Given the ongoing chaos of the Brexit process so far, this morning’s vote is perhaps the closest thing to a predictable outcome we’ve seen for some time: the British Parliament has voted to seek an extension to the UK’s exit from the European Union.
All things being equal, the UK would have crashed out of the European Union on March 29 with or without a deal. The vote seeks to delay that until June 30.
So, to the extent we can predict anything about Brexit, what happens next?
How likely is the delay?
The extension requires the approval of all 27 states of the EU. The commission has said it will “take note” of the vote and consider the request. But clearly, the EU is not pleased with the UK. After the exit deal the EU negotiated with Theresa May was voted down this week for a second time (see below), they issued a statement detailing their “disappointment”:
We regret the outcome of tonight’s vote and are disappointed that the UK government has been unable to ensure a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement agreed by both parties in November. On the EU side we have done all that is possible to reach an agreement… Given the additional assurances provided by the EU in December, January and yesterday, it is difficult to see what more we can do. If there is a solution to the current impasse it can only be found in London.
They’ve said previously that any request for a delay would have to be accompanied by a “credible explanation”, with the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt tweeting “Unless there is a clear majority in the House of Commons for something precise, there is no reason at all for the European Council to agree on a prolongation.”
What’s in May’s deal?
The deal May negotiated with the EU set the UK’s withdrawal for March 29, with a customs union taking over and relevant UK law conforming to EU law indefinitely or until a UK-EU trade agreement is negotiated.
It also deals with what happens to UK citizens living on the continent; EU citizens in the UK; and, most controversially, how to avoid a “hard” border at the new frontier between the UK and the EU: the historically fractious border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It also details the amount of money the UK will have to pay the EU to break the partnership — around £39 billion.
As Guy Rundle put it this week:
The deal had two sticking points for pro-Brexiteers: one, that the UK-EU conformation of laws would be indefinite, thus defeating the whole point of Brexit; and two, that the backstop could eventually apply to Northern Ireland alone, thus putting an EU border down the middle of the UK.
The deal has not satisfied hardcore Brexiteers, nor remainers. In January Parliament overwhelmingly voted to reject it — 432 votes to 202.
Then on March 12, after Theresa May had extracted some changes from the EU and tried again, they voted against it once more. This time it was rejected 391 votes to 242. May will make a third attempt to get the deal through Parliament in the next week.
Will the UK leave with no deal?
While Parliament isn’t happy with the deal, it’s also voted up a motion rejecting the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. Although this isn’t legally binding, it’s seen as another defeat for May, who had wanted to keep no-deal on the table and had ordered Tory MPs to vote against the motion. On this, like many other things, her own cabinet have ignored her.
Could there be a second referendum?
Many remianers have argued that now, with a far more concrete idea of what the UK public is voting for and against, there ought to be a second referendum. So far, however, the Parliament has rejected any moves to put a second vote to the public.
The EU want to avoid a no-deal Brexit too. Not to the extent of giving the UK concessions that breach the basic principles of the EU, but accepting an extension of time doesn’t cost them and there’s clearly some movement at the station now. The EU would have to have rocks in its collective head to force a no-deal Brexit in a situation where the UK is actually exploring other options. And ditto if the UK actually pulls the plug on Brexit entirely, which would be a massive win for the entire European project
I think they will give the extension, in other words.
So far the DUP and the Rees-Mogg group have both held the line firmly on preferring no deal to a deal which doesn’t give them everything they wanted. They won’t blink at the prospect of a no deal actually happening. They MAY blink if a 2nd referendum looks like happening, or they may hold the line and back themselves to win. They won’t blink if May is just offering the same deal again.
The proposals by Corbyn and co to pursue much softer Brexit options are a joke. I don’t see the constituency for them; I don’t see the interest from the EU in negotiating on them.
I continue to see a 2nd referendum as the only circuit breaker on offer, and the possibility of the hard Brexiters and DUP folding and accepting the May deal to avoid that referendum as the only way it can be realistically avoided, despite the fact that it seems there is a long way to go before a 2nd referendum can pass parliament (in large part because Corbyn has been such a reluctant convert to the idea).
The “rocks” in in the head of the Brexiteers who have no plans for no deal exit The delusions of lost imperial empire still occupies the minds of this strange group of people who still like to believe the British empire still rules the world Although, undermining European unity for the benefit of US hegemony has been the standard game of certain members of the British elite since the days of that ultimate US sycophant Winston Churchill However, this game was more effectively played within the EU the out of it. As the results of the Brexit debacle now demonstrate.
Your namesake was not in favour of a Euroland state – like the UK & others, the ideal was a free trade area.
The centripetal force of Code Napoleon – of which the EU is the very epitome – is anathema to the British concept of the relationship of the state to the individual, ie the Individual is supreme and the state their servant.
Not so on the Continent, citoyen.
It is evident that David Cameron had no idea what he was doing in facilitating a Brexit referendum. Even worse he made the assumption that the answer would be NO, and failed to either develop a coherent exit policy or mount the substantial case to remain.
Meanwhile, the Exiteers were allowed to lie about or misrepresent the consequences and promote the politics of xenophobia, racism, and bigotry to argue their case.
Sadly there is no Winston Churchill about to provide the leadership needed to resolve the crisis. In fact, the only way out is to postpone an exit for at least a year; hold another referendum for a nation that is at least is better informed about the prospect about leaving and may deliver a better outcome for a parliament that is unable to govern.
Churchill would lead Brexiteers!
He had no respect for the fascist tendencies of the Continents’ bureaucrats.
When a vote is as close as this (ditto for Trump) the interference by other countries.. in this case Russia needs to be closely examined.. and of course Murdochs malign influence..
It has reached the stage where I no longer care if the UK jumps off the cliff. Even sight Incapacitated Freddy can see that they are heading towards an economic disaster – yet the pound is still buoyant? So, either I am completely ignorant and wrong, or that half of the English are living blissfully in a state of denial?
And while I have no skin in the game it is perfectly fine for me to be wrong, but for the Poms? I hope that they are aware that knife juggling can involve a few different outcomes other than the one that they are hell bent on pursuing.
I quite liked Shannon Dodson’s comment on The Drum last night. She said something to the effect of “It’s OK out here in the colony”.
Small point – it is not “the English are living blissfully in a state of denial” which is keeping Sterling buoyant but those fully aware that Euroland is a phantasy, only kept afloat by German and soon to be gone British contributions?
All the rest, apart from the Skadiwegians, are net recipients (especially the duplicitous, amoral French), not to say supplicants.
The average deutsche burgher is already pretty pissed off at this and, with the current & worsening manufacturing downturn (pity about all those diesels), will not be amused when they are the sole funders.
I seem to recall someone once wrote about this, it was called something like “Waiting for Brexit”.
The redeeming virtues of British comedy will help them get through:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1106072466391252992