Russia’s firing on and then seizing three Ukrainian navy vessels attempting to pass through the Kerch Straits has raised fears of direct confrontation between the two countries, following Russia’s 2014 intervention in the separation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The blocking of Ukrainian naval access to the Sea of Azov has sparked strong protests in Kiev and led the Ukrainian government to consider imposing martial law.
Two small Ukrainian navy craft and a tug were attempting to pass through the Kerch Straits, which link the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, when they were fired upon, rammed and then seized by the Russian FSB border guard ships. Six sailors were wounded. To further make the point, Russia placed a tanker across the Straits, underneath a bridge between Crimea and the Russian mainland that was only opened in May this year.
Ukraine has called the action “openly aggressive” while Russia has claimed the three Ukrainian ships were illegally crossing through Russian waters and deliberately provoking a conflict. Russia has claimed the Kerch Straits since annexing Crimea.
By blocking access to the Sea of Azov, Russia has not only restricted the Ukraine navy’s freedom of navigation but effectively cut off access to around half of the Ukrainian coast still under Ukrainian control, closing sea access to the major Ukrainian port of Mariupol. Russia says the Straits are now open to civilian shipping.
The Russian closure of the Kerch Straits appears to be in support of eastern Ukraine, which for the past four years has been waging a separatist war against the Kiev government. Russia has acknowledged providing material support to the eastern Ukrainian separatists in the predominantly Russian speaking part of Ukraine.
While it was clear that Russia wanted to annex Crimea, principally for strategic reasons, its support for the war in eastern Ukraine does not appear to be aimed at acquiring further territory. Rather, the eastern Ukraine conflict is to remind Ukraine of who is the dominant regional power and ensuring that Ukrainian politicians do not contemplate reclaiming Crimea.
As a Russian sideshow, the war for separation in eastern Ukraine has not been traveling well for its partisans. Apart from receiving a high level of direct Russian support, and what is said to be more than 30,0000 Russian troops, the territory claimed by the separatists is divided, with Ukrainian troops holding its western half and Russian-backed troops the eastern half.
The front line in the impoverished Donets coal region has become static trench warfare, though without the suicidal frontal assaults of the kind a century ago. For the separatist eastern Ukrainians, however, daily life is one of considerably more hardship than for those in Kiev, for whom the war now rarely makes the front pages of newspapers.
The Kiev government, too, has reclassified the conflict away from being “anti-terrorist” to a “joint forces operation”. In doing so, they have placed full responsibility for the war at the feet of Moscow.
The blocking of the Kerch Straits, then, is intended to send a message to Kiev that it should not begin to feel too comfortable about the eastern Ukraine stalemate. It says that the Sea of Azov is, for all practical purposes, now a Russian lake.
Loss of sea access to Mariupol will not have a major impact on Ukraine’s ability to conduct war against the separatists, given it still has accessible ports at Odesa and elsewhere for international trade. Ukraine can also ship personnel and equipment across land to the six-hour distant battlefields.
But in this war, gestures are almost as important as military actions. That is why Russian and Russian-sympathetic cars have blocked the mainland road routes out of Ukraine; they don’t mean much in the grand scheme, but do present a continuing annoyance, and a reminder.
The closing of the Sea of Azov at will has, therefore, sent Ukraine a message of Russia’s continuing serious intent. Any thought that there might be a resolution to the eastern Ukraine war, which has killed more than 10,000 and displaced 2 million more, remains as least as far away now as it did when hostilities broke out four years ago.
Damien Kingsbury is Deakin University’s Professor of International Politics.
And, has created yet another ‘manufactured’ crisis for ‘Putin the redeemer’ to deal with, thus reinforcing in the eyes of Russians his God-like status and the country’s continued reliance upon him to thwart external threats to the motherland.
Neither you, Richard, nor Kingsbury seem to have cottoned to why Poroshenko might have fancied an opportunity to impose martial law – seen any polls reflecting his chances of being re-elected?
Further, even a cursory examination of the relevant international laws and conventions reveals the Russians were well within their rights to do as they did – you do know the Ukraine vessels crossed from international waters into Russian territorial waters, were repeatedly warned, and chose to ignore the warnings?
If you try real hard, you can find translations of the statements made by the Ukraine sailors who were on board.
Even further, from the time the bridge to Crimea was opened earlier this year, there have been repeated calls, from Kiev to Washington (try the Washington Examiner) for the Crimean bridge to be blown up.
The sooner more people realise Ukraine is in the hands of people who still fancy the ideas of one the great Hitler fans from WWII, Stepan Bandera, the better off and safer the whole world will be.
Kingsbury writes about the war on the Donbass as if it’s Ukraine liberal democrats fighting Putin’s fan base.
Again, try finding references to who is actually fighting for Kiev – I suggest searching for a recent article written by a fantastic (US) journalist, Max Blumenthal.
Long story short, Ukraine is a real live neo-Nazi dominated outfit, so much so that the FBI have recently used evidence of Ukraine neo-Nazis training and collaborating with like minded US ‘citizens’ to undermine US ‘democracy’, on US soil.
Apparently they had such a hoot at celebrations of Hitler’s birthday in Ukraine, they decided they’d all benefit for further joint ventures.
You can even find former ADF servicemen of like mind who have travelled to Ukraine to ‘kill Russians’ for money – the ABC did.
I hold out little hope of Kingsbury ever purchasing a wider lens, and that’s a pity for all who think Crikey is any chop at providing coverage of anything beyond these shores.
You better have a damn good reason for putting the post above in ‘awaiting moderation’.
No reasonable explanation, and there will be no further subscriptions from me.
No response, and I will demand my money back for the current subscription.
I for one have no illusions about Kingsbury. He is a classical shill. I don’t know why Crikey keep him on. There are far more credible commentators available, of which I agree Max Blumenthal is one. Here is his article which is the one I assume you are referring to:
https://consortiumnews.com/2018/11/17/blowback-us-funded-ukraine-neo-nazis-mentor-us-white-supremacists/
You are very dishonest here in not referring to the 2003 treaty which the Ukraine is in violation of (not informing Russian authorities of their ships attempted passage); and also in not providing reasons the Ukrainian gov has for provoking an incident (including a fraught election coming up).
Stephen, credible media reporting suggests both sides claim different positions on the ‘notification’ issue. Furthermore, how long does it take to position a ship across the navigation passage under the bridge and to deploy ‘special forces’ onto navy vessels to effect the capture, if you have no notification of the intentions of the ‘offending’ vessels? So, two sides, two stories. I guess we have to make choices as to whom to believe – the side who initially deployed ‘little green men’ to help ‘liberate’ eastern Ukraine or the side with inferior forces who struggle to contain a superior force and who can ill-afford the loss of any naval assets?
As David Thompson points out above, you and Damien Kingsbury slide over the fact that the side you ‘choose to believe’ is dominated by out-and-out fascists. And what does the ‘inferior force’ point have to do with it? I’m sure Poroshenko is quite willing to sacrifice a few ‘pawns’ (Ukrainian sailors and boats) to manufacture another excuse for NATO intervention on his behalf, as well as impose martial law.
So true, Stephen, and when it comes to who might be worthy of sacrifice, ‘Poro’ tends to nod when given advice (you’d never guess from where!).
When Victoria Nuland was credited with ‘engineering’ the coup in Ukraine, she rode side by side with a chap named Geoffrey Pyatt, at the time the US ambassador to Ukraine (e.g. he was on the other end of the phone when Nuland – who is married to arch neo-con Robert Kagan, BTW – said “Yats is our guy”.
And, guess where Pyatt is now ‘posted’?
Greece. I invite you to come to grips with the recent and unfolding split in the Orthodox church.
The Greeks have been thoroughly conned by Tsipras – a dead set fraud. 80% of Greeks – in Greece – are rusted on to Orthodoxy. Pyatt has ensured a lot of those older already massively disenfranchised Greeks will die very, very sad.
Atheist personally, but talking to some Greeks on Satdee night, particularly ones with older parents, this is beyond fundamental evil.
Quite right Stephen. I referred to some of these matters in a comment below, which as of 11 PM EST Tuesday is still “awaiting moderation”. It will hopefully clear tomorrow morning, but meanwhile, two items I discussed. The first being the official US State Department report on the meeting in Kiev on 16 November 2018 between Mike Pompeo and his Ukrainian counterparts which can be read here:
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/11/287421.htm
In part it proposes a “…robust UN-mandated international security force in the areas of Donbas controlled by Russia, ….., would create the necessary security conditions for the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements.” A NATO war against Russia it seems is now official policy.
To achieve this a Tonkin Gulf-style false flag is needed, and nine days later our Porky steps in and sends two small gunboats and a tug to provoke Russia in the Kerch Strait. On his own initiative, of course (cynicism).
The second point is that Russian language news report that most of the sailors arrested after the confrontation were “green youths” who were in a “state of shock” and had no idea of what they were doing. In other words, deliberate “sacrificial victims” sent into harms way who if they had been killed would have been glorified as “martyrs”. So the “pawns” that you propose have already been set up.
For five years now I have been cynically calling Kiev “Saigon on the Dnieper”, for I’ve seen the pattern before.
My understanding is that the neo fascist regime in Ukraine is doing very badly in the polls, with an election only two months away. For unknown reasons they dispatched their three warships to pass through agreed Russian territory at short notice without the correct internationally recognised paperwork. The Russian coast guard efficiently sorted out the problems, and now the Ukraine strongman is going to impose three months of martial law on his own population.
And Nikki Haley of the govt that’s currently shooting at their own border encroaches has said bad things about the Russian action.
Can’t understand why everyone keeps blaming Putin. I mean, it’s not like the guy ever killed anyone.
Bit simplistic, don’t you think?
You might like to rack up the stats about who have been the champs of killing ‘the other’ since WWII.
A hint: it ain’t Russia, and it ain’t Putin – remember Maddy, and I do mean Maddy, Albright, Bubba Clinton’s who, when asked about the cost of the deaths of 500K Iraqis from Bubba’s and the West’s sanctions in the ’90’s, said she ‘thought’ it was “WORTH IT”.
Libya? Afghanistan for 17 years, continuously? YEMEN (where ex-Australian ADF are running the UAE military, and have recently been referred to the International Criminal Court by a French law firm, for committing War Crimes – who would have thought it – mercenaries committing war crimes?? Australian mercenaries committing war crimes?? Shocking innit?)
Over 800 American bases on foreign soil around the world, the ME is both a shambles, and a toxic dump (e.g. depleted uranium), and Russians have had SFA to do with any of it.
Like Kingsbury, you need a wider lens, Oldie (as am I). Although, any lens you might choose to acquire is unlikely to be funded similarly to Kingsbury’s.
Something else for free – the greatest diplomat of modern times is Sergey ‘Yoda’ Lavrov – and everyone knows it. Find yourself what he had to say about this farce, and understand who is running this show.
The likes of Nicky Haley up against the greatest diplomat since Chou En Lai?
Even Radio Free Europe asked the Russians if they could use their footage of what took place.
I’m assuming people know who funds Radio Free Europe – hint, not European and not Russian.
Russia has been invaded twice last century via Ukraine. The last time was in WWII and about 20 million Russians died to win the war against Hitler.
This may be why they see Ukraine as something more than a little country on their borders. The US has been trying to isolate Russia to maintain it’s US hegemony of the rest of the world since the Berlin Wall fell, but as any student of history knows when there is only one gangster on the block the options for the rest of us are very limited. Having two gangsters or even three, if China steps up to the mark, opens up a whole host of possibilities for the rest of us as they all vie for influence.
Isn’t it interesting how Australian politicians suddenly get interested in increasing aid to the Pacific Islands when China starts to curry favour with them. Now I wonder who put them up to it, as they don’t have the wit to think it up themselves.
The last twenty or so years with only one gangster around has not been a great period for the poor of the world or the middle class for that matter. Aid from the US dried up completely apart from Israel and Egypt, and of course those champions of human rights the House Of Saud.
With three gangsters on the block, things can only improve. It all adds up to “what is bad for America is most likely better for the rest of us”
There is a big risk however, that there will be some drive-by shooting which may result in some collateral damage. But if the US stays on-top climate change will get us anyway. Maybe it would be better and more dignified to go down fighting the bastards.
As the new besties, Xi Jinping and V. V. Putin have often said, Robert, to paraphrase – ‘Time for a multi-polar world.’
The unipolar alternative has been a dead set bust.
Another “F-minus” to Crikey for this rehash of CNN/BBC/US State Department anal drip by Damien Kingsbury. And for that matter our sadly degenerated ABC news department. The title of this piece should really be “Why the US is using its Ukrainian proxy to provoke Russia”. The strategic objective can be read here, in the official statement of the US State Department of the meeting in Kiev between Mike Pompeo and his Ukrainian counterparts on 16 November, 2018.
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/11/287421.htm
Note paragraphs 4 and 5 which state “The two sides underscored the need to continue building Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russian aggression, reaffirmed the importance of the Minsk agreements in ending Russia’s aggression, and highlighted the need to restore Ukrainian control over the Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied or controlled by Russia – Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Both sides decided that a robust UN-mandated international security force in the areas of Donbas controlled by Russia, including the Ukraine-Russia international border, would create the necessary security conditions for the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements.”
Sounds very like meddling, if not a stated intent, or even an actual declaration of war.
Nine days later, on cue, the Kiev regime sends two small gunboats and a tug into Russia’s territorial waters. Warned to cease and desist they charged in regardless, and the Russian navy quite understandably fired shots across their bows, boarded and arrested them. Just like our Border Force treats asylum seeker boats who enter Australia’s territorial waters. In this case however, charging gunboats can be interpreted as having hostile intent, particularly as they were heading towards the bridge that both the US and its proxy regime in Kiev had declared “should be bombed”.
NTV news last night reported that many of the sailors on board the vessels were “green youths” who were in a ‘state of shock” and had no idea of what they were doing. In other words, deliberate “sacrificial victims” sent into harms way who if they had been killed would have been glorified as “martyrs”. Like those poor fools who demonstrated on the Maidan not realising they were being used as cover for an armed coup.
Fortunately, alternative narratives are available to those who seek them. Here are a couple:
http://thesaker.is/about-the-latest-ukronazi-provocation-in-the-kerch-strait/
http://thesaker.is/ukrainian-sailors-confirm-that-they-deliberately-entered-russian-waters/
As for Professor Kingsbury, sorry, but he really doesn’t know his arse from his elbow.