Three months on from Wentworth and another three before the likely date of the federal election, the wave of independent candidates challenging traditionally safe Liberal seats shows no sign of subsiding.
Over the long weekend alone, Tony Abbott gained yet another challenger in Warringah, in the form of barrister and Olympic skier Zali Steggall. Bank executive and Liberal Party member (for now) Oliver Yates emerged as a likely starter against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, and reports suggested Julia Banks, the Liberal turned independent member for Chisholm, will shortly announce her intention to run against Greg Hunt in Flinders.
The prime ministerial captain’s call of installing Warren Mundine as the Liberal candidate for Gilmore in southern New South Wales has also prompted Grant Schultz, who was elbowed aside to make way for Mundine, to announce he will be going it alone.
With Labor appearing set for a clean-sweep of conventional battleground seats, the further prospect of a blue-ribbon rebellion has encouraged suggestions the Liberal Party faces a calamity unlike any it has suffered before.
However, not everyone is convinced. Writing in The Weekend Australian on January 19, Gerard Henderson accused elements of the media of having a “fixation” with independents that belied the unlikelihood of a post-election hung parliament, and the prospect that the Coalition might actually be able to claw back a few seats from the current crossbench.
There would certainly seem a strong chance of either the Liberals or Nationals recovering Indi with the retirement of Cathy McGowan, who has held the seat as an independent since she defeated Sophie Mirabella in 2013.
Nor is Kerryn Phelps assured of re-election in Wentworth — she was only narrowly successful in October, and history suggests independents can often struggle to replicate their byelection feats in the very different environment of a national election campaign.
Nearly half the independent or minor party candidates who have won federal or state byelections over the past three decades were defeated at the subsequent general election, and another quarter had their margins reduced — not a luxury Phelps can afford, given her margin of 1.2%.
Under compulsory preferential voting, independents typically have two hurdles to clear: they must poll well enough to finish ahead of the weaker major party, and the primary vote of the stronger major party must not be so high that they require only a trickle of preferences to make it to 50%.
The first of these presents a formidable obstacle for Grant Schultz, as a finely poised marginal seat like Gilmore is one in which neither major party is particularly easy to overtake. Julia Banks will likewise have a hard time overcoming Labor if she indeed runs in Flinders, with a poll conducted for the CFMMEU last week suggesting Labor might well be strong enough to take the seat in their own right.
As for the second hurdle, recent history suggests Coalition members squaring off against independents are likely to struggle if their primary vote falls to the low forties.
Out of 30 federal and state seat results as far back as 2007 in which the final preference counts were between the Coalition and a minor party or independent, Coalition candidates held on whenever their primary vote remained above 45% (eight cases in all), but lost when it went below 40% (17 cases).
In the five cases where they landed between 40% and 45%, Coalition candidates were batting one from five.
Given Josh Frydenberg’s substantial 58.2% primary vote from 2016, Kooyong will not be an easy mark for an independent.
But it could well be a different story in Warringah, where Tony Abbott managed only 51.6% in 2016, and has made few new friends since.
Certainly there is no shortage of locals hostile to Abbott and keenly alert to the opportunity.
Steggall is the fourth independent to have declared her hand in Warringah, and by the count of one seasoned local observer, there are no fewer than nine groups active in the electorate whose objective can be abbreviated as “ABBA”: “any bastard but Abbott”.
Anybody that put any credence in that wrinkled up old neo con henderson has rocks in their head, and that goes for any fool that believes news poll, this election will once again show that the polls are manipulated to give the coalition faint hope, even tho scummo is prepared to sacrifice gladys to save his own skin any fool thinking that voters will vent their bile and return to him are as dumb as him, voting for scummo is like a turkey voting for xmas.
Morrison doesn’t care, he is staring into the distance to when he and his family will rise to heaven in the rapture and evil Labor people will descend into hell for eternity. The problem is what would heaven be like filled with people like Morrison, all the interesting people will be in hell.
“The problem is what would heaven be like filled with people like Morrison…”
Good god. Endless games of Scrabble, repeats of Neighbours on the box, shandies all round, and an endless supply of Dad jokes. Sounds more like hell to me.
The interesting point is these independents running will have substantial on the ground resources helping them, from friends and community groups to bigger groups like getup.
That has never been the case before. Phelps already has an army of supporters and it’s impossible to predict the thinking of a rusted on liberal in Wentworth who knows their party is going to lose government.
Interesting times. In the best of all possible worlds this leads to voter engagement and activism and a healthy rump of independents in parliament.
A plague on all the parties – let’s have a Parliament in which Members represent, first & foremost the local electorate as intended by our Constitution – which a fair reading would show intended parties to be anathema.
Parties are a perfect example of the problem – they demand loyalty to the exclusion of decency, rationality and regard for constituents.
They are the Mob – less than the sum of their parts – and subservient to the Glorious Leader or, worse, those repellent men-without-navels who work in the dark, behind the throne, never openly, for “uneasy is the head that wears the crown”.
A field composed mostly of disaffected liberals, who could easily enough be brought back inside the tent.
Is there anyone anywhere who doubts they’d vote with the liberals 95% of the time?
Around the coffee shops and BBQs in Menzies and Kooyong among mostly Liberal voters there is a real sense of a need for change. A competent, liberal independent in Kooyong could well win a lot more support than predicted, Josh really destroyed his credibility with that piece of coal.
Likewise in Menzies the sitting member is heartily despised for his anti-antediluvian thinking and ongoing support for Abbott. Find a capable, independent liberal candidate and Andrews is gone; though it will come as no surprise that in a two way contest the Labor candidate could get up. Bring it on.