There are many likelihoods in an election year: scare campaigns, three word slogans and photos of politicians attacking everyday food as though they were aliens who missed the class on how humans eat. But none are so reliable as the rush of party leaders to curry favour with the sunshine state.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is currently on a four-day Queensland trip, pledging to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years. Earlier this month, opposition leader Bill Shorten told a group of party faithful — as he was about to embark on a nine-day bus tour of Queensland — that Labor needed to “win Queensland” if it wanted to form government.
Why is Queensland such a big deal?
“I think it’s easy to put too much emphasis on Queensland making or breaking the election,” Dr Joff Lelliott, lecturer at the School of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Queensland told Crikey. “There are also other states, like New South Wales, that could deliver government to Labor even if the party stands still everywhere else, so we shouldn’t focus only on Queensland.”
But to the extent that it will play a part, the Coalition will be worried.
“For starters, most seats are held by the Coalition and Labor has relatively few,” Lelliott said (the Coalition holds 21 of its 73 seats in Queensland, while the ALP has only eight). “And when you look further at the numbers, a huge proportion of the most marginal Coalition seats in Australia are in Queensland, so even a small swing to Labor in Queensland potentially delivers it enough additional seats to form government.”
The seat of Capricornia is held by only 0.6% by Michelle Landry (another of those rumoured to be quitting), Forde is clung to by Bert Van Manen by the same margin, and Flynn, where Ken O’Dowd clung on in 2016 by just 1814 votes, is held by 1%. A further six LNP seats in Queensland are held by 4% or less. Among those eight seats, all tantalisingly within reach, are scalps such as Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, 20 year member Warren Entsch and the perpetual malcontent George Christensen.
“On the other side of the ledger, few of Labor’s Queensland seats are on tight margins. That means Labor has a lot to play for in Queensland and relatively little to lose,” Lelliott said. There is the notable exception of Herbert — the closest seat in Australia at time of writing — which Cathy O’Toole won by 37 votes. Labor has four seats below a 5% margin in QLD.
“Even if Labor can only achieve a swing of a few per cent nationally, it could still take government, largely by winning seats in Queensland.”
How did the redistribution effect things?
The Electoral Commission’s recent federal redistribution made only subtle differences in QLD. The Coalition will at least be encouraged that Labor’s most vulnerable seats remained either unchanged (Longman, Herbert, Moreton) or have gotten slightly worse, as in Griffith.
What influence will the flood of independents and minor parties have?
The other argument that has dominated early talk of the upcoming election — the influence of high profile independents — will seemingly be less of a telling factor in QLD.
“Queensland isn’t seeing strong independents challenging individual MPs and the Queensland-based minor parties — Katter, Palmer, One Nation — will mostly have a thinly spread vote. None of them are currently lighting things up in Queensland,” Lelliott said. “For all the noise and media attention in Queensland’s 2017 state election, One Nation essentially fizzed, and has become less and less prominent since then.”
However, as Crikey noted after Kerryn Phelps took Wenthworth, the threat of an independent may be present in the seat of Ryan, after LNP preselectors ditched pro-Turnbull incumbent Jane Prentice for “young male conservative from central casting” Julian Simmonds. As we said back then, Prentice could probably hold Ryan as an independent.
By the same token, the LNP hold on the seat of Brisbane may be threatened by the Greens, whose candidate in Brisbane will be Andrew Bartlett, who returned to the limelight in 2017 when he filled Larissa Waters’ section 44 vacancy in the Senate.
I can see the reason for targeting Qld., as I live in the electorate of Flynn, held by Ken O’Dowd on margin of 1%. As far as I am concerned he has done sweet FA for the electorate, but that’s pretty usual in the current Coalition. The Coalition losing quite a few seats in Qld. such as these shockers Dutton, Canavan, Christensen & a few others would hopefully put them out of politics forever.
Same here, my home base is Capricornia held by Michelle Landry. The only thing she has given the electorate was fridge magnets …. mine is hardly able to cling to the fridge, I doubt she has comparable powers of attraction for the voters this time around.
Ken O’Dowd is a bit more visible in Canberra. You can see on the wall of the Vietnamese restaurant in the suburb of Griffith his endorsement of that fine eatery.
I live in Flynn also. Recently I engaged him by email on his views concerning climate change. His incoherent reply which included babbling about the era of dinosaurs convinced me he was either a liar, fucking thick or parroting right wing Liberal gibberish. O’Dowd has polished his seat for too long!
I seem to recall it was success in Qld which put Kevin Rudd in The Lodge…with a convincing win.
While Queenslanders usually wear the hillbilly, all jolly Bumpkin jokes and all that, Queensland is really two States in one, Brisbane and the rest. We are also radical experimenters, and sometimes the lab results fall flat, but not always. Hansen and Palmer are obvious floaters, as is Katter. You get that sometimes.
But, we have also elected the only Communist ever to win a seat in Australia. And, in so many elections, the Bumpkins play the tune that the rest of the country must dance to. That’s why those two Southerners, Morrison and Shorten are inflicting us with their presence right now. If the rest of the country tried some old fashioned radicalization instead of just voting for “Bill or Ben” we would end up, possibly, in a better place? If the other states are allegedly so much smarter than us your clever voting would swamp ours, wouldn’t they? Anyway, electing Hansen just exposes the crazy, angry, vote but the Liberals give her power by supporting her views. If you don’t like Ms Hansen stop voting for those that weaponize her.
I suspect that Qlders revel in their contrariness and would be just as likely to vote in the ALP if they came out abusing them. What have you got to lose.
NSW and Vic and probably WA will seal the deal but QLD could almost put the nail in the LNP coffin if they go with the rest of the country. Getting rid of Dutton and Christensen would be the tough love the LNP needs to renew the party.
I’m expecting perverse outcomes, as always.
Qld voters is weird – must be all the sun & bundies.
If ever there were an electorate who should be welded to ABTs (Anyone But Tories) it is they yet were happy to be bribed brain dead by Joh, whose taint lingers still.