UK Prime Minister Theresa May has survived a no-confidence motion within the Conservative Party, quite possibly leaving the country in an even more confused situation than before.
May won the vote 200-117, also quite possibly the worst possible result, with the PM gaining just enough of a margin to make her position tenable, yet insufficient to give her intra-party legitimacy.
Best of all, under the party’s stability rules, another such motion cannot be brought on for another year. The vote was triggered by a petition of 48 letters to the “1922 committee” of Tory backbenchers (the year is their average birth date), demanding a confidence vote.
The pro-Leave Brexit camp have been pushing for what the Brits don’t call a spill since the announcement of the deal struck between May and the EU, which would see the UK subject to EU rules for an indefinite period, in order to stay within the EU Customs Union, until a UK-EU trade deal was negotiated.
That deal had to be ratified by parliament. But it never had any chance of getting up, with Labour, Lib Dems and Tory leavers opposed. Two days ago, May pulled the bill on the eve of the vote, and the no-confidence motion followed.
The situation is now head-bangingly complex. May has been conducting a round of shuttle diplomacy in Europe to try and get a better deal, but everyone knows this is simply a way of looking busy. There is no better offer on the table, and nothing that would satisfy Leavers, save for access to the Customs Union, but immunity from EU laws and regulations, essentially a giant free rider, and a gaping hole in EU governance.
The “crash-out” date of March 29 next year looms, in which the Article 50 process fully kicks in, and the UK leaves the EU. At that point the UK will be at a disadvantage to non-EU nations that have customs protocols in place, because there will be no protocols in place. Customs will be ad hoc, and the Northern Ireland-Irish Republic border will have to be re-enforced, or left as an open back door to the EU.
So what next? The pressure will now start to build on everyone. The Leave Tories will remain steadfast, inviting a crash-out. Not only do they want to retake their party and reform it along neo-Thatcherite lines, but personal ambition is playing a role; this chaos is the best shot for Boris Johnston, Jacob Rees-Mogg and others to present their leadership credentials.
Labour, too, will hold the line — but the pressure on the Corbyn leadership will be tremendous. Had the party been under Blairite leadership, they would quite possibly have crossed the floor to support the EU’s deal. May would have accepted it, knowing that some sort of place in history was secure, and Labour would have gone on to election victory as the natural party of government against a Tory rabble.
But the Corbyn leadership is pro-Leave itself — left Brexit, or “Lexit” as it’s being called — and they have no incentive to help May in this regard. What they want is a new election, a contest on the Tory legitimacy to lead on anything. They’re in talks with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to come out on a parliamentary no-confidence motion — the other parties would join that — but the DUP would need a spoon with a handle the length of the Irish Sea to sup with Corbyn, whom they see as an IRA sympathiser.
The real jam would come for Labour if May were to go nuclear and propose a second referendum, based on the proposition that “Leave” means “leave with no deal”. That is what many, many people want — many of them Labour supporters — but a second referendum, a “Yes” vote to remain, would give May what she needed to reclaim control of her party. Labour would then be split.
Thrills and spills. Mostly spills. And a vote curiously named around confidence, the one thing in short supply, even before the gates close at Calais, in a few months’ time.
Neville Chamberlain survived a no confidence motion in May, 1940 ‘winning’ with a majority of 81 votes. 33 of his Conservatives voted against, along with 5 of their allies. Many Conservatives abstained. Perhaps some of the abstentions were forced, because the MPs weren’t able to attend? Many of the MPs were serving officers in the armed forces (making Australia’s section 44 banning of MPs not having positions of profit from the Crown rather ridiculous).
Chamberlain resigned. Theresa May not having the confidence of 117 of her Conservatives is arguably a much worse result and doesn’t make her position tenable.
It’s a dog’s-brexit. Put Boris the Borzoi-Bulldog in charge – let him own it. Labour can clean up afterwards.
So what do you do with an electorate with a pretty poor record? (Remember Boaty McBoatyFace?).
Having been asked to vote on whether they believed the moon was made of cheese, they actually voted to build a ladder to the moon to get the cheese. They now say May’s ladder just won’t work, and will don yellow vests until they get the right ladder.
One consolation for the leavers – no refugee with a brain will seek asylum in such a madhouse.
“One consolation for the leavers – no refugee with a brain will seek asylum in such a madhouse.” I thought about that for a minute and realised it’s actually no consolation. Here in Australia many refugees with brains are pillars of society. One of them is Governor of South Australia. So if the only refugees going to Brexitistan are the ones without brains they’ve shot themselves in yet another foot.
I’d love to know whether the bulk of the Labour party are brexiteers or whether they are split equally. There is something nasty about Rees-mogg and Corbyn being on the same side of any argument….It just doesn’t sit right.
The best of all possible outcomes would be for May to take the whole exit question, including the terms of the exit, to a general election where the Labour party campaign against the exit terms with a position that the UK remain. With Corbyn in control this seems unlikely.
I seriously think there will be rioting on the streets either way.
“There is something nasty about Rees-mogg and Corbyn being on the same side of any argument….It just doesn’t sit right.”
Quite right, but these days becoming more common as the political landscape is re configuring itself. All I can make of it is that we have 2 ideologues sharing the same position for different reasons. Rees-Moog detests the EU because it restricts the power of the British elite and Corbyn because the EU equals capitalist oppression. Both have their unshakeable convictions and will cheerfully watch their country drive over the cliff, regardless of the damage it will do.
Oldie pings it – the Moggster & Jezza have entirely opposite reasons for wanting Brexit – Bozo doesn’t give a flying one way or tuther (ask his brother, sister & father – that’ll be a fun xmas family dinner) so long as he can be PM.
Moggster is too smart, not to mention self serving, to even consider that poisoned chalice – he is making a fortune shorting UK stocks & shares – and Pufferfish Gove could is too traitorous even for the Nasty party.
Jezza has his hands full fighting undead blairites who are still a significant section of the PLP and probably a majority of his Shadow Cabinet – the oily & ambitious Tom Water is his deputy for gawd sake – as well as the appalling bien pissants at the grauniad.
To write “a second referendum, a “Yes” vote to remain, would give May what she needed to reclaim control of her party. Labour would then be split.” is pretty weird – tories as a species are far more Brexit (for the wrong reasons) than the spivs & chancer MPs in the ranks behind May and even they are a larger proportion that the Remainiacs in Labour.
The EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU and, gilets jaunes aside, that project is coming apart at the seams with its inherent contradictions which will blow it asunder when Mutti M departs.
… as well as “the oily & ambitious Tom WATSON”
Remainers are some 66% of Labour supporters and of Corbyn’s grass roots support group Momentum.
Cooper, Charlie (no date) Jeremy Corbyn’s Momentum movement to mobilise its 100,000 supporters behind Remain in the EU referendum, Independent.
Corbyn was first elected in 2015 by 59.5 per cent of Labour members.
He built on that the following year, fighting off a leadership challenge from the PLP and winning 61.8 per cent of their support.
Again in Corbyn in 2016, when 172 Labour MPs voted to get rid of him vs just 40 voting for him to stay on.
In 2017, unprepared for May’s Baldrick cunning plan to call an election, the very idea of which she’d denounced 5 days earlier, against unremitting dissing by all the press – but most poisonous from the grauniad, he won over 30 seats and hasn’t looked back, except to check the proximity of knife wielding colleagues.
I am pleased to see you label it “head-bangingly complex” Guy. I thought it might the fast ageing of my grey cells that was interfering with my understanding.
“There is no better offer on the table, and nothing that would satisfy Leavers,… ” so they have a no confidence vote in the leader whose hands have been tied. I just don’t get it.