Saturday’s result in Victoria was in many ways a reverse image of the last big surprise a state election turned up in that state, namely the defeat of Jeff Kennett’s government in 1999.
On that occasion, a Coalition government was driven to a shock defeat by an unforeseen trend in the regions; this time, a Labor government has enjoyed an unexpected landslide on the back of a swing no one saw coming in Melbourne.
The only thread common to both was victory for Labor – and it’s interesting to note that Labor tends to be the beneficiary of election night surprises in Australia, and has been since at least Paul Keating’s re-election in 1993.
The swing in Melbourne of around 6% was well beyond even the most optimistic of Labor’s pre-elections assessments, delivering the normally conservative eastern suburbs seats of Box Hill, Ringwood, Mount Waverley and Burwood.
The only consolation for the Liberals was that it wasn’t as bad as it looked on the night, when the deepest of deep blue-ribbon seats such as Brighton, Sandringham and Hawthorn appeared to be on the chopping block.
It turned out that well-heeled voters in these inner urban areas had flocked en masse to the pre-poll voting centres, casting votes for the Liberals that saved the day for them when added to the count later in the evening.
Interestingly, this was not replicated further out in the suburbs — the “sandbelt” seats of Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston, which held their accustomed place on “seats to watch” lists right to the last, produced stunning 10% swings to Labor both at pre-polling and on election day.
With the wisdom of hindsight, Labor’s successes here are being interpreted as an endorsement of the government’s public infrastructure priorities, specifically the removal of level crossings along the electorally sensitive Frankston line.
Conversely, the election played according to script in regional Victoria, where Labor is struggling to reel in the highly marginal Liberal seat of Ripon, and the bigger danger to the conservatives proved to be from independents.
In many ways, the widening of the urban-rural electoral divide occasioned by the Labor swing in Melbourne can be seen as a sign of the times.
Earlier this month, the Democrats owed many of their best results in the US mid-term elections to affluent urban voters who traditionally voted Republican for economic reasons.
Even in the direct absence of the Donald Trump factor, these voters’ Melburnian counterparts found plenty to react against in an Australian conservative movement that has experienced a rush of blood to its head in response to the populist turn in global politics.
Some of this was home-grown – the Liberal opposition clearly overplayed its hand on law and order, and state president Michael Kroger rightly features as a villain of the piece for his harnessing of conservative forces to assert his dominance over the state party organisation.
But for all the platitudes federal Liberals offered over the weekend about an election “decided on state issues”, the brand damage that made this more than just a normal defeat was unmistakeably the work of politicians in Canberra.
As luck would have it, a lot of the worst results corresponded with the electorates of federal MPs who helped bring the party to its present state by backing Peter Dutton’s bid for the leadership.
If Saturday’s swings are replicated federally, Duttonite casualties will certainly include Michael Sukkar in Deakin (where Ringwood was lost with a swing of 7.7%) and Jason Wood in La Trobe (covering the business end of Bass, gained by Labor on a 6.9% swing) — and perhaps even Greg Hunt in Flinders, whose margin is inside the 8.6% swing that has the Liberals on the brink of an unprecedented defeat in the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean.
NSW will be interesting. Gladys is seen as a reasonably safe pair of hands who is doing at least some of the infrastructure type stuff, although not as well or welcomed, that Andrews is doing. For the ALP Foley has been a disaster since long before his final indiscretion.
I’m not expecting an ALP victory in NSW but I’d be very pleased to be wrong.
I don’t think the impact of the level crossing project should be overlooked. It wasn’t just the Frankston line that had level crossings removed.
And it’s not just that the removal of level crossings has had a beneficial and highly visible impact on people’s lives in Melbourne. It’s also that, finally, we seem to have a government that is actually capable of getting things done – so that when Andrews promised further infrastructure projects, people believed him.
By contrast, how long has it been since we have seen anything but crushing negativity coming out of the Liberal Party? From the incessant destruction of Abbott, to the ideologically-driven dismantling of a successful carbon tax, to buggering up the NBN and resistance to same sex marriage. The knifing of Turnbull was the same negativity, only this time turned inward. Just to drive the message home, the Victorian branch of the Liberal party chose to run a campaign of more of the same, with their core message being based on racist fear-mongering. No vision of a better Victoria anywhere to be seen. Absolutely disgusting! No wonder people rejected them.
Well said Graeski. Guy and cohorts spent virtually the whole campaign bad mouthing Labor and very little time promoting their own positive policies, such as they were. With an appaling track record in service delivery, anti progressive posturing and down right lies at both State and Federal levels, hopefully the LNP will be put to the sword soon.
Very much so.
You had Liberal billboards blaring “end traffic chaos” over roads filled with people enjoying their level-crossing free experience. I reckon those billboards were doing the Liberals actual damage.
William, would be interested in your take on why the polls seemed to get this so wrong. It seems to be way outside the margin of error.
The only hope for Liberals in the Federal election is that many Victorian voters have vented their spleen in the State election. However it is a vain hope, the Danslide was caused by many issues, but the turmoil in Canberra and toxicity of leading lights like Dutton and Abbott will not be forgotten either here or nationally come next May.
It is to be hoped that should NSW become Labor it doesn’t make people reluctant to have Labor in 4 states, 2Territories + Feds.
It would meet if the only benighted region were the Merkin Isle but for the shocking anomaly, as referenced in earlier threads, of that bastion of intelligence, light & progressive thought, SA.
I was thinking the same thing AR. For the good of the country, and the fact that the ALP hasn’t done enough time in the NSW political wilderness to atone for their previous sins, I’m hoping that Gladys JUST makes it back into power next March.