the system backwards.
But that is not without its hazards for the Democrats. Having one house, and being seen publicly to win it, is like having half a yacht, really. There’s no chance of a bold and declarative program you can own. What they do achieve for their mass of voters, can have the credit swiped by Trump — and if he’s good at anything, he’s good at that. Furthermore, if they act in a civic spirit and mitigate Trump’s worst excesses, they will make his administration less odious come 2020.
What they can do is go after Trump the man. But that is fraught with hazard, too, as the recent confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh demonstrated. Incoming speaker (i.e. leader of the opposition) Nancy Pelosi has already ruled out an impeachment drive. There is wariness about getting too involved with the Russia probe, which turns many independent voters off. There is talk of getting and exposing Trump’s tax returns. All of these will be demanded by political Democrats, their base, and failure to do it will be taken as a sign of selling out afresh. But it will enable Trump to label the Democrat-led House as the “swamp” refilled, up to its old tricks.
Within the Democrats, there will be tensions too, many of them productive. The midterms have seen the election of a new left within the Democrats – from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is openly associated with the Democratic Socialists of America; young Muslim women Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib in Minnesota; and reps at federal and statehouse level from the “Our Revolution” list — a left group formed around the 2016 Bernie Sanders campaign.
The test for the Democrats will come if these new figures reorganise the left caucus in the party; or organise a specifically socialist caucus, to put some heat on the party’s centre. That “centre” includes a brace of new members from places like Oklahoma, new members from the non-Latino parts of Texas, and ex-Republicans such as Charlie Crist, all of whom could revive the “blue dog” caucus — Democrats elected in Republican states — who would resist, and vote against, a great deal of progressive legislation. As with Obama’s House majority 2008-2010, a majority ain’t a majority.
But it’s a good-news election, and there’s no point being too preemptively pessimistic about it. Of particular importance is the governorship and statehouses the Democrats have taken back — after a decade or more in which they just let their grassroots organisations die through poor representation, allowing the Republicans to take them over — and to gerrymander the congressional district maps.
For the Dems — who weren’t really counting on a resurgence at this level until 2022-2024 — Trump has been a godsend, allowing them to retake statehouses two years before the 2020 census, which will be used for any redistributions that might occur. Maybe they will try and introduce fair distribution — some states such as Iowa have it — and cement it in, but don’t hold your breath.
Also of crucial, crucial importance, was ballot measure four in Florida, which has readmitted 1.4 million felons — i.e. black men and women caught with an unregistered car twice, or a joint once — to the voter rolls. Given the narrow margins, and Florida’s key role as a narrow-victory swing state, that suddenly, vastly improved the Democrats chances in 2020.
But what might be focusing Republicans’ minds more than anything is a Democrat loss — that of Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke who came within 3% of knocking off oleaginous man-size jelly baby Ted Cruz in Texas. Texas has been trending towards the centre for years, because of Latinx population growth. But now, Houston has become a magnet for knowledge industries and the people who run them, changing the whole culture of the city. This squeeze makes more likely the holy grail for the Democrats — turning Texas blue, or at least marginal. Texas is the last safe electoral college state the Republicans have to contest the Democrats’ New York and California. If that goes, they’re in a lot of trouble indeed.
That said, if anyone can stuff this windfall up, it’s the Democrats. In the great global contest of progressive parties that identify so greatly with the policies of their opponents, they can barely oppose them, they’re right up there with the ALP. But yeah, it’s a whole new situation…
‘getting and exposing Trump’s tax returns….. will enable Trump to label the Democrat-led House as the “swamp” refilled, up to its old tricks.’
This particular trick isn’t old because no party has had to resort to it previously. All US presidents made their tax returns available to scrutiny, Trump is the exception. As the adage goes: nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
Such irony in the fact that Trump badgered a previous president to unnecessarily reveal a birth certificate but is curiously precious about tabling his own paperwork.
zut alors,
I don’t wish to be offensive, but do we really need Trump’s tax returns to work out that he is an incompetent, narcissistic moron. The problem we have is because the Democrats gave up working for the poor and middle class of America, thanks to Bill and Hilary, people turned to a demagogue who stuck it up the people who have let them down.
Hilary wanted Trump as her opponent because she thought he was a pushover. The problem she had was Bill and Obama. If they hadn’t deserted the people who suffered as a consequence of the de-industrialization of the US, Trump wouldn’t have had any oxygen.
Trump summed her up exactly; she is a liar. That doesn’t reflect any particular intelligence on his part. All of the people who suffered under NAFTA, suffered through the dismantling of welfare and suffered the narcotic catastrophe and who generally have a negative net worth were able to work it out without any help from the political elite.
Think of Trump as a place-holder.
Do you really want Pence in charge?
Go the bastard, don’t be squeamish. Stick the boot into his big distended belly like he does to all opponents. Once the mob starts laughing at him he’s stuffed.
“There’s no chance of a bold and declarative program you can own.”
Too right there’s not. And if the Democrats had won both houses there still wouldn’t have been any such bold and declarative programs.
Remember “Hope and Change” from Obama. Well, there may have been some hope, but there wasn’t any change. If the GFC wasn’t the opportunity to take on bold and declarative programs I don’t know of any better ones. He bailed out Wall Street with his nasty little mate Geitner, but Main street got nothing.
His assault on civil liberties was worse than Junior’s and his “Pivot to Asia” is going to produce a new cold and possibly very hot war.
The Democrats once had some allegiance to the working class and poor. They have moved so far to the right they have pushed the Republicans to virtual insanity. Democratic allegiance now is to the professional classes, lawyers, bankers, economists and engineers and the 0.1% of Americans that own the world who pay for their campaigns.
Decaying civilizations vomit up demagogues like Trump. Trump is a sideshow. Whilst he diverts attention from realpolitik, his minions are dismantling every part of US civil society that they can get their hands on. The EPA, public education climate change etc, etc.
The US is now in the hands of the corporate elites, all of whom control large, closed corporate totalitarian organizations and who also own the politicians in the US and who will certainly expect to be rewarded with a complete absence of “bold and declarative programs” This what they paid for when the bought the politicians who inhabit Washington and the capitals of all of the states.
When things unravel far enough for Trump and the Republicans, they will attack Iran. The test for the Democrats will be whether they oppose such an attack. If they do not oppose such an attack the US is a doomed empire and will rapidly disintegrate. I bet you the Democrats will be part of the cheer squad for war as they were for Afghanistan and Iraq.
The question you have to ask yourselves is why aren’t the Democrats forcefully opposing Trump’s dismantling of the Iran treaty right now. Their hero Obama constructed it and one of the most lethal ratbags of the neo-cons, Bolton the Bastard, with his nasty mate Popeo is unraveling it. They are waging economic warfare on Iran, a poor country that has never attacked anyone since poor old Mossadegh tried to kick the British Petroleum out. Have you noticed how the US only goes to war with countries that are not able to defend themselves? Kim Jong Ung has figured it out even if you can’t.
Don’t pin your hope on the Democrats. The Clintons destroyed them late last century and they have never recovered. And don’t pin your hopes on Sanders, he backed the Clinton’s even when they shafted him because he wants a seat at the Government table no matter how corrupt the rest of the diners are.
No fucking moral compass whatsoever.
It is very sad that, were one to change Democrat/Republican to Labor/LNP (and Clinton to HawKeating), your comment could be about this country. Including the gungho for foreign warmongering.
Spot on!
Spot on the pair of you,sadly.
Most of Trump’s vandalism has been achieved thru executive order (either new or rescinded) or via appointment of the ethically challenged to Cabinet and elsewhere (again new regulations or demolition of existing ones) – relatively bugger all via legislation, tax cuts excepted.
But really, for Trump to claim these mid-terms as a victory? Another win like this and he’ll be out on his well padded arse. The skid marks will be on the outside for a change.
I am going to use my newly acquired phrase : “are you serious”
Firstly, I do not recall the author being so chirpy when the House AND the Senate went the other way when Obama
was President but never mind. As to “difference” there is considerable difference across Republican Congressmen.
Take a peek at their web sites or on Y.Tube. The “new blood” for the Democrats is not a big deal.
However the game hasn’t changed. The Democrats are still anti Bernie and all he represents. A few like-minded
CongressPersons will not make a difference. In point of fact the tensions within the Democrats are rather debilitating
for the Democrats.
As for imprisonment for petty offences Obama had the opportunity (early in his term) to clean this matter up. In fact he
had (i.e. announced) a 12 point plan (a bit like Jordan’s – but different). It is disingenuous of you to imply that this
matter is solely a Republican effect. The matter has been around for tens of decades.
What is new is that The Guardian (et al) will have to scrape the egg of its collective face and write something sensible
about Trump. I’m no fan but the incessant undermining (to be fair Hillary would have incurred the same flack) is embarrassing
and certainly not newsworthy.
As to predictions, Trump will (1) certainly run his full term (short if snatching it in office), (2) is conceivable that he
will get a 2nd term and (3) will not be impeached. Slab anyone?
Almost forgot. Yes, the larger and richer (stronger economy) States are blue or at least purplish. On the other hand, as with
Oz, governments have been elected when, numerically, the other side received the majority of the votes. To this end the Democrats
have been the beneficiaries – in the main. However, EACH state gets to elect two Senators irrespective of size/population/economy
and, for now, that is the real test. Trump held, nay improved upon, the Senate!
Clinton’s Omnibus crime bill was responsible for the majority of the mass imprisonment of black America. Apparently, Hilary reckons Bill is sorry about it now like he was for stuffing up Haiti’s agriculture and a hundred other things he did to get corporate money and to buy votes.
By winning the Reps, the Dems have given the Drumpfster the perfect rant to cover every failure & fuk-up for the next two years – “they won’t let me do good stuff for you!”.
Unfortunately the Benighted States would have been a far greater danger to the rest of the world had la Klingon won.
At least his blatant idiocy is “a clear & present danger” of which none may claim ignorance.