Naturally, opinion is divided over the consequences of yesterday’s defeat of the government on the medical evacuation bill. For the right, the defeat of the government was really a victory for Scott Morrison, opening the way to an election triumph over Labor on the back of a 2001-style border security election campaign. For the left, what is a relatively minor tweak to the process for approving medical evacuations is a triumph of compassion and decency in our otherwise blighted and racist asylum seeker policy.
What is agreed by all, and the media too, is that yesterday was of immense significance. But what if it’s not? What if most voters don’t have anything like the level of interest in asylum seekers that either the left or the right, or the media, thinks they should have?
For the issue is totemic for all three. For the media, the prospect of a repeat of 2001 is an enthralling one, replacing the dysfunctional drift toward a Labor win with a rat-cunning Liberal campaign exploiting border security fears. For the left, asylum seekers have enormous significance, reflecting a naive “let them all come” sentimentality, and a conviction that most Australians are irredeemably racist. The right also sees the issue in near-apocalyptic terms, with a vast brown tide of humanity needing to be kept out of Australia, and unflinching brutality the only mechanism guaranteed to do so.
But while partisans of both sides obsess over asylum seekers, most voters have little interest in the issue. “Treatment of asylum seekers” has never made the top ten list of issues voters identify as most important — that list is always dominated by health, the economy and jobs, and education. The only time it becomes an issue for voters is when it is perceived that our borders are being threatened. In 2013, when tens of thousands of asylum seekers and illegal immigrants were coming to Australia by boat, concern about the issue reached 14% in Essential Report’s regular “important issues” question. But after the Abbott government succeeded in stopping boat arrivals, concern about the issue fell back into single figures and by 2016 was just 7%. (and that 7% is mostly Greens voters who presumably want to let more in). The incessant invocation of 2001 also misses the point that that election was held in an atypical environment — a high-profile single case (the Tampa, plus the Coalition’s lies about kids overboard) and the febrile atmosphere after 9/11. Commentators also forget that the Howard government had already mounted a huge comeback in the polls before Tampa, courtesy of bribing key sections of its base, such as retirees — largesse taxpayers are still paying for.
The government is thus a victim of its own success. It stopped the boats, and thus saved the lives of hundreds of potential maritime asylum seekers. Those of us who thought they couldn’t do it, or who talked about “push factors” being more important than “pull factors”, were proved wrong. But the government isn’t given credit for it — certainly not by the left, which prefers to focus on offshore detention and won’t even accept that any lives have been saved by stopping maritime arrivals, but, even worse, by the electorate. With the boats stopped, the issue has vanished from voters’ radar and they are instead focused on the things that normally shape their voting: health and the economy, in particular.
So, the government and News Corp might fantasise about a border security election, but for the 2001 redux fantasy to occur, they’ll need a flotilla of boats coming over the horizon. Scott Morrison is preparing for this scenario, claiming any boat that now comes is the fault of Bill Shorten and he’s preparing for another influx of maritime arrivals by reopening Christmas Island. But to elevate the issue in voters’ minds, there’ll have to be a lot of boats in the next 100 days, or a major security incident that will heighten voter fears. So far, the only voters who seem prepared to change their votes on asylum seekers are affluent Liberal voters who have switched to independents like Kerryn Phelps, not Labor voters angry about the imminent flood of brown people. And the only impression most voters will have about yesterday’s events is more chaos in parliament, a point only Phil Coorey picked up today.
But the left is just as out of touch. The government, and its rotten bureaucrats in the Department of Immigration, have handled offshore detention with brutality, malicious negligence and incompetence; in a just world some bureaucrats would be facing manslaughter prosecution for their role in the deaths of detainees. But it is literally a tenth-order (or lower) issue for ordinary Australians, who are more concerned about an economy that delivers for them, poor services and poor infrastructure. Look at the US if you want to see what happens when progressive parties obsess about fringe social issues rather than focusing on delivering for working people.
Will this issue be an election decider? Write to boss@crikey.com.au with your full name and let us know.
You say “fringe social issues”, I say basic human rights. You say “a naive ‘let them all come’ sentimentality”, I say fulfilling our obligations under international law. But sure, tomato, tomahto.
Further, I think it represents a major turning point like the marriage equality vote, where voters can now see Coalition bullshit writ large and don’t like it.
Watch the polls now as the Pentecostal liar from the shire and his bent-cop crony ratchet up the hysteria levels to completely unbearable.
Don’t forget GetUp weren’t around in the Tampa days, but they are a huge force for political progress now.
Does anyone really believe their BS about weakening our borders as a result of this bill.
It’s condescending to all reasonable Australians that we will fall for such BS.
It reminds me a bit of the carbon tax scaremongering from Abbott.
Unfortunately, it’s not a matter of reason but of emotions. I think Scomo might be trying to channel Trump here. Several commentators have noted that although Trump does not have a religious bone in his body, his public performances have all the marks of religious revivalist meetings in their ability to incite irrational emotions. Though I don’t believe Australians are nearly as susceptible to this behavior as the Americans, we should remember that Scomo is an experienced holy roller and should not be underestimated.
@Marcus Ogden well said. This article made me queasy. In the social sciences they differentiate between “important” and “significant” and that distinction was elided here. You can argue that this bill is not significant for the election without diminishing its importance. The lives and wellbeing of these asylum seekers are exactly as important as “I think” – indeed nothing, really, is more important.
Both of which worked, along with the usual B/S such as better economic managers, family values & sanctity of marriage.
Never underestimate the general level of stupidity, cupidity and sheer nastiness in the electorate.
A cynical, mendacious, malicious and cruel federal government (but I repeat myself) would fund people smugglers in Indonesia to send a few boats our way, and pay them to claim it’s because of the medivac legislation.
It would be cheaper than an election campaign.
There are already boats heading to Australia-as they always have been since 2014. The only difference is the extremely costly boat turnbacks & refoulments.
Any alleged marketing skills Morrison has are well and truly to the fore as he now sells the perception of weakened borders to the people smugglers. Alas, like most marketing, it omits detail.
The Medivac legislation applies only to the wretches already stuck on Manus and Nauru. Nothing – nothing! – has changed for foreigners eyeing Oz.
Zut – Exactly. Future refugees are not subject to this bill. This is the gaping flaw in the LNP scare campaign.
Disappointed BK didn’t define this.
Wayne you’re spot on. Some LNP lowlife will probably be sent to provide inducements to the right people, a NewsCrap stenographer will chronicle the events in Indonesia to bring about the Alarming situation. Expect lurid details of any unfolding event with Donald Trump like dishonesty. The after dark RWNJ will be slobbering with delight. It’s da Labor Party fault, Beel Shortin bad, bad, bad, da Labor Party bad, bad, bad.
And whereas any boats that have been arriving in the last few years are ‘on water matters’ and kept secret, you can be sure that any that arrive now will suddenly no longer be a secret.
Also interesting to hear that bloke from Christmas Island on abc radio saying that he thinks it is a really dumb idea to reopen the detention centre there, I gather Indonesians are of the same mind. Another thought bubble.
The Coalition’s hysterical claims about the consequences of the medical care bill being passed are completely non-sensical.
Despite the undemocratic secrecy regarding off-shore detention centres, it seems that the population of those centres has been steadily decreasing, a fact for which the Coalition claims great credit. The only conclusion that can be made from that is that boat turn-backs are working in respect of the banal ‘Stop the Boats’ objective, whatever one thinks about turn-backs.
How then can the Coalition cogently argue that bringing sick imprisoned refugees to Australia will resuscitate the people smuggler trade?
The only explanation for this Coalition hysteria is that it considers that every element of its systematic cruelty to asylum seekers is mission-critical. And if that is the case, how can a defeat in parliament NOT be a vote of no confidence?
This government is now, very clearly, not in the national interest, whatever that means.
“How then can the Coalition cogently argue that bringing sick imprisoned refugees to Australia will resuscitate the people smuggler trade?”
They can’t.
Instead, they are lying about the effect and powers of the bill.
This crackpot regime don’t do ‘cogent’ or ‘argument’…they lie through their fake teeth.
The media seem frozen in their seats…’we are not players, we are observers’ repeat and rinse…they are enablers of lies if they do not scoff at Dutton’s constructs.
They also neglect to mention that they have already brought more sick people to Australia than remain, and this has not resulted in any ‘threat’. This has been done after being directed by the courts, at great cost to the Australian people.
“…to elevate the issue in voters’ minds, there’ll have to be a lot of boats in the next 100 days.” That’s easy to arrange – simply deploy the naval forces involved in turn-backs to where the boats ain’t. Watch and learn.
Watch for the sudden change in the ” we never discuss on water or operational matters” line from the Govt.
I also suspect, along with previous posters, that Pro Lib forces might even sponsor a boat or more.
It’s a non event while we think nothing is happening (concealed by “Operational Matters”), but watch the sheeples panic if boats seem to be coming again.
In reality it won’t be about ” people drowning at sea ” either.
BTW. How come our much vaunted Jinderlee over the horizon Radar, which cost us taxpayers zillions, seem to be unable to see these boats?
Could Jindalee pick up wooden boats?
Don’t know for sure, but normal radar can pick up wooden boats. Perhaps it reflects off the metal fixings and parts of boat,or maybe wet parts,but they show up. Dugout canoes are probably a different matter.
There’s the real prospect of Morrison & Dutton announcing an increase in asylum boats but refusing to give any detail due to the ever-so-convenient ‘on water and operational matters’.
The Coalition is now so desperate they will resort to any ploy regardless how shameful.
And remember the number of times that AFP and other ‘security’ services have acted as the accomplices of the LNP government. It won’t be difficult for Morrison and co to engineer a few boat arrivals in the next few months. Morrison’s bullshit about the bill opening the floodgates is a deliberate attempt to incite refugees to attempt it. The Murdoch press + the Peter Costello-led 9/Fairfax outfit + the nazis’ friends at 7 will feed on it like crazy.
Together with a cash splash, a press-supported scare re any vaguely decent ALP fiscal policy, and some confection about Shorten’s “terror links” (eg maybe he spoke at an ALP branch dinner in Coburg chaired by the second cousin of a Muslim acquitted of a terrorism offence) and Scummo and co are back in business.
Children overboard…..
Didn’t the number of naval boats get taken off the run over the Christmas, but now we are told that they have to be ramped up.
“What is agreed by all, and the media too, is that yesterday was of immense significance. But what if it’s not?”
Well beyond the significance for sick refugees, it is significant because it’s already clear that the government are going to make it an election issue, just like we have seen with every other recent election. All the better if most voters don’t care about it, the government can use it as a punching bag and a diversion from other issues.
“….. won’t even accept that any lives have been saved by stopping maritime arrivals”
The argument that we are saving lives by “stopping the boats” is simplistic and flawed.
Most asylum seekers are running for their lives, if they stayed where they were they may be risking death. They have to weigh up the risks of staying vs fleeing. By turning them away from Australia it does not make them disappear, they will risk their lives travelling to another country, by land or sea.
You’ll notice the “I stopped these” trophy in Morrison’s office isn’t from the UN or any recognised humanitarian organisation. Why is that I wonder ?
We have still have boats arriving, but they are being turned back. Border Force are very efficient at getting to the boats well before they make land fall in Australia, so there is no reason they can’t monitor their journey to Australia rather than pushing them back to sea.
“….there’ll have to be a lot of boats in the next 100 days”
Yeah, I’m sure Morrison’s policy of not commenting on “on water matters” will change during the next 100 days. If any asylum seekers try and enter Australia by boat he will be screaming from the roof tops politicising it.
” there is no reason they can’t monitor their journey to Australia rather than pushing them back to sea.”
If we were to adopt this approach, why not let them buy a plane ticket in Jakarta rather than get on a boat at all?
Or a plane ticket from anywhere?
According to the Red Cross, many do arrive by air.
“Many people arrive by plane with a valid visa then claim asylum while they are here.
Unlike people who arrive in Australia by boat, people who arrive by plane are generally not subject to mandatory detention.”
https://www.redcross.org.au/get-involved/take-action/help-refugees/facts
….and interestingly barely 50% of that cohort turn out to be genuine refugees. As we don’t subject them to mandatory detention, what are the odds that the unsuccessful applicants might just disappear into the community to join the rest of the 60,000+ Visa Over-stayers out there?
As the Red Cross says, asylum seekers who arrive by air have visas, which are only given to tourists, business visitors etc. If anyone who wanted to claim asylum was automatically given an “asylum seeker’s visa”, there’d be no need to get on a boat.
I’m not advocating this, just saying it is the logical outcome of lovat’s suggestion.
The immigration department is widely known for cancelling tourist visas of people they suspect might be attempting to claim asylum in Australia, even to the extent of the refoulement of suspected or known asylum seekers deported from border control at Australian airports. See for example Four Corners’ story last week on Rahaf Mohammed, the 18 year old who was bailed up in Thailand by Saudi diplomats and was en route to Australia – our wonderful government cancelled her visa the instant they found out she was planning to seek asylum, and it was left to Canada to step in and rescue her. The story also discusses two known cases where Saudi women were deported from Sydney airport after attempting to seek asylum, sent back to likely imprisonment or death at the hands of male relatives.
https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/escape-from-saudi/10778838
And this article by Abul Rizvi, former Deputy Secretary of Immigration which documents the massive increase in people arriving by air and applying for a refugee visa, the majority of which are not genuine applications
http://johnmenadue.com/abul-rizvi-the-best-of-2018-dutton-sets-new-asylum-seeker-application-record/
Why not send immigration officials to Jakarta to process & re-settle asylum seekers before they leave Indonesia? 90% of asylum seekers in Indonesia have already been processed at least once before.
What! Give up the election issue that keeps on giving?
Lovert’s final paragraph is the key – regardless of the facts, this wretched government will concoct any story to emotionally tap into the xenophobia lurking beneath the surface of so many people and ready to be used as a convenient scapegoat for the misery they are experiencing after 40 years of neoliberalism. As an ad man, Morrison knows that emotion trumps reason every time.
So up till now it has suited the government’s narrative to tell us they have ‘stopped the boats’ (they haven’t – over 30 boats have come through that we know of). Now that it suits the government’s narrative to tell us that ‘the boats are coming’, this is what the government and their propagandists in the Murdoch media will scream hysterically from now until May.
It is frightening to think that this government can lie to us, and cover up the truth at will. They lied about children overboard, they say we cant know about any new boat arrivals because of national security.
I am worried that the same people who were fooled by the children overboard lie will be conned again with this. There is a reason Scott Morrison is making this an election issue. He knows just how easy it will be to say now, “Oh look theres a boat”…….and the papers will dutifully report a new invasion of boats…. just in time for the election. As the ad man said, “children overboard anyone?”