Well, elections for the European Parliament have been held, and the winner is… pretty much anyone you want it to be. With an unprecedented 50% turnout, the highest since direct voting to the institution began in 1979, voters went to nationalist and populist parties in greater numbers, to left and green parties, and away from the mainstream party blocs — which nevertheless maintained their overall control of the chamber.
The European Parliament is a thing of dizzying complexity, in which more than 100 parties and groups sit in about 15 different blocs.
This year for the first time the core centre blocs — the Social Democrats on the left (With UK Labour, the German SPD, Spanish Socialists etc) and the European People’s Parties on right (Christian Democrats, Sweden’s hilariously-named Moderate Party) — have fallen short of the 376 seats they need to (collectively) control business in the 751 seat chamber, with the big losers being the established parties on both sides in Germany, Italy and the UK.
The Social Democrats bloc lost 45 seats, down to 146, and the European People’s Party lost 40 seats to end up with 180. That opens a space for the smaller groups to work together. On the “left”, there’s the Liberal Democrats bloc (the UK Lib-Dems, Germany’s free-market FDP), the Nordic Green Left (which includes Syriza) and the Greens (Greens, everywhere). Only the Nordic Green Left lost — 19 seats down to 39, while the Greens gained 19 to 69. The Liberal Democrats had a small gain to 109.
On the right/nationalist side, there’s the European Conservatives and Reformists (UK Tories and others) down 70 to 60, the Nationalists on 58 — largely Salvini’s “League” party from Italy — and… sigh, the Freedom and Direct Democracy group, which is largely the UK Brexit Party, on 59.
The rise of the nationalists hasn’t been as great as some expected/dreaded, although Marine Le Pen’s rebranded National Front (now “National Rally”) was the largest party in France, along with Salvini’s rise in Italy.
One interesting counter-systemic trend has been the shift back to the Social Democrats in Denmark, and away from the nationalist Danish People’s Party — but only because the Soc Dems have recently switched themselves to being a left-nationalist outfit themselves, shedding much of their multicultural and internationalist policy. This may well be a harbinger for such a movement across Europe, as was the establishment of the Danish People’s Party in the first place.
One other unexpected shift was the further success of the Greens across the western half of the continent. They overtook the Social Democrats to be the second party in Germany, and made solid gains elsewhere.
The crucial aspect of that is that they’re by far the most unified movement across borders (Yanis Varoufakis’s Diem25 movement did poorly, gaining no more than 2-3 seats). A Green party is a Green party. You can be pretty sure what you’re gonna get, whereas other groups are coalitions.
The headline act may well have been the spectacular success of the Brexit anti-party in a country that’s leaving. But in a parliament around since 1952, elected only recently, and with a less-than-clear role, the Greens rise shows that the shifting nature of class is producing a real shift in politics, for the first time in decades.
Older forms of representation are undercut by cross-continent social shift, and the European Parliament is being used to register this. The green-global vs nationalist-communal division is emerging, and what just happened in the European Parliament is a measure of things to come.
50% turnout but still only 37% in the UK I believe. Despite Brexit most Brits still seem to think the EU is irrelevant – I don’t quite get that.
As for “the shifting nature of class … producing a real shift in politics” – we’ll see, Cassandra, we’ll see.
“The green-global vs nationalist-communal division is emerging”–yes, I think this is spot on. I hope at least, for a green & global vision that trumps trump’s.
Careful what you wish for, man…frankly ‘green & global’ doesn’t entirely appeal (or repel, FTM) any more (or less) than nationalist-communal.
Green-communal I could come at – maybe.
Or nationalist-global, CTTOI…
Grundle really needs to change the lenses in his Green tinted glasses – he sees sprouts & saplings everywhere, everywhen but they never flower, let alone seed.
Like bisexuality, intelligence is a rare gift and never one enjoyed by the majority – 10-15% seems to be the ceiling in the West.
Well, both can learned too, AR, thankfully.
Is Rundle Green-tinted? To me it always seems like he’s just taking the enormous piss, mostly as a means of teasing prog-wet-pap-lefties away from his preferred spot on the soap box.
It seems to be that the fellow does possess some ability, Jack, but, equally, the fellow has a rather uninformed following which he is not going to disenfranchise with tracts of thoroughness or rigour. Its more about laziness (or indolence) that “taking the piss”.
This aspect, alone, mitigates against continuing with a subscription. As an aside, I’m here only to ascertain what the subscribers thought of the election and on account of some damned idiotic twaddle from Crikey that I received the following day (Sunday).
The increasingly fractious nature of EU politics is only going to worsen unless the EU parliament does something about its unworkable monetary policy that does not work with a common currency and gives member states nowhere to move on monetary policy. Thomas Piketty has been wisely banging on about this for years. It may seem strange to Australians, but part of Piketty’s suggestions in another democratic EU chamber to deal with necessary limits on differential monetary policy within each member state; ie a move away from draconian austerity imposed by largely Germany and France on naughty states like Greece, Spain, Italy etc. Austerity has clearly not worked and never does.
Guy, perhaps you know to the mm what the average nong deems to be a good article; especially on a topic the nong knows nothing about and so it is with your “essay” today.
You might have mentioned that the European parliament has been around for almost 70 years with voting rights (only) in the last 40 years. Then there the EC (Commission) which is NOT elected but calls the
shots for the (EU) trading block (because that is just what the EU is).
Indeed, Regs created by the unelected EC can (and do) override ‘national’ legalisation. Indeed, the EP has the authority to ratify procedures but NOT not the authority to propose legislation. Even by the members the EP is seen only as a lunch card for a 5 star hotel.
All the bookkeeping that you have undertaken is all “good and well” but there is no one single interpretation; keeping in mind that the EP is no big deal in any event. The inclination to popularism might have been explored but even in Macron’s case (the more sophisticated version) is coming apart at the edges. The alternative is some form of neo-Lib. Frankly if a few countries who deem the Euro too strong for them (or have retained their own currencies) bail then “its over.